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Post by orioleboy on May 5, 2018 11:18:59 GMT -5
Just missed with Wonder Gadot in the Oaks. Hopefully today is better.
GOOD MAGIC - really like the champ in this spot. Was good enough last year to win the BC Juvy as a maiden, earning a 100 Beyer. All I'm hearing is that he hasn't looked as good as a 3 year old. Well anyone who does their homework should know that he had some foot issues early on in the year, and Chad Brown wasn't even sure if he would make the Derby. He was a short horse in the FOY and then got going in the Bluegrass. He has trained very smartly and is sitting on a big race. Brown can train on the dirt as well as the turf and this might be the best horse he has trained since Normandy Invasion (wink wink!). Go to the windows if you can get 8-1 or better.
JUSTIFY - I normally wouldn't pick a horse like this to hit the board, but he might be this good. Has a lot of history to buck. Big Brown is the only horse to win the Derby with only 3 starts, he's battling the Apollo curse and the Storm Cat sire line is 0-51 in the Derby!! With that said, Baffert might have another American Pharoah in his barn. I think he's right there, but might hit the wall at the 1/16th pole. Certainly no value as the favorite.
HOFBURG - another very lightly raced horse, I'm a sucker for Bill Mott. He wouldn't be putting him in here if he wasn't sure he belongs. Sired by champion sire Tapit, he is training very smartly and from what I'm reading has looked great on the track. At 20-1, I think he can hit the board and spice up the triple.
The next tier, which I'll be using to fill out my tri's include Audible, Bolt D'Oro, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn and Flameaway.
Good Luck Steve
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Post by orioleboy on May 9, 2018 10:27:01 GMT -5
Well, I nailed the exacta, although not in the right order. I loved Good Magic but realized that If Justify was another American Pharoah as I suspected, he would be tough to beat
What Justify did was extraordinary! With only 3 races under his belt and the Apollo curse on his back, all he did was run a half in 45 and change in the slop, and win under cruise control.
Baffert knew what he had but wasn’t letting on. Otherwise he would have been even shorter than 3-1.
Looks like 1-2 in the Preakness and a Triple Crown on the horizon.
Steve
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Post by John Fleming Jr on May 11, 2018 1:14:47 GMT -5
Just saw your post I do agree with your assessment of the preaknessthat justify will once again beat good magic. So unless there is a real bomber that clunks up for 3rd Preakness is almost non wagerable. Then on to the Belmont, where in my opinion the triple crown dies again. Justify will have run 5 races this year. My opinion is a pletcher fresh horse will run him down, or Hofburg who Mott has not run on the Preakness gets to stretch his legs over the mile and half and he gets to the wire before Justify.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2018 11:46:46 GMT -5
the pp's are free for the preakness at hrn...( horse racing nation ) now for those interested...
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Post by mysaladdays on May 13, 2018 11:37:37 GMT -5
I only wager the preakness if there is an oxbow or jackson bend type. Belmont is my favorite TC race, because there are so few real classic gallopers on the U.S. tracks today and I love finding the one who is just going to zone out and gallop along, like my grandparents who always took a long Sunday drive in their old Buick, oblivous to what everyone else is doing and keeps going when the others have almost stopped. LOL
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 14, 2018 7:39:16 GMT -5
I'll take a somewhat contrary view and state that on the whole the Preakness produces the truest results of the 3 TC races. You have a manageable field which reduces the chances of the best horse horse having it's chances severely compromised by traffic/bad racing luck. The Belmont is run on a somewhat quirky strip (Big Sandy) at a dirt distance that is rarely contested. We've had some truly bizarre winners of it.
The best Derby winners tend to win back in the Preakness, and many other of the best 3 year olds that did not win the Derby win the Preakness: Little Current, Risen Star, Hansel, Point Given, Curlin, Afleet Aex.
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 17, 2018 16:52:51 GMT -5
Agree with Shoes that the Preakness winner is typically the best 3YO of the crop and it is the Belmont that produces the craziest results i.e Sarava, Da Tara, Commendable, Jazil......
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Post by mysaladdays on May 18, 2018 17:42:34 GMT -5
Agree with Shoes that the Preakness winner is typically the best 3YO of the crop and it is the Belmont that produces the craziest results i.e Sarava, Da Tara, Commendable, Jazil...... All it shows is how few horses are patiently trained to have the bottom to run that distance here because it takes time to condition horses to that distance...they also have to have the pedigree to do it, and breeders aren't interested in stamina-bred TBs here. To me the results aren't *weird" so much as people trying to play The Belmont as if it were any other race, so it looks like weird longshots are coming in. What is coming in is a horse who has the stamina to carry their speed for 1-1/2 miles on a sandy tiring track. And, it is usually a very accurate result, IMHO. |
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 18, 2018 17:57:40 GMT -5
Agree with Shoes that the Preakness winner is typically the best 3YO of the crop and it is the Belmont that produces the craziest results i.e Sarava, Da Tara, Commendable, Jazil...... All it shows is how few horses are patiently trained to have the bottom to run that distance here because it takes time to condition horses to that distance...they also have to have the pedigree to do it, and breeders aren't interested in stamina-bred TBs here. To me the results aren't *weird" so much as people trying to play The Belmont as if it were any other race, so it looks like weird longshots are coming in. What is coming in is a horse who has the stamina to carry their speed for 1-1/2 miles on a sandy tiring track. And, it is usually a very accurate result, IMHO. Commendable? My recollection was that he had a dosage of 8 or something like that. Maybe it was revised afterwards. |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 27, 2018 18:29:38 GMT -5
"Commendable? My recollection was that he had a dosage of 8 or something like that. Maybe it was revised afterwards."No offense to anyone, but anyone who calls themselves a pedigree handicapper, and only uses dosage, is not doing their homework anyway.  One's who do that are no different from tourists betting "highest beyer speed number" on their programs.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 27, 2018 18:40:23 GMT -5
"Commendable? My recollection was that he had a dosage of 8 or something like that. Maybe it was revised afterwards."No offense to anyone, but anyone who calls themselves a pedigree handicapper, and only uses dosage, is not doing their homework anyway. One's who do that are no different from tourists betting "highest beyer speed number" on their programs. I did cherry pick one example, but I don't think many North American horses have been bred to get 12 f on the dirt in the last 50 years. I used the dosage on Commendable somewhat lazily as a shorthand to suggest that I didn't think he had superior distance breeding. My feeling in the Belmont is that if a horse can maintain a pace at reasonable, but comfortable fractions, that is the best recipe for a win. For years I have listened to people suggest closers who couldn't quite get there in the Derby and/or Preakness would benefit from the added distance, but it rarely plays out that way. And all though I love to look at pedigrees, I do not consider myself a "pedigree handicapper", it is just one factor for me and not at the expense of actual form. |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 29, 2018 0:10:13 GMT -5
Shoes, 100% agree with everything you said. "For years I have listened to people suggest closers who couldn't quite get there in the Derby and/or Preakness would benefit from the added distance, but it rarely playsaout that way.
And all though I love to look at pedigrees, I do not consider myself a "pedigree handicapper", it is just one factor for me and not at the expense of actual form."
Performance always trumps pedigree.
and yes, added distance won't help a horse who can't maintain connection to the field; it does take a certain amount of quality speed to win this thing, speed that can be carried over a distance.
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