LARRY'S PICKS for the Kentucky Derby : Triple Crown Showdown
Apr 27, 2020 22:54:15 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Apr 27, 2020 22:54:15 GMT -5
To all of my friends here at UpInClass, I hope you are doing well!
Analysis of the field for THE KENTUCKY DERBY : THE TRIPLE CROWN SHOWDOWN! A field of 13 expect to answer the starters’ call in this first ever (and hopefully last) “virtual computer simulated” race to be run as is tradition, on “the first Saturday in May”! Our hearts go out to all who are struggling with the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the goal here is to hopefully provide a few hours away from what has been occupying everyone for the past several weeks as we try to enjoy a bit of unusual entertainment and nostalgia. Kudos to “INSPIRED ENTERTAINMENT” for their creative talents and NBC Sports for agreeing to broadcast this 3 hour special from 3:00 P.M. to 6:00 P.M. this Saturday. While much of the show will deal with a revisit of the 2015 memorable Triple Crown run by AMERICAN PHAROAH, the show will conclude with the virtual run of the computerized “Run For The Roses” pitting the 13 lifetime Triple Crown winners against one another! My analysis will be in graded ranking finishing order as I envision the relative potential for each of these champions to fare against the rest of the field. I hope everyone reading this analysis has an enjoyable day and that you will stay safe throughout these trying times!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
SECRETARIAT (1973 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – RON TURCOTTE
Affectionately known as “Big Red”, he broke a 25 year drought in becoming the first of 3 Triple Crown winners in the 70’s. Jockey Ron Turcotte rode him to a record Kentucky Derby winning time of 159 2/5 enroute to his 2nd lifetime Derby win having won it the year before on RIVA RIDGE for the same trainer Lucien Laurin. With 16 lifetime wins, he finished out of the money only once in 21 starts. In a field with plenty of speed types signed on, I see him settling and relaxing midpack until this field approaches the top of the stretch. From there, he should close stoutly into honest fractions and assume command as they pass the 8th pole! For me, he is hard to look past for the top spot!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
SECRETARIAT (1973 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – RON TURCOTTE
Affectionately known as “Big Red”, he broke a 25 year drought in becoming the first of 3 Triple Crown winners in the 70’s. Jockey Ron Turcotte rode him to a record Kentucky Derby winning time of 159 2/5 enroute to his 2nd lifetime Derby win having won it the year before on RIVA RIDGE for the same trainer Lucien Laurin. With 16 lifetime wins, he finished out of the money only once in 21 starts. In a field with plenty of speed types signed on, I see him settling and relaxing midpack until this field approaches the top of the stretch. From there, he should close stoutly into honest fractions and assume command as they pass the 8th pole! For me, he is hard to look past for the top spot!
WHIRLAWAY (1941 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – GEORGE WOOLF
While his 1941 Kentucky Derby win was accomplished beneath 5 time Derby winning jockey Eddie Arcaro, George Woolf appears poised to inherit the mount today as Arcaro is also named to ride CITATION. I personally believe that given the choice Arcaro would rather ride this war horse who finished in the money in 56 of 60 lifetime starts including 32 visits with the lensman. He won the 1941 Derby by 8 lengths which today still stands in a tie as the largest margin of victory in the Derby. Beneath Woolf or Arcaro he would appear to be the biggest threat to my top pick!
AFFIRMED (1978 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – STEVE CAUTHEN
Any runner who can win 22 out of 29 starts including a Triple Crown is a serious race horse. Young Steve Cauthen burst on the scene in the mid to late 70’s and dominated the New York racing circuit for quite awhile. Speed is his game and if he can avoid a duel with the other frontrunners he should be prominent throughout and may hang on for a major share.
SEATTLE SLEW (1977 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY- JEAN CRUGUET
This colt overcame a slow break and wide stretch run to prevail in the 1977 Derby. He has much more natural speed than he showed from the gate that day and while one of many with designs on applying pace pressure, he may finish best of the remaining speeds signed on.
