1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 16, 2019 16:30:07 GMT -5
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 17, 2019 11:21:30 GMT -5
I have a lot of replays to go through, but I'll respond with what I see later. Elfitz was strong on strong on strong in his win. He had to avoid interference in the final half mile by a runner that lost it's rider earlier.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 19, 2019 10:13:29 GMT -5
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 19, 2019 11:49:20 GMT -5
As always, this is a really tough card and hitting winners will pay handsomely and there will be value galore. Giving it a shot. Course is firm today, but I'm surprised it's not good from all the rain we had here in NJ this week. Last year, it was pretty gooey. Thinking the US runners might improve with the firmer ground.
1 - The 2 imports are clear contenders, Global Freedom and Must See The Doc. Doc has a funny way of jumping and always goes left before he jumps. He didn't like being covered up 2 back and didn't have any fight when the winner blew by him. I loved what I saw from Elfitz. He was a beast. I get the feeling the Fisher barn liked Fast Car better, since their top rider Michael Mitchell was on board. He laid back and finished okay, but nobody was getting to Elfitz. The last time I saw a Fisher horse run this well breaking a maiden was at Monmouth this year when Snap Decision ran the same race, and he is a beast. I'm sure the value will be there on Elfitz and I'll have to play him while trying to cover the others.
2 - Wide open. Looks like a first time US runnner or Caldwell, who dominated the 3yo race here last year. Galway Kid ran in 2 point to points in Ireland, falling in his debut before winning by 15. These don't show up in Equibase, so I'm hoping that lack of info leads to a better price going first time Sheppard. I think Cracker Factory can outrun his odds here as well. No Snap Decision in here this time.
3 - The Peapack returns after not filling last year. Pravalaguna looks like a beast. Will play her with Bercasa, little Sarah Joyce and Keri Brion's Inverness. Liked what I saw at Foxfield from Inverness last time and she can hit the board here.
4 - Snap Decision. He's a beast. I'll look for value in the exacta but he will be heavily on top.
5 - New Jersey Hunt Cup. Used to be 3+ miles over Timber, but the timber fences are gone and this race is on the flat. Surprise Twist, Douglas Road and Lunaire look most interesting. Would throw in the import Fearsome and longshot Aldous Snow in the mix.
6 - Grand National. $450,000, Grade 1. I've never seen a field this good in the US. Wicklow Brave looks like the horse to beat. He's one amazing thoroughbred. Surprising Soul ran huge last out, Jury Duty won this last year in the goo, Brain Power is reportedly working well and would be a massive factor if he runs. The other US based horses are all good on their best day, Scorpiancer, Iranistan, Moscato. I'll certainly have a Wicklow-Surprising-Brain box and will look for other value.
7 - 130 and below handicap. Wow. Just widest of wide open. Peppay, Amschel, Kremlin, Stooshie, Pik Em (sharp at the right time), Former Grand National winner All The Way Jose and My Afleet. What a race. No real opinion outside of Pik Em at a good price, but I'll look for value.
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Post by DoctorDisaster on Oct 19, 2019 12:14:39 GMT -5
As always, this is a really tough card and hitting winners will pay handsomely and there will be value galore. Giving it a shot. Course is firm today, but I'm surprised it's not good from all the rain we had here in NJ this week. Last year, it was pretty gooey. Thinking the US runners might improve with the firmer ground. 1 - The 2 imports are clear contenders, Global Freedom and Must See The Doc. Doc has a funny way of jumping and always goes left before he jumps. He didn't like being covered up 2 back and didn't have any fight when the winner blew by him. I loved what I saw from Elfitz. He was a beast. I get the feeling the Fisher barn liked Fast Car better, since their top rider Michael Mitchell was on board. He laid back and finished okay, but nobody was getting to Elfitz. The last time I saw a Fisher horse run this well breaking a maiden was at Monmouth this year when Snap Decision ran the same race, and he is a beast. I'm sure the value will be there on Elfitz and I'll have to play him while trying to cover the others. 2 - Wide open. Looks like a first time US runnner or Caldwell, who dominated the 3yo race here last year. Galway Kid ran in 2 point to points in Ireland, falling in his debut before winning by 15. These don't show up in Equibase, so I'm hoping that lack of info leads to a better price going first time Sheppard. I think Cracker Factory can outrun his odds here as well. No Snap Decision in here this time. 3 - The Peapack returns after not filling last year. Pravalaguna looks like a beast. Will play her with Bercasa, little Sarah Joyce and Keri Brion's Inverness. Liked what I saw at Foxfield from Inverness last time and she can hit the board here. 4 - Snap Decision. He's a beast. I'll look for value in the exacta but he will be heavily on top. 5 - New Jersey Hunt Cup. Used to be 3+ miles over Timber, but the timber fences are gone and this race is on the flat. Surprise Twist, Douglas Road and Lunaire look most interesting. Would throw in the import Fearsome and longshot Aldous Snow in the mix. 6 - Grand National. $450,000, Grade 1. I've never seen a field this good in the US. Wicklow Brave looks like the horse to beat. He's one amazing thoroughbred. Surprising Soul ran huge last out, Jury Duty won this last year in the goo, Brain Power is reportedly working well and would be a massive factor if he runs. The other US based horses are all good on their best day, Scorpiancer, Iranistan, Moscato. I'll certainly have a Wicklow-Surprising-Brain box and will look for other value. 7 - 130 and below handicap. Wow. Just widest of wide open. Peppay, Amschel, Kremlin, Stooshie, Pik Em (sharp at the right time), Former Grand National winner All The Way Jose and My Afleet. What a race. No real opinion outside of Pik Em at a good price, but I'll look for value. You should see me dancing  Good luck Pete |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 19, 2019 13:37:22 GMT -5
Dermot Weld has one in the 4th. FTL.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 19, 2019 14:24:31 GMT -5
Jim, Days Without End ran his eyeballs out for Weld, but Snap Decision is one really special horse. $32 exacta was more than fair. So was $6.00 on the winner, who would have been an overlay at even money. :-D
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 19, 2019 14:27:54 GMT -5
No complaints with that effort or price!
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 19, 2019 14:34:02 GMT -5
Clancy brothers like Douglas Road in R5.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 19, 2019 14:53:41 GMT -5
The Storyteller FTL in the feature,big price. Using with Pro's top 3.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 19, 2019 16:11:18 GMT -5
Pik Em! Completes one heck of a day. 10 across at 24-1 and a dollar on the exacta. Until next year Far Hills... :-D
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 19, 2019 21:42:01 GMT -5
RIP Wicklow Brave , tragic ending to the American Grand National. Hugely popular horse for Willie Mullins in Britain and Ireland.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 19, 2019 23:49:22 GMT -5
Wicklow Brave....I'm crushed reading about his demise today. Had no idea watching the feed that he was injured on that fall. He looked in between strides nearing the fence and just dove at the jump from too far away. Group 1 winner on the flat and a Grade 1 winner over the hurdles is so rare. Raced all over the world and clearly just loved to run. 17 for 58 before today with over $1.3 million in earnings for the 10 year old. He had put Brain Power away running up the stretch hill and was that one fence away from a very happy story and another chapter in his amazing career. Just one jump....RIP champ.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 19, 2019 23:52:59 GMT -5
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 20, 2019 7:20:40 GMT -5
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 20, 2019 11:20:38 GMT -5
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