LARRY'S PICKS for the Breeders' Cup Races on Sat. 11/02/19!
Oct 31, 2019 11:53:54 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Oct 31, 2019 11:53:54 GMT -5
Analysis of the “BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS”, racings’ $28,000,000.00 weekend! Expanded to 2 days in 2007, this edition of LARRY’S PICKS will analyze the Saturday menu with 9 events contested at varying distances over both dirt and turf. The 9 Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita today will begin with the 4th race.
With full, typically well balanced fields to decipher I can’t promise to uncover another score like the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 that I gave out in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Mile, but on the heels of my winning my 14th lifetime berth into the Horse Player World Series just this past Saturday, I can promise you that the time and effort has gone into the analysis to give us a fighting chance to make some money! To all those reading my analysis and playing the 2019 Breeders’ Cup, I wish you nothing but the best of luck!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 14 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous “old world” IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
4 FOURTH RACE (2:55 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade I)
7 Furlongs on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(1) COVFEFE has shown an affinity for this long sprint distance while taking her last 2 races including the Grade I Test Stakes at Saratoga 2 back. In a race where seemingly several may have designs on the lead, she should get a good stalking trip from her inside draw and may prove best when the serious running begins! (4) COME DANCING has also run well at this distance and she captured the Grade I Ballerina Stakes 2 back. My top 2 could be difficult to separate when they hit the wire. (8) DAWN THE DESTROYER should be far back early on but may unleash a powerful late kick into what should prove to be a solid early pace. Possibly the best bred runner for this distance, she will be a price and could spice up the gimmicks beneath the favorites. (9) SPICED PERFECTION is another late runner with an enviable record at this track and distance. Castellano opts off to ride COME DANCING but Johnny V. won’t hurt her chances as he climbs aboard for the first time!
5 FIFTH RACE (3:33 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I)
5 Furlongs on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(9) FINAL FRONTIER ships from New York for Thomas Albertrani following a victory in a swiftly run ungraded stakes race at Belmont. The 4 year old colt by GHOSTZAPPER will turn back a furlong to a distance he is superbly bred for. I look for Luis Saez to employ “stalk and pounce” tactics and he gets the nod to post the upset over this extremely well matched field. (10) EDDIE HASKELL just missed in a Grade II prep race for this and he has a solid overall record at the distance. The beaten favorite last out, he was shuffled in traffic a bit but could be right there on his best. (6) STORMY LIBERAL shipped to Dubai in March for the Group I Al Quoz Sprint Stakes and the trip may have taken something out of him. Returning in August he has recorded mirror image speed figure results while racing evenly in 3 Graded Stakes races. Trainer Peter Miller entices John Velazquez to take the mount and the defending champion in this race may be ready to bounce back with a peak performance. Look for him late, if at all! (7) LEINSTER is another late runner who could be formidable with a heady ride from Tyler Gaffalione culminating in a well timed move to the leaders.
6 SIXTH RACE (4:10 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile (Gr. I)
1Mile on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(3) SPUN TO RUN is a cleverly named son of HARD SPUN who is 2 for 2 at this flat mile distance. Drawn perfectly to stalk what could be a modest pace, he could prevail beneath new pilot, Irad Ortiz. (5) OMAHA BEACH has won 4 straight races including 2 consecutive Grade I Stakes. He makes only his 2nd start since April but he should be respected as the horse to beat with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the irons! (8) BLUE CHIPPER has dominated large fields in Korea enroute to 6 straight victories and 7 for 8 lifetime. The altered son of TIZNOW could be good enough to compete against this group and at a big price! (2) IMPROBABLE competed in Triple Crown events earlier this year and was favored in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He turns back from 9 furlongs as he exits the Pennsylvania Derby, again as the beaten favorite. Not one to rely on for the top spot, he nonetheless figures for a piece!
7 SEVENTH RACE (4:54 P.M. EST)
Maker’s Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade I)
1 ¼ Miles on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(2) SISTERCHARLIE needs no introduction as the defending champ in this event and owner of 7 Grade I victories. John Velazquez retains the mount and he will likely time his late move perfectly and run by them all in deep stretch. Take the short price on top and look for value underneath! (8) CASTLE LADY is a lightly raced 3 year old who has much more upside potential than most in here. The winner of her first 2 lifetime starts, she improved considerably the 2nd time out with the debut behind her. Now she makes her 2nd start following a 4 month break and her effort in the prep for this was solid enough considering a serious race horse in CAMBIER PARC was the lone runner to beat her last out in the Grade I QEII Cup at Keeneland. Regular rider Mickael Barzalona takes the call and I could see her taking another step forward and possibly complete the exacta. (5) MIRTH would seemingly only need to discourage the runner drawn to his right, THAIS in order to control the pace and he could take this field a long way on the engine. (12) FANNY LOGAN is a perfect 5 for 5 at this distance albeit against lesser. She seems a must use if spreading in vertical exotics.
