jolyb
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Posts: 951
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Post by jolyb on May 6, 2018 10:19:10 GMT -5
Can anyone help me understand the source of the buzz on My Boy Jack. Very early in the wagering his odds moved from a ML of 30-1 to a 5-1 third or fourth choice. I kept expecting this to self-correct as more money poured into the pool, but it never really changed, and in fact I think he went off as the 6.7-1 second choice.
I couldn't find anything to explain this rather dramatic movement. Even if you start with the proposition that the ML was somewhat high (perhaps 20-1 would have been better, but linemakers have their own issues to deal with), there were so many other horses who deserved to have lower odds that having him go off as second choice was a head scratcher. Personally I never considered him as a potential winner - he always seemed to fit the profile of one of those kind of slow runners who was capable of passing a lot of very tired horses in the lane and could end up in the lower rungs of the super. |
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Post by orioleboy on May 6, 2018 10:38:45 GMT -5
Joly. I can’t figure this out either. He was second choice!!!! The only thing I can think of is it was a combination of the fact that they thought he was a good mudder, he was a legitimate closer, and people named Jack were betting on him. It was fine by me as all the money he took jacked up the odds on the other horses. Good Magic at 10-1 was a joke. He should have been second choice. The exacta with Justify was $70!! I was very happy with that as I had a nice exacta box of Jutify and GM.
Steve
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gam
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Post by gam on May 6, 2018 10:57:09 GMT -5
What is odd, perhaps, is that the offshore books had him at around 5-1 early in the week. How did they know?
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jacckk8
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Post by jacckk8 on May 6, 2018 11:47:33 GMT -5
Ok..my take on JACK...I actually thought he was a contender....though I really felt Justify would win....and he did....I saw/envisioned Jack closing a ton..hoping for a fast pace and dry track. In reality....I think he got off like 19th..as I only saw one replay...and unless less I am wrong, I think he was moving pretty quickly at the end...to finish a decent 5th place. For a cheap $20K......I think he beat some pricey horses if you will. Don't give up on a horse named Jack....they keep trying! Also, a guy down in Ft. Myers/Naples owns part of the horse..lot of money down there..thus a lot of Fl money was probably bet from down there..lol  Jack I wonder if I would have written this if my name was Tony??? |
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Post by frangooch on May 6, 2018 12:03:41 GMT -5
I liked him at 30/1, not 5-1. Had him on the bottom of some stuff that Bolt killed for me ;-(.
What struck me was how much money came in so fast. His odds went low and stayed there. That can't all be small bettors and newbie money, can it?
Jack actually was flying at the end. Got stopped near the top of the stretch or may have at least gotten 4th.
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jolyb
UpInClass Member
Posts: 951
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Post by jolyb on May 6, 2018 12:40:54 GMT -5
Ok..my take on JACK...I actually thought he was a contender....though I really felt Justify would win....and he did....I saw/envisioned Jack closing a ton..hoping for a fast pace and dry track. In reality....I think he got off like 19th..as I only saw one replay...and unless less I am wrong, I think he was moving pretty quickly at the end...to finish a decent 5th place. For a cheap $20K......I think he beat some pricey horses if you will. Don't give up on a horse named Jack....they keep trying! Also, a guy down in Ft. Myers/Naples owns part of the horse..lot of money down there..thus a lot of Fl money was probably bet from down there..lol Jack I wonder if I would have written this if my name was Tony??? Jack, that's kind of funny. The local paper here in Hartford, CT was featuring My Boy Jack all week because a local business owner in West Hartford is a part of Don't Tell My Wife Stables, which is one of the three partnerships to have an interest in Jack. I would suppose that each of those partnerships have quite a few partners. If money was bet by each of those who had some interest in this modestly priced horse, that could add up to a lot of money. Then combine that with the additional money from every casual bettor who is either named Jack or has a son or nephew named Jack and you have a precipitous odds drop.
Following that logic, I guess there weren't as many golfers named Billy or smallish people named Solomon. 
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