2020 Fountain of Youth

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Race 14 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade II)

1 Candy Tycoon
2 Makabim
3 Masterday
4 The Falcon
5 Dennis' Moment
6 As Seen On Tv
7 Country Grammer
8 Gear Jockey
9 Liam's Lucky Charm
10 Shotski
11 Ete Indien
12 Chance It

Fountain of Youth nominations - past performances.

www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-GP-20200229-560063

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EQUIBASE: Odds & Entries
www.equibase.com/static/entry/GP022920USA14-EQB.html

[Badactor]

My first inclination

is the Lookin At Lucky...

Making second start of 2020 - Lifetime 4 starts 2w 2p 0s - Go, Paco, Go!

[tenfurlongs]

$400,000 Grade II offering 85 Derby Points, and they got this field?! There are two maidens, and three maiden-only winners. Makabim, Masterday and The Falcon draw posts 2-3-4, to the detriment of real contenders starting from the parking lot. $4,000 to enter, enjoy your skybox seats. At least they should get shuffled out to the back of the field quickly as all the speed comes over on them, lol.

From a pace standpoint, this seems to lean towards above normal early fractions, especially with a lot of contenders stuck out wide. I'm on board with Dell, I think #6- As Seen on TV (9-2) has a lot going for him here. He's shown incremental improvement each time out, got a nice eight-week break to recover from the battle in the Mucho Macho Man, and has a solid workout pattern leading up to Saturday. He's also fortunate to be in a race without Tiz the Law and Sole Volante, the two putative "best-in-Florida" 3yos at this stage, whose schedules took them elsewhere. Paco Lopez can make me holler "WTF?" sometimes, but: with the Ortiz brothers absent, Johnny V. jumping off the rail horse to ride for the first time on the drawn-wide Shotski who shipped in from LRL for this, and Javy on a Chad Brown JBM layoff horse whose early fractions could have been timed with a sundial, I'll trust Paco to get his mount in the right spot. Kelly Breen knows what to do with a good horse (see: Ruler on Ice, Pants on Fire) and the breeding suggests that there is more to come as the distances increase. Even if he turns out to be less than a Triple Crown contender, he's got a terrific chance to take down the FOY.

TW 

[tc]

As Seen on TV, You should Chance It on Ete Indien.

[shoes]

I think both Ete Indien and Chance it would be major players but it is such a short run to the turn, does one or both try to clear and if they do, how much early energy does that use up? or do they tuck in and can they do so effectively? I am historically lousy at GP, so you can discount this, but I, too would favor ASOT, because of the post and fav Dennis also would seem to be a beneficiary of the draw.

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Mr. Bobtail posted this on the main forum... Good Stuff!

The Fountain Of Youth

The speed of the speed, Candy Tycoon 15/1, is coming out of the 1-hole and with the gate being so close to the turn Franco doesn't have to push the pedal to the floor right out of the gate if he doesn't want to and can leave a little more gas in the tank. I mention this because it could give Candy a chance to cash a check in the exotics.

#5, Dennis' Moment 2/1 looks to be something special as the comment line in his maiden win at Elp “Demolished the field” portends more to come – and it did when winning the G3 Iroquois at CD woth the comments line “Cruised the final 1-16”. Unfortunately he stumbled badly in the BCJuv.. Don't know what his odds will be when the bell rings but I know it will be low and I know I won't me on him.

#6 As Seen On TV 9/2. I like this horse – High % trainer and high % jockey. He's been up front in all 4 of his races 4/2-2-0 and I would be happy with 5/1 or so. I don't think he'll be trying to keep pace with the speed but he will be very close to it and, hopefully, will have a clear path to the wire.

#7 Country Grammar, 15/1 – Castellano and Chad Brown - Always need to take a second look with a combo like that. First race was on the grass so toss that one. He won is maiden race on dirt and did it easily – BUT it was soooo sloooow. I suspect 15/1 drops down with the first odds update. Looking only at the races and I wouldn't give him a second look but looking at the connection has my cause to consider. I would have to put him in the exotics because I wouldn't want to lose a pick-3 or an exacta or trifecta because I tossed those connections.

#9 Liam's Lucky Charm – would have to at least consider him in the exotics. He never missed the board at GP 5/2-1-2

#10 Shotski 10/1 This one might be the one that will try to go with Dennis early. His young trainer, O'Dwyer, has sent him early in his last two races but I think his only hope is to hold him back 4 or 5 lengths until after the far turn. JR get's the call in this one and he's an excellent route rider (26%). If it was my call I'd tell JR to ride the way you think is best.

#11 Ete Indian 8/1 Another one that certainly has the creds to be a serious threat. In his last race, The Holy Bull, it was a 2-horse race between the Indian and Tizthelaw. While going down the stretch and it became time to assert their intentions, Thelaw made his move but the Indian just didn't have an answer. Either Thelaw was just the superior or The Indian just wasn't ready to show his best effort. He's another speed type so you have to guess if he'll be able to stay the course up front with Dennis. Or, will Biancone hold home back and try to make one big run late?

#12 Chance It 7/2 He's a true speedster also. 6/4-2-0 and has already earned $444K. He's also out run his breeding as the being the son of a $2,500.00 sire. All his races have been at GP so you know he loves the course. I'm thinking (hoping) he tries to to take the lead after getting around the near turn and wears out the front runners.

A ton of speed usually means looking for a quality closer. There's only one “S” type runner in here and he's 50/1 right now. There's only one “P” type runner on here and he, too, is 50/1 right now. Right know I'm looking at horses that have the speed but prefer to sit just behind the speed early in the race – like As Seen In TV. And I think I'm going to take a shot with Chad Browns horse also.

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SCRATCHES... Makabim & Chance It

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