CITATION (1948 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – EDDIE ARCARO
Few jockeys can claim to know their way around the Churchill Downs oval better than Mr. Arcaro. 5 lifetime Kentucky Derby wins says it all and aboard a colt who amassed 32 wins and 10 places in 45 lifetime starts, he could be in line for a “stalk and pounce” type journey just off the speeds. He could better my 5th place rating for him!
AMERICAN PHAROAH (2015 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – VICTOR ESPINOZA
I previously mentioned how SECRETARIAT broke a 25 year drought when he won the TC in 1973. This colt snapped an even longer dry spell to become the long awaited first Triple Crown winner since AFFIRMED in 1978! This earned jockey Victor Espinoza 1 of his 3 Kentucky Derby victories and propelled this colt to be the highest money winner by far in this field with $8.6 million in the bank! They were getting to him in deep stretch in 2015 and with the plethora of speed types involved I don’t see the race setting up very well for him. A midpack finish appears to be his fate in my estimation.
WAR ADMIRAL (1937 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – CHARLES KURTSINGER
Here is yet another hard hitting campaigner who loved to end his race with a “Kodak Moment”! 21 times in 26 lifetime starts he visited the Winners’ Circle yet besides his Triple Crown accolade, he might best be remembered as the horse that SEABISCUIT soundly beat in their famous match race at Pimlico in 1938. He has speed and he handled the 1937 Derby field easily but he may be up against it today!
JUSTIFY (2018 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
Multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert saddled this colt to victory in 2018 as the first winner since 1882 to be able to win the Derby without having raced as a 2 year old! He ended his career at 6 for 6 lifetime and gave jockey Mike Smith his 2nd Kentucky Derby winner having guided longshot GIACOMO to victory in 2005. He is yet another with designs on the “engine” and he gives away much in experience to this group.
COUNT FLEET (1943 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – JOHN LONGDEN
The winner of 16 of 21 lifetime starts could add more fuel to the fire as he is yet another with a style that has him forwardly placed. He would appear to need several others to not fire their best in order to better this rating!
GALLANT FOX (1930 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – EARL SANDE
Considering the era, this colt earned a significant amount of money with 328K in the bank. Loading the gate only 17 times he won 11 races including the 1930 TC series. He overcame some racing trouble to win the Derby 90 years ago and while he should employ the desirable “stalking” style, he would seemingly need much racing luck to finish better than midpack today.
OMAHA (1935 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – WILLIAM SAUNDERS
Despite his Triple Crown success, this colt liked to finish around the fringes as much as he liked to win. He only had 9 lifetime victories and unless he has suddenly developed a “killer instinct”, I’d be surprised if he makes much of an impact.
ASSAULT (1946 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – WARREN MEHRTENS
Every now and then we happen upon what can best be described as a “rags to riches” story. This colt showed little promise as a 2 year old winning only 2 of 9 starts. That said, he blossomed some at 3 and 4. He is tied with the aforementioned WHIRLAWAY and a few others in owning the largest Derby margin of victory, that being 8 lengths. The connections campaigned him long and hard making 42 lifetime starts and I don’t see him having much success against these today!
SIR BARTON (1919 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – JOHN LOFTUS
Scripture suggests to us that “The Last Shall Be First” in Matthew 20:16. While that’s all well and good, this is my script and I believe that today, “The First Shall Be Last”! SIR BARTON was our very first Triple Crown winner 100 years ago but there must be serious questions as to who he was beating back then when they were many times running for what amounts to a “stimulus check”! Strictly for Johnny Loftus fans!
LL
While his 1941 Kentucky Derby win was accomplished beneath 5 time Derby winning jockey Eddie Arcaro, George Woolf appears poised to inherit the mount today as Arcaro is also named to ride CITATION. I personally believe that given the choice Arcaro would rather ride this war horse who finished in the money in 56 of 60 lifetime starts including 32 visits with the lensman. He won the 1941 Derby by 8 lengths which today still stands in a tie as the largest margin of victory in the Derby. Beneath Woolf or Arcaro he would appear to be the biggest threat to my top pick!
AFFIRMED (1978 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – STEVE CAUTHEN
Any runner who can win 22 out of 29 starts including a Triple Crown is a serious race horse. Young Steve Cauthen burst on the scene in the mid to late 70’s and dominated the New York racing circuit for quite awhile. Speed is his game and if he can avoid a duel with the other frontrunners he should be prominent throughout and may hang on for a major share.
