LARRY'S PICKS for the 143rd Preakness Stakes!
May 17, 2018 8:34:41 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on May 17, 2018 8:34:41 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 143rd Preakness Stakes, the 2nd jewel in the Triple Crown! The “Curse of Apollo” is no more as JUSTIFY became the first Kentucky Derby winner since 1882 who had not raced as a Juvenile. The talented son of SCAT DADDY gave trainer Bob Baffert his 5th Kentucky Derby winner in the last 21 years! Keeping with tradition, a much smaller field of 8 will answer the starters’ call in Baltimore this Saturday and given his level of dominance thus far, the road to the “Winners’ Circle” would seemingly go through JUSTIFY. As usual, my analysis will be in the order of favoritism as I see the betting public setting the post time odds, with my personal “Selection” page on display at the end. I hope you enjoy the 143rd Preakness Stakes!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(#7) JUSTIFY 3-5 JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
When 1 of the 3 prime speeds failed to join the remaining pacemakers in Louisville it did not take long for jockey Mike Smith to take control of the race enroute to his 2nd Kentucky Derby win. This SCAT DADDY colt is now a perfect 4 for 4 as he tries to claim the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown. Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race 6 times including the previous 4 times that he brought the Kentucky Derby winner to Baltimore. He is a trainer who can keep a horse going well once he gets him where he needs to be. He projects as the main speed and is clearly the horse to beat!
(#5) GOOD MAGIC 7-2 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
This Kentucky bred trained by Chad Brown made a menacing move toward the leaders 2 weeks back as they came to the top of the stretch but he simply could not get by the better horse in JUSTIFY. The 2017 Juvenile champion at least finally revisited the speed figure he established in that Breeders’ Cup race last November 4th. He will need to take another step forward if he hopes to narrow the gap between him and the favorite especially if he has designs on duplicating the 2007 victorious effort in the Preakness by his sire, the great CURLIN!
(#4) DIAMOND KING 8-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
This Kentucky bred by QUALITY ROAD has 4 wins in 6 lifetime starts including the ungraded Federico Tesio Stake at Laurel last out. He was scratched out of the Peter Pan Stakes last Saturday to await this spot. While he moves way up in class here Trainer John Servis conditioned SMARTY JONES to 2/3rds of the 2004 Triple Crown and he entices Javier Castellano to take the mount. Many will recall that Castellano won this race last year on longshot CLOUD COMPUTING, but few may remember back to 2006 when he guided another longshot, BERNARDINI to victory in the Preakness. One of several “stalkers” signed on, he will likely try to keep the pacesetter within his sights and given a good trip, he could gain a share if he takes a step forward.
(#8) BRAVAZO 9-1 JOCKEY – LUIS SAEZ
This son of AWESOME AGAIN ran pretty well in Louisville finishing 6th after being in striking range to midstretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is no stranger to Triple Crown race success and he calls upon Luis Saez to replace Luis Contreras who opts to ride another Lukas charge in SPORTING CHANCE. The Grade II Risen Star winner is another stalker who could be in line for a minor share especially if others falter.
(#1) QUIP 10-1 JOCKEY – FLORENT GEROUX
The Grade II Tampa Bay Derby winner in his penultimate start followed that up with a 2nd place finish in the Grade I Arkansas Derby on April 14th. A “pace presser” by nature, he may be the one closest to JUSTIFY early on but he will need clever handling in order to save something for the stretch drive. While most horses offer their best in making their 3rd start following a layoff, this colt actually ran his worst race in that scenario as a 2 year old albeit in a Grade II Stake and with trouble lines. All told, he is a tricky read at best!
(#2) LONE SAILOR 12-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
This MAJESTIC WARRIOR colt ran on for 8th in the Kentucky Derby following a slow break from the gate, a habit he has exhibited in the past. Not as accomplished as most in here with only the Maiden victory on the resume, he did just miss in the Grade II Louisiana Derby 2 back. He is one of several who would not mind some moisture in the track and given that likelihood, completing the bottom of gimmicks seems a distinct possibility.
(#6) TENFOLD 17-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
This well bred son of CURLIN out of a TAPIT mare is the least experienced runner in the field with only 3 lifetime starts so a case could be made for upside potential moving forward. The winner of his first 2 starts, he faltered late when in contention in the Grade I Arkansas Derby last out and he ended up splitting the field. He sports an improving speed figure pattern when several in here regressed figure-wise when comparing their penultimate start to their latest outing. Campaigned by strong connections, he could move forward again this week. He seems a genuine “wild card” in a race that appears otherwise quite predictable!
(#3) SPORTING CHANCE 24-1 JOCKEY – LUIS CONTRERAS
This expensive son of TIZNOW exhibited his class early on in taking the Grade I Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga as a Juvenile. While he hasn’t won since, he was 3rd to GOOD MAGIC 2 back in the Grade II Bluegrass before finishing a troubled trip 4th in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard as my top pick. He has more speed than he was able to display that day and he could rebound with a much better run this time out.
“SELECTIONS”
(#7) JUSTIFY 3-5 JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
Drawn toward the outside JUSTIFY should still be able to clear into the first turn and this race would appear to be his to win or lose as he shows up as the potential lone speed signed on. Trainer Bob Baffert has never lost the Preakness when saddling the Kentucky Derby winner in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown and he appears well positioned to capture his 7th overall Preakness victory and give Mike Smith his 2nd Preakness win. Catch him in the “Winners’ Circle”!
(#6) TENFOLD 17-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
This colt by CURLIN may have been closer than ideal to the pace set by MAGNUM MOON last out in the Arkansas Derby negating his ability to kick on in the later stages. Nonetheless, he improved figure-wise over his prior race and another forward move could be realized in this race as he is making only his 4th lifetime start. I look for Ricardo Santana to keep him 3-4 lengths off the pace on Saturday and then finish well for a major share.
(#5) GOOD MAGIC 7-2 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
The Juvenile champion tried to make a race of it 2 weeks back but JUSTIFY was simply too good. He doesn’t get a better pace set up this time around as the Derby winner projects as lone speed but he surely figures for a money finish again.
(#2) LONE SAILOR 12-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
While the habitual slow break in the Derby was expected, this colt had an overall worse trip than the Titanic as he struggled with a severe traffic laden rail when the serious running was needed. With the promise of wet weather, the Saratoga Maiden breaking romp jumps off the page and quite possibly clear sailing is all this “Sailor” needs to figure in the money placings!
LL
