Santa Anita Track Bias?
Oct 28, 2019 17:14:45 GMT -5
Post by 1hooper on Oct 28, 2019 17:14:45 GMT -5
Watchmaker did a study from 10-12 through 10-26,posted at breederscup.com.
Let's get the turf results right out of the way because they were unremarkable. There were 31 turf races run the last 10 racing days at Santa Anita, and 12 were won by speed (including four front running winners) for a success rate of 39%. There were also no special trends over the three full or partial weeks the 10 cards covered. This week, before Sunday, there were nine turf races at Santa Anita and three (33%) were won by speed. Last week, six of the 12 turf races there (50%) were won by speed, including three by front-runners. And in the three cards we looked at from two weeks ago, three of 10 turf races (30%) were won by speed, including one front-running winner.
Dirt is a different matter. There were 41 dirt sprints on the last 10 cards at Santa Anita, and 28 of them (68%) were won by what I define as speed, including seven front-running winners. Notably, speed improved from week to week. In the three cards looked at two weeks ago, speed won seven of 14 sprints (50%), including two front-running winners. In the full week last week, speed won 13 of 17 sprints (76%), including three front-running winners. And this week, before Sunday, speed won eight of 10 dirt sprints (80%), including two front-running winners.
Let's check out dirt routes. There were 16 such races the last 10 cards at Santa Anita, and 10 of them (63%) were won by speed, including four front-running winners. The week by week breakdown is as follows: In the three cards looked at two weeks ago, three of five dirt routes (60%) were won by speed, including one front-running winner. In the full week last week, two of five dirt routes (40%) were won by speed. This week, prior to Sunday, five of six dirt routes were won by speed (83%), including three front-running winners.
My view on this data is, the relatively low percentage of front-running speed winners to overall speed winners suggests that there is not a developing, or existing, speed bias on the main track at Santa Anita that is so dominating as to render secondary all other handicapping considerations. That said, it is undeniable that there is a trend over this given period where it has become increasingly preferable to be very close, if not right on the early pace on dirt at Santa Anita.
However, it is also critical to keep in mind that track biases can be fickle, and can often disappear as quickly as they surface due to weather (which is not a factor right now in Southern California), or adjustments in track maintenance. So while we can enter Breeders' Cup week at Santa Anita with the thought that speed is good on the main track, it will be incumbent on us horseplayers to watch what happens Thursday and early Friday to see if that remains the case.
Let's get the turf results right out of the way because they were unremarkable. There were 31 turf races run the last 10 racing days at Santa Anita, and 12 were won by speed (including four front running winners) for a success rate of 39%. There were also no special trends over the three full or partial weeks the 10 cards covered. This week, before Sunday, there were nine turf races at Santa Anita and three (33%) were won by speed. Last week, six of the 12 turf races there (50%) were won by speed, including three by front-runners. And in the three cards we looked at from two weeks ago, three of 10 turf races (30%) were won by speed, including one front-running winner.
Dirt is a different matter. There were 41 dirt sprints on the last 10 cards at Santa Anita, and 28 of them (68%) were won by what I define as speed, including seven front-running winners. Notably, speed improved from week to week. In the three cards looked at two weeks ago, speed won seven of 14 sprints (50%), including two front-running winners. In the full week last week, speed won 13 of 17 sprints (76%), including three front-running winners. And this week, before Sunday, speed won eight of 10 dirt sprints (80%), including two front-running winners.
Let's check out dirt routes. There were 16 such races the last 10 cards at Santa Anita, and 10 of them (63%) were won by speed, including four front-running winners. The week by week breakdown is as follows: In the three cards looked at two weeks ago, three of five dirt routes (60%) were won by speed, including one front-running winner. In the full week last week, two of five dirt routes (40%) were won by speed. This week, prior to Sunday, five of six dirt routes were won by speed (83%), including three front-running winners.
My view on this data is, the relatively low percentage of front-running speed winners to overall speed winners suggests that there is not a developing, or existing, speed bias on the main track at Santa Anita that is so dominating as to render secondary all other handicapping considerations. That said, it is undeniable that there is a trend over this given period where it has become increasingly preferable to be very close, if not right on the early pace on dirt at Santa Anita.
However, it is also critical to keep in mind that track biases can be fickle, and can often disappear as quickly as they surface due to weather (which is not a factor right now in Southern California), or adjustments in track maintenance. So while we can enter Breeders' Cup week at Santa Anita with the thought that speed is good on the main track, it will be incumbent on us horseplayers to watch what happens Thursday and early Friday to see if that remains the case.
