Post by bobtailnag on May 9, 2018 8:07:09 GMT -5
We just saw the 6th consecutive favorite win the Derby in a 20 horse field. Is this what we wanted? We seem to now have a couple of trainers coming in with half dozen horses, almost always representing the top 3 to 5 favorites in the field. Will we ever see another Mine That Bird? We used to see entries from all over the country having won and/or placed in all kinds of different stakes – some not even graded. Now the only horses that are allowed to enter the Derby must win and/or place to certain “elite” graded stakes. That state there are about 35 different races that can horse can win to qualify for the Derby. That's true but almost 20 of them award a maximum of 10 points for a win. If a horse wins 3 of them they earn a total of 30 points. This year only one horse in the field had qualified with 30 or less points – Instilled Regard. If that had been a NASCAR race, Instilled Regard would have been my pickup truck. The point being that if you want to enter the Derby you'll probably still have to win or place in one of the elite” preps,
When they announced the new points system and limiting the number of specific races they have to compete in to qualify, I didn't pay much attention to it, didn't try to think it through what it really meant or how it would effect the quality, not necessarily of the race itself, but the quality experience that race gave to us – the players. I always looked forward to Derby day – as I'm sure you did too. (Time for a little sarcasm →) If the last 6 races is a harbinger of what's to continue every May then I'm sure my viewing and participation will be especially enhanced looking forward to watching yet another 3/1 winner crossing the Derby wire first. Pursuant to the past 6 runnings, here are the odds of the previous 20 winners: 12-15-21-8-21-2-5-6-50-4-13-20-10-2-31-8-4-6-29-9. Note that only once in those 2 decades did 2 consecutive winners pay less than 5/1.
I'm sure all the future Derby winners will not be the 3/1 favorites, but I would not be surprised if more than half pay less than 5/1. I hope what they were trying to do was actually make the race more competitive, and actually they did but now it's competitive mostly between between the favorites. They wanted to eliminate certain types of horses that qualified but, over the decades, proved to be the ones that consistantly finished up the track. Like the 2yr olds who qualified because they won high purse races at 2 but never improved enough, or at all, to be competitive at age three. And those that earned entry by winning enough money from races an minor tracks. I can accept that. But by also forcing owners & trainers to require them to compete in a handful of selected grated stakes, some horses that would have been competitive, won't be allowed to enter because they finished 4th or 5th in one of those “elite” races or won't even get a chance to enter one of those. Only a couple of those “elite” runners will get points from those preps Again – Mine That Bird. Would not have been allowed to run under the new rules. Do you think you would like to see a horse kept out of the derby field who has won a enough money from graded stake but it wasn't from the “right”graded stakes? Don't you think that horse deserves to be in that field?
