Royal Ascot- Tuesday

[tenfurlongs]

Ascot 8:15-  7f Buckingham Palace Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) (0-105)

Course listed as good as of Monday afternoon, but some heavy downpours are moving through. There should be some cut in the ground, at the very least. 24 runners if they all go. #5- Daarik (5-1) is 4/3-1-0 on AW surfaces since a poor turf try on debut as a 2yo in 2018. Won a 7F race at Newcastle smartly ten days ago. Gosden puts Frankie Dettori up, ignore this one at your peril. #12- Kaeso (8-1) is 8/2-1-2 at 7F turf, and had two near misses in major handicaps at Ascot last season, losing to Cape Byron and Raising Sand. Finished seventh in Daarik's comeback race but has no AW form and will be better for that run. #1- First Contact (10-1) prefers a mile but has a win and a second at 7F. Ran well with some serious horses in Dubai last winter, then went to the sidelines after two sub-par efforts in the spring. Placing against Main Edition when last seen suggests all is well, but will need a top effort off an eight month break. #8- Mutamaasik (6-1) was progressive in his five starts as a 3yo on both AW and turf. Two-for-two at 7F, four wins in five starts. Tested for class today, may well show it. #11- Greenside (12-1) ran well as an 8yo last season, including a close-up second behind Kynren in the rich Ascot Challenge Cup on last effort. Should offer value underneath. #22- Cliffs of Capri (15-1) is 8/2-1-2 at 7F turf, ran third here in an amateur jockeys race last autumn. Good second in his comebacker twelve days ago at Newmarket, after a win in Dubai at a mile in February.

EX- 5,12/1,5,8,11,12,22  {edit: added PL- 9 Glen Shiel currently a big overlay at 40-1}

Ascot 8:50- 1m (Str) Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) 

Field of sixteen if they all start. Looking for alternatives to likely favorites #3- Circus Maximus (5-2) for Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore, last year's St. James Palace S. (GI) winner over C&D, and 4yo filly #16- Terebellum (8-1) for John Gosden/Dettori, three-for-five career, all at 10F, including GII Dahlia S. at Newmarket ten days ago. #6- Fox Chairman (7-1) progressed nicely in four starts last year, including a third to Circus Maximus going longer, and a second to Sangarius in the Hampton Court at ten panels over this course. This one will appreciate softer ground, and might just get it. #8- Mohaather (10-1) only ran twice in 2019, a GIII win going 7F in April, and a pretty good fifth in the QEII (GI) here after a six-month break. May have more to offer if ready to fire. #11- Roseman (10-1) was progressive last year, finishing second to King of Comedy in the Heron S., then just behind Fox Chairman here at Ascot. Returned from a summer break to dominate Century Dream and Accidental Agent going a mile over heavy ground at Newmarket. Would also appreciate softer going. #12- Skardu (10-1) GIII-winner has run well against top company over C&D and elsewhere. Could get lost in the wagering.

EX- 6,8/3,6,8,11,16  WIN- 11 (>10-1)  PL- 12

Ascot 9:25- 1m4f Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) 

#3- is a non-runner. Lightly-raced 3yo fillies tackle 12F, and it's hard to go past the top four in the wagering. #5- Frankly Darling (7-5) daughter of Frankel crushed AW foes by five lengths, at this distance, upon reappearance at Newcastle on June 1st. Sky is the limit with Gosden/Dettori in her corner. #9- Passion (15-1) will be nowhere near the untenable m/l odds. Only one win in four tries, but looks to benefit from sneaky fourth-place finish at 10F to the good looking Silence Please at Navan just six days ago. $1.1M Coolmore purchase, this daughter of Galileo has O'Brien/Moore at the controls.

EX- 5,9/5,8,9,11

TW 

[tenfurlongs]

Ascot 10:00- 1m4f King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)

Short field of six 3yos going 12F for the first time. Nothing fancy here. #1- Arthur's Kingdom (6-1) for O'Brien/Dettori and #2- Mogul (4-5) for O'Brien/Moore should fight it out for the win. Maybe softer ground could undo the favorite.

EX- 1,2/1,2,3,4

Ascot 10:35- 5f King's Stand Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

#1- Battaash (2-5) finished second to legendary Blue Point in the last two runnings. With that one retired, only soft ground may be able to derail his quest to make the third time the charm. #11- Liberty Beach (15-1) 3yo filly, 7/5-0-1 lifetime, gets in light and draws outside (pp9). Close-up fourth over C&D in GII Queen Mary S. last year. Facile win at 6F on soft ground at Haydock last week sets her up perfectly for this demanding uphill test.

