Tampa 12/4

[tenfurlongs]

R2- Not a bettable race for me, but #5- Embossed (3-1) has credentials. The dam is a MGSW going long on the dirt, so they probably want to give this filly every chance to do the same. Being by Medaglia d'Oro, and the dam (Golden Velvet) is out of Caress, I'll be waiting for her to go to the grass for the first time. When they sent Golden Velvet to Hard Spun, the result was Lucullan, the GSW trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. Stay tuned.  Result: 5,6,4 Tri- $55.75 Embossed was impressive winning by 4 1/2 in good time, but the triple, with the 32-1 longest shot in the six horse field getting third, paid very well.

R3- Outside of the 2-1 m/l favorite out of Kitten's Joy, who is no sure thing, this race is chaotic in my view. Get out the dart board. Pass.

R5- #1- English Secret (15-1) knows one way to race, on the engine. Should face pace pressure from two or three others, but could also shoot right to an open lead from the rail and hang on until deep stretch. #3- General (4-1) maiden-breaker and n2l efforts were both solid, now goes back to Fisher who puts red-hot Suarez up, expecting good things. #5- Garbar Boy (20-1) broke his maiden at GP for a tag last year, then away from the races until this August, with a dull pop-and-stop effort. Delgado takes over the training, puts a strong half-mile into him 11 days out, gets the steady Batista in the saddle. Maybe not a winning spot, but must-use underneath. #6- Travel Agent (6-1) son of Kitten's Joy showed some turf talent in two MSW tries at TAM last winter, then finally found competitive level when dropped down to low MdClm in NJ. Will probably have too much to do in first try against winners, but should get some pace to run into. #8- False Info (3-1) looked promising when in the Pletcher barn at GP last winter, then Bruce Brown had a few useful mid-claimer tries with him until a too high, too far effort at LRL. O'Connell takes over now, puts Gallardo aboard, nice 5F drill last week. The likely favorite. #9- On a Spree (2-1) Gary Contessa will have a string at TAM this winter for the first time, looked like Johnny Diaz in the winner's circle the other day, eh Bev? Kiaran had this one for the first four starts, then went to LRL with Potts, where he broke his maiden easily on the front end. $250k son of Speightstown clearly a classy individual, but can bet against in first try with winners despite presence of leading jockey Camacho.

Tri- 3,6,8/3,5,6,8,9/1,3,5,6,8,9  Result: 10,9,6 Tri- $417.80 !  Tough to come up with that winner ($94.40) from low pct. connections and a long layoff. Did graduate here in MSW company, but then the wheels came off.  

more to follow...

TW

[1hooper]

TW,how much snow did you get?

[tenfurlongs]

R7- OClm 32000n2x going a mile on the grass, loaded with early speed and a couple of useful stakes-types. #1- Monkey Mind (4-1) prolific turf winner (5-11) finds a field heavy on early pace types, can rate under Mena just off the lead and get the jump on the rest. #3- Rosebud's Hope (3-1) another high pct. turf winner (5-13) takes another crack at n2x, should have a nice stalking trip under Morales and have every chance down the lane. #4- Tobago (5-1) lightly-raced 3yo filly is a half to Beautician, Mo Tom and Red Ruby, so they may go back to dirt in the future, but there is plenty of turf in this one's paper too. Nice win at LRL 5F turf, then a short layoff after a hiccup getting ready for a Spa race. Comebacker at KEE was much better than it looks on paper, winner Stillwater Cove and runner up Change of Control would be 1-9 in this spot. Taking a positive view. #6- Magic Hatter (8-1) has no wins this season but always makes a good run turning for home, an asset that can't be overlooked in this group. Could get lost in the wagering and spice up the triple. #9- Madame Milan (7-2) has had a series of stops and starts during her career, but either AP race from last year would be hard to deny here. Short layoff since debacle at KD under questionable ride by Geroux, steady series of drills at Fair Hill. Won't let Delacour beat me with this one if she's jumping out of her skin and flying late with Centeno at the controls. #11- Gardenista (AE)(9-2) is also working bullets at Fair Hill for her return. Consistent sort was overmatched in Va Oaks last time, should clear this condition quickly. Love the Curlin x Valbenny breeding! 

Tri- 1,3,9,11/1,3,6,9,11/1,3,4,6,9,11  Result: 9,3,11 Tri- $39.70  Madame Milan was along in time paying a generous $8.40 and topping a profitable triple wager, surprising for second choice/favorite/fourth choice. Monkey Mind held well for fourth, only beaten three lengths and can be bet back in a field with less pace pressure. The #8 just blasted to the front and set testing early fractions (23 1/5, 46 4/5) that pulled the other pace types along too quickly.  

R8- should be all about the 1,8. Exacta may come back under $8. Pass.

R9- #8- Sir Hoski (3-1) enters this off of a big mdclm win at GPW. Kitten's Joy gelding looks to be on the improve, Nihei ducks n1x/n2l at GP for the easier spot here, jockey Morales off to a fine start at the meeting. #9- Professional (4-1) is also in good form, Blair reaches out to Gallardo and that may be enough.

Tri- 8,9/2,5,7,8,9/2,4,5,7,8,9  Result: 9,5,8 Tri - $69.85  Managed to split the m/l favorites with a 9-1 shot who had sub-par connections but decent turf form, and the #8 drifted up to 5-1. Small profit for the day.

TW

[DoctorDisaster]

over a foot at my house and I'm not far from TW.......sore.....need bute
just looking over the fifth for Festivus.
6 Travel Agent 6/1,would be my choice here.
I'll see if something in the 7th looks any good.
3 Rosebud's Hope 3/1,looks best here,not too keen with the price but Travel Agent may not see that ML,tough choice.I'll drink on it

[tenfurlongs]

Hi Hoop! Started snowing around 1PM kickoff on Sunday, finally stopped at 4AM this morning. 23" total. Shoveled four times, and I have somebody who plows the lower driveway. Got my cardio for the week... . Eighth largest snowfall on record for Albany, biggest since Superstorm of Mar. 1993!

I suspect you had mostly rain.

TW

[1hooper]

2" of slush Monday,3" of wet snow this morning. Purchased my first snowblower 4 weeks ago, saved me some back strain.
Friend in Glenmont says she got about 18".
Love that squirrel deterrent. I put axle grease on my bird feeder poles.

[propro]

Tom, check your mail today. Be careful shoveling that much snow! I'm with Hoop on the machinery. I've had my snowblower for 14 years and it still runs great. Mine will handle up to 23" of snow in one shot, so I don't have to go out until the storm is done. Not sure how big your driveway is or how much you pay for the plow, but the savings might pay for the snowblower and you could clear that yourself. Always a discount late in the season when the big box stores are trying to clear them out.

[tenfurlongs]

Daily summary: 2/3  bet: $72.00  return: $109.55  net: +$37.55

Meet summary: 5/15  bet: $271.25  return: $186.10  net: -$85.15

Need to whittle down the wager amounts a little bit without giving up value. A work in progress.

TW