8 EIGHTH RACE (5:36 P.M. EST)
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade I)
6 Furlongs on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(3) FIRENZE FIRE was much too close to the pace last out when losing the Grade I Vosburgh by a nose to IMPERIAL HINT. I expect Irad Ortiz to take back and employ closing tactics in this field dominated by speed types. He can post the upset with a perfect ride and a well timed move! (4) MITOLE has 3 Grade I victories on his resume in 2019 and 5 overall wins in 6 starts. He will need to rate off the early pace to show his best but appears strictly the horse to beat! (8) LANDESKOG is a lightly raced 3 year old by MUNNINGS who ran to his Tomlinson distance potential last out when 2nd in the Grade II Gallant Bob at Parx. He needs to avoid the speed duel but could take another step forward. (1) CATALINA CRUISER seeks his 4th straight and is the veritable “horse for the course” with his 2 for 2 record here.
9 NINTH RACE (6:20 P.M. EST)
TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade I)
1 Mile on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(10) WITHOUT PAROLE moves into the Chad Brown barn while returning from a 5+ month hiatus. Working steadily since September and with Lasix being introduced, this winner of his first 4 lifetime starts including the Group I St. James Palace Stakes as a 3 year old should be ready to “fire fresh”! In a race that has been very good to LARRY’S PICKS followers over the years, let’s see if we can add another high priced BC Mile winner to the bio page! (9) CIRCUS MAXIMUS has kept good company in Europe enroute to winning 2 Group I affairs this year and he ships in for strong connections. He adds Lasix and the hood and I expect him to be forwardly placed and prominent throughout. (11) UNI is a distance specialist who also owns 2 Grade I victories this year. She may be running on best as they enter the stretch. (6) GOT STORMY has been in the trifecta 11 of 12 times trying this distance and she captured the Grade I Fourstardave at Saratoga 2 back. Drawn perfectly in midpack, she should enjoy a good stalking trip as she tries to get the best of this male dominated field. (1) SUEDOIS utilized the same prep schedule that led to him completing the superfecta in this event in 2017 at Del Mar. While his last 2 Euro riders have opted off today, Javier Castellano picks up the mount and he could garner a share from his hedge draw!
10 TENTH RACE (7:00 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade I)
1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(4) MIDNIGHT BISOU is the morning line and will be the deserving post time betting favorite as she hopes to increase her current 7 race winning streak! Expect Mike Smith to have her perfectly positioned throughout and prevail as the shortest priced winner on the card. (1) PARADISE WOODS drew the rail and should be able to utilize her tactical speed to her best advantage beneath Abel Cedillo. (3) STREET BAND upset the Grade I Cotillion Stakes last out and may not have cared for the sloppy conditions at Saratoga in the Alabama Stakes 2 back. She should get a bit of pace to close into and she may be along for a share. (11) BLUE PRIZE is another late threat who may duplicate her 4th place finish in this event last year.
11 ELEVENTH RACE (7:40 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade I)
1 ½ Miles on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $4,000,000.00
(9) BRICKS AND MORTAR enters this event riding a 6 race winning streak, 4 of which were Grade I Stakes. The only potential knock in the likely favorite is that he has never been this distance when many others have significant positive experience at the marathon. Nonetheless, he sports a series of A.M. moves since his last that suggest readiness and I would expect him to be good enough to run these down through the lane. (10) OLD PERSIAN has won more than half of his starts on turf including 5 victories at this distance. He figures for a major share for strong European connections. (1) ZULU ALPHA tends to perform best on a course rated less than “firm” but should get a good ground saving trip from the hedge and he could crash the trifecta at a big price! (12) CHANNEL MAKER was mistreated at the post draw and will need expert handling to utilize his natural speed yet save something for the stretch drive.
12 TWELFTH RACE (8:44 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade I)
1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $6,000,000.00
(7) HIGHER POWER lost all chance to make it back to back Grade I victories when he stumbled badly at the start of the Awesome Again Stakes last out. 2 back he won the Pacific Classic at this distance at Del Mar. He has worked well since and he might be ready to take another step forward for trainer John Sadler from a stalking posture. He is worth a long look in a wide open affair. (8) MCKINZIE failed at odds on in the Awesome Again finishing 2nd but continued his streak of 7 straight exacta finishes here at Santa Anita. Trainer Bob Baffert replaced Mike Smith with Joel Rosario after the loss and I would expect Rosario to have the colt forwardly placed throughout and he would be dangerous on his best! (6) ELATE is a 5 year old mare by MEDALIA D’ORO flaunting her perfect 3 for 3 distance record as she takes on the colts for the first time. She is not without a chance for potent connections. (10) VINO ROSSO went wire to wire over 4 rivals in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup but suffered the wrath of the stewards for a bumping incident in the stretch. The winner of the Grade I Gold Cup over this track and distance in May should have designs on the engine today and will have to be caught. (11) CODE OF HONOR and/or (5) YOSHIDA also deserve looks if spreading in exotics, especially underneath.
LL
