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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 2, 2019 14:54:05 GMT -5
Two Group I races and three Group IIs. Free PPs if you have an Xpressbet.com account, they offer sign-up bonuses, and have live video which is hard to find otherwise.
TW
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 2, 2019 15:30:13 GMT -5
Softer the better for Technician in the first.
Hooper
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 3, 2019 16:25:42 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 4, 2019 15:44:22 GMT -5
12:30- Prix Dollar (Group 2) (3yo+) 1m1f165y #4-Line of Duty (4-6) has opted for this race and he'll be a solid favorite, but I suspect he's a better miler on balance. No wins in four tries this season against much better foes. Handled yielding going when winning BC Juv Turf at CD last fall. Class relief here should be significant, but he's far from a lock to me. #6- Leo De Fury (6-1) was a close second to Buckhurst in a GIII at today's distance over yielding ground two races back. Last time the longer trip got to him, perhaps he can't quite do the 12F distance. This is not the strongest renewal of this GII feature, should have a say in the outcome. #1- Mountain Angel (7-1) has really improved as a 5yo, close second to Olmedo in GIII at Deauville last time. Handles all ground, likes the distance, deserves this shot at a Group win. #3- Villa Rosa (11-1) should be the pacestter, improving 4yo filly has some class to her, handles off going. Might hang around longer than they'd like.
$5WIN- 1 $1SaverTRI- 4/1,3,6/All
1:35- Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Group 2) (3yo+) 1m#1- The Revanant (5-1) is a winning machine, 7-for-9 lifetime, has taken a GIII and a GII this season. Off since the end of May, this is a tough spot for a comeback but he fits on class at least. #2- Olmedo (2-1) is in career form, only beaten 1.5l against Circus Maximus and Romanised in GI over C&D in last. Mile over soft ground suits him perfectly. #3- Impulsif (2-1) has come to hand in his last three outings, making all the pace in his GIII win at Deauville. Off since that July effort, still needs to find a bit more but can't discount another front end attempt. #4- Shaman (4-1) has raced in four consecutive GIs, will appreciate the step down today. Two back split Romanised and Line of Duty at Deauville, then had a spot of trouble when sixth behind those two and Olmedo over this C&D. Taken to upset the field of five.
$5WIN- 4
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 5, 2019 6:27:23 GMT -5
3:25- Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) 1m6f
#1- Enbihaar (2-1) has four wins in five starts as a 4yo, including three straight GIIs, all on Good-to-firm going. #7- Anapurna (5-1) was the Epsom Oaks (GI) winner in May, unsighted again until a less than stellar comeback over the course in mid-September. Stretches out to 14F, handles soft turf, gets Dettori back. Needs to find more but not out of this. #4- Lah Ti Dar (5-1) hasn't reproduced her 3yo form this year, but has only run against the best competition this season. GII winner was thumped by Enable and Magical last time at York, stretches out to 1m6f today over which distance she was 2nd in last year's St. Leger. Soft going will not bother. Frankie went to a stablemate, but Buick is happy and hungry to be back in the saddle. Don't discount the class. Lightly-raced #5- Mutamakina (10-1) ran a fine second to Arc-runner Sottsass last time, stretches out in distance today. This is a big ask, but a repeat of last puts her in range.
Edit: Ground is listed as very soft. Horses making premature moves have faltered late for the most part. Going to bet against the favorite Enbihaar who is unproven on off going.
$3QUIBX- 4,5,7 $1SaverQUI- 5,7/3
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 5, 2019 7:14:36 GMT -5
4:00- Prix Chaudenay (Group 2) (3yo) 1m7f
#3- Dashing Willoughby (7-2) ran below par last out in the St. Leger, should prefer the going today. Queen's Vase (GII) win over soft ground at Royal Ascot sticks in my mind. #4- Nayef Road (7-2) ran 3rd in the St. Leger at 40-1, he's hard to figure. Soft ground also a question mark. #7- Technician (13-2) was a dull sixth in the St. Leger, previous try was a nice GIII win over soft going. Can contend on his best, needs to show it for the win. #1- Moonlight Spirit (7-2) is a lightly raced Godolphin colt. Facile GII win beating four overmatched rivals over C&D a month ago, do not discount.
Edit: Keying Technician here.
$2QUI- 7/1,3,4 $1SaverQUIBX- 1,3,4
4:35- Prix du Cadran (Group 1) (4yo+) 2m4f
#1- Dee Ex Bee (5-4) finally gets away from nemesis Stradivarius, would be unfortunate for him to falter on this run. Skipped Doncaster Cup to be fresh for this. Clean trip should get him home. #3- Way To Paris (6-1) is an unknown at the distance, ran a good second to Arc-runner Waldgeist last time, has shown improved form since stretched out to St. Leger-type distances. #4- Holdthasigreen (12-1) is usually there or thereabouts at the finish, distance no concern but Way To Paris has handled him twice this term. #8- Call The Wind (4-1) won this GI last year for trainer Freddie Head, form has been spotty this season but a threat on best. #6- Cleonte (12-1) finished a good second to Stradivarius in the Doncaster Cup, distance suits but ground is a concern.
$5QUI- 1/3,4,8
TW
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 5, 2019 7:29:48 GMT -5
Like Shaman also at 7/2. Trying Technician in R7 at 8-1.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 5, 2019 7:41:50 GMT -5
Quite a turn of foot by Revenant.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 5, 2019 10:10:41 GMT -5
Bam!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 5, 2019 10:36:06 GMT -5
That was a good late run Hoop! Travelled like most of the winners today, covered up, and made the last move the winning one. Clearly handled the ground better than anyone else.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 5, 2019 12:25:04 GMT -5
12:30- Prix Dollar (Group 2) $5WIN- 1 $1SaverTRI- 4/1,3,6/All results: 2,1,4 Line of Duty failed to fire as the odds-on favorite. Mountain Angel was an overlay at 7-1, but got beat near the finish by French win machine Skalleti.
1:35- Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Group 2) $5WIN- 4 results: 1,2,4 Shaman ran well to be third, but The Revanant was much the best mowing them all down through the stretch.
3:25- Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) $3QUIBX- 4,5,7 $1SaverQUI- 5,7/3 results: 7,8,1 Anapurna led flagfall to finish under a smart ride by Dettori, but Delphinia surprised for second to spoil the party.
4:00- Prix Chaudenay (Group 2) $2QUI- 7/1,3,4 $1SaverQUIBX- 1,3,4 results: 7,1,2 Qui = $13.80 Technician was clearly best over ground he relished. Surprised that Moonlight Spirit was bet down to 8-5 favoritism, which also killed the quinella price under the 7-1 winner.
4:35- Prix du Cadran (Group 1) $5QUI- 1/3,4,8 results: 4,8,1 Poor Dee Ex Bee finally ducks Stradivarius and then gets very soft going that undid him late. I should have stuck with my original 4-horse QuiBox which returned $74.00 for $5.
Bet in- $66 returned- $13.80 Arc day on tap for Sunday, with six Group I races from 5F to 12F. Look for horses proven over the distance being contested, or even turning back, with ability on soft-heavy ground a must. Au revoir.
TW
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