EX- 1,11/1,2,6,8,10,11

Ascot 11:10- 1m (Str) Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Older f&m going a straight mile. #1- Magic Lily (10-1) Has done little wrong in seven turf starts (7/3-2-2) for trainer Charlie Appleby/Godolphin. Won a GII in Dubai this winter, and finished second to high-class Barney Roy in GI Jebel Hatta. Totes top weight, but good third to Terebellum at distance beyond her best sets her up for the turnback to one mile. BEST BET. #7- Miss O Connor (4-1) runs in the Lael Stable (Barbaro) colors for trainer William Haggas, with Janie Doyle aboard. Undefeated in four tries and will relish deeper going. #10- Queen Power (6-1) was beaten a head on first 3yo try last year over C&D. Returned for Royal Ascot and was fourth, beaten four lengths, by Star Catcher and Fleeting in the Ribblesdale (GII). Reappeared at Newmarket ten days ago with a solid second to Terebellum in GII Dahlia S., finishing one better than Magic Lily. Turnback to a testing mile could be just the ticket. 

WIN- 1  EX- 1,10/1,5,6,7,8,10

Ascot 11:40- 2m4f Ascot Stakes (A Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100)

Field of twenty going 2 1/2 miles to end day one. Difficult to separate the top half of the field. #10- Moon King (8-1) and #12- Land of Oz (10-1) seem to be the most consistent of the lot, and both had good return preps for today.

EX- 10,12/2,10,11,12,13,14

Good luck if you play today!

TW

[spiderjohn]

beautiful write-up--no way I can top that, so hopefully I can out-handicap it.
What did I learn from Newmarket and the Curragh? I learned that the O'Brien team is loaded and ready to go---not so much for everyone else--all coming off the forced layoff.
We shall see about Gosden/Dettori..........
The last few meets have been somewhat chalky, with the value being finding the bombs that drop in the 2nd-3rd spots for exactas and trifectas. Especially watch any O'Briens who go off at long odds.

race 1
A crapshoot where I will play a 5runner shotgun exacta box of 1-3-11-12-15
Favor Appleby/Buick with #1 FIRST CONTACT

race 2
O'Brien/Flaxman/Moore have the deserved favorite in #3 CIRCUS MAXIMUS--no reason that he can't win. Going to try to beat him with #15 BILLESDON BROOK and #16 TEREBELLUM.
Underneath I use 4-6-9-12-14-3

race 3
Gosden/Dettori are all the talk with #5 FRANKLY DARLING, and she will probably be odds-on. Stablemate #8 MISS YODA is worth a long look. Also #3 BORN WITH PRIDE.
Try part-wheels 3-5-8/3-5-8/all

race 4
A 6runner 12furlong race?? Strange......Outside of theO'Briens, #3 MOHICAN HEIGHTS looks very live imo.

race 5
#1 BATTAASH is too obvious and too short. #8 GLASS SLIPPERS beat him last out, and #11 LIBERTY BEACH always is close. Can these females win here? Probably not.....I can see #9 and #10 filling out the tri.

race 6
Tough call....I'll try Appleby/Buick again with #1 MAGIC LILY. #5 JUBILOSO is Stoute/Moore, and should return in top form. #7 MISS O'CONNOR is perfect and in good hands, and no reason #8 NAZEEF couldn't win. Stoute also has the over-looked #10 QUEEN POWER. I might box all of the above in the exacta, and could still lose money.

race 7
#1 VERDANA BLUE or ##5 DIOCLETIAN or #10 MOON KING

tough day--good luck!

[tenfurlongs]

Good luck today Spider! Agree about overlooked (overlayed) place horses keying surprising payouts underneath logical picks. I chuckle a bit when American racetracks boast how they have an average field size of 8.1 horses, compared to virtually any race in Europe. Just watch the payouts today, especially triples, for an example. BTW, your #3- Born With Pride is out of the third race.

Full list of Royal Ascot non-runners

1.15 Lethal Lunch
1.50 Bless Him
2.25 Born With Pride
4.10 Miss O Connor
4.40 Charlie D

TW

[spiderjohn]

Thanx 10f!
I’m confident that the scratches will turn up later in the week
Used the winner in the 1st but not the runner-up

Next!

[spiderjohn]

Exacta in Queen Anne, but missed the tri—big efforts from the two favorites

[cherokeescot]

Was a great race. Thought Terebellum had got away with it but classy display by Circus Maximus to just get up

[bobtailnag]

Late start for me so 2 races are over with but here's what I had/have

Kaeso
Terebellum
Miss Yoda
Mohican
Class Slipper
Nazeef
Land Of Oz

[cherokeescot]

Not impressed by ride on Mohican Heights . Had a lot of horse but left him too much to do.

[tenfurlongs]

Good to see Battaash finally exorcise the demons of Ascot. He's as good as there is at 5F. How does the exacta pay $22.00 with a 3/5 on top? Love it.

TW

[shoes]

Jun 16, 2020 10:06:15 GMT -5 tenfurlongs said:

Good to see Battaash finally exorcise the demons of Ascot. He's as good as there is at 5F. How does the exacta pay $22.00 with a 3/5 on top? Love it.

TW

That's a function of the huge fields and why I love betting them, though I couldn't quite solve the equation today. By the same token, I have to remind my self of the opposite impact when I'll have a win with a couple pf longish shots for an exacta in a short field and I am disappointed in the pay-out.

[spiderjohn]

Not my day today--didn't really see it as a strong wagering day, and only cashed two easy exactas. Fortunately kept it small.

On to Wednesday!