SEATTLE SLEW (1977 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY- JEAN CRUGUET
This colt overcame a slow break and wide stretch run to prevail in the 1977 Derby. He has much more natural speed than he showed from the gate that day and while one of many with designs on applying pace pressure, he may finish best of the remaining speeds signed on.
CITATION (1948 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – EDDIE ARCARO
Few jockeys can claim to know their way around the Churchill Downs oval better than Mr. Arcaro. 5 lifetime Kentucky Derby wins says it all and aboard a colt who amassed 32 wins and 10 places in 45 lifetime starts, he could be in line for a “stalk and pounce” type journey just off the speeds. He could better my 5th place rating for him!
AMERICAN PHAROAH (2015 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – VICTOR ESPINOZA
I previously mentioned how SECRETARIAT broke a 25 year drought when he won the TC in 1973. This colt snapped an even longer dry spell to become the long awaited first Triple Crown winner since AFFIRMED in 1978! This earned jockey Victor Espinoza 1 of his 3 Kentucky Derby victories and propelled this colt to be the highest money winner by far in this field with $8.6 million in the bank! They were getting to him in deep stretch in 2015 and with the plethora of speed types involved I don’t see the race setting up very well for him. A midpack finish appears to be his fate in my estimation.
WAR ADMIRAL (1937 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – CHARLES KURTSINGER
Here is yet another hard hitting campaigner who loved to end his race with a “Kodak Moment”! 21 times in 26 lifetime starts he visited the Winners’ Circle yet besides his Triple Crown accolade, he might best be remembered as the horse that SEABISCUIT soundly beat in their famous match race at Pimlico in 1938. He has speed and he handled the 1937 Derby field easily but he may be up against it today!
JUSTIFY (2018 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
Multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert saddled this colt to victory in 2018 as the first winner since 1882 to be able to win the Derby without having raced as a 2 year old! He ended his career at 6 for 6 lifetime and gave jockey Mike Smith his 2nd Kentucky Derby winner having guided longshot GIACOMO to victory in 2005. He is yet another with designs on the “engine” and he gives away much in experience to this group.
COUNT FLEET (1943 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – JOHN LONGDEN
The winner of 16 of 21 lifetime starts could add more fuel to the fire as he is yet another with a style that has him forwardly placed. He would appear to need several others to not fire their best in order to better this rating!
GALLANT FOX (1930 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – EARL SANDE
Considering the era, this colt earned a significant amount of money with 328K in the bank. Loading the gate only 17 times he won 11 races including the 1930 TC series. He overcame some racing trouble to win the Derby 90 years ago and while he should employ the desirable “stalking” style, he would seemingly need much racing luck to finish better than midpack today.
OMAHA (1935 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – WILLIAM SAUNDERS
Despite his Triple Crown success, this colt liked to finish around the fringes as much as he liked to win. He only had 9 lifetime victories and unless he has suddenly developed a “killer instinct”, I’d be surprised if he makes much of an impact.
ASSAULT (1946 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – WARREN MEHRTENS
Every now and then we happen upon what can best be described as a “rags to riches” story. This colt showed little promise as a 2 year old winning only 2 of 9 starts. That said, he blossomed some at 3 and 4. He is tied with the aforementioned WHIRLAWAY and a few others in owning the largest Derby margin of victory, that being 8 lengths. The connections campaigned him long and hard making 42 lifetime starts and I don’t see him having much success against these today!
SIR BARTON (1919 TRIPLE CROWN) JOCKEY – JOHN LOFTUS
Scripture suggests to us that “The Last Shall Be First” in Matthew 20:16. While that’s all well and good, this is my script and I believe that today, “The First Shall Be Last”! SIR BARTON was our very first Triple Crown winner 100 years ago but there must be serious questions as to who he was beating back then when they were many times running for what amounts to a “stimulus check”! Strictly for Johnny Loftus fans!
LL
I'm thinking like Bev here 
,it's between Big Red and AP.Stone cold lead pipe lock exacta.
