|
|
Post by nolazag on May 3, 2018 19:11:28 GMT -5
|
|
lance
UpInClass Member
Posts: 5
|
Post by lance on May 3, 2018 20:42:36 GMT -5
Happy Derby week, all. It's been so long since I've posted here that I my old user name/password didn't even work, so I had to create a new account. Anyway...
On the subject of Mendelssohn, I stumbled across a video in which a guy investigates how big the track bias was at Meydan this spring, in light of Mendolssohn’s massive victory.
I’ve never seen anything quite like it. 16 out of 17 dirt races were won by horses who went wire to wire on the rail.
And as nolazag points out, he looked washy on the track this morning. I think he's a play-against at a short price.
For me, the real value in this race is Good Magic, who's listed as 12/1 on the morning line. I'm expecting around 8/1 or 9/1. This is the third race of his form cycle, he's getting over the Churchill surface beautifully, and he's shown the ability to race in and among horse and take dirt in his face.
Yes, Justify looks like a beast, but taking 5/2 to buck 130+ years of history seems like a bad bet to me. A lot of good horses, including two-time horse of the year Curlin, have tried and failed.
Good luck to all!
|
|
gam
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,007
|
Post by gam on May 4, 2018 23:22:07 GMT -5
I guess that makes Mind Your Biscuits win all the more impressive.
|
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on May 5, 2018 3:20:10 GMT -5
He wasn't washy. When horses take very long transatlantic flights, they overhydrate them to combat arid environment in pressurized cabin. If you've even flown more than 6 hours, you know what I mean. the next day, after you have drunk pedialite and water constantly while in the plane, you sweat it out. And pee a lot. There is a huge difference between being "washy" and a horse who is "sweating". Physicality handicappers can tell you this. My subscription clocker report says he looked fantastic I capped the race for a dry track. If it is sealed slop, I will probably pass the race. so I thought mendy was a good bet, or Bolt d'Oro. Can't take the odds on Justify as a key. If it comes up slop, then it presents an entirely different picture than how I capped on dry. Curlins can also win on slop, but the horses who have won races over wet/sealed (or can run on it like combatant) are enticed, lone sailor, my boy jack,, firenze fire, flameway and justify. As for the video, this was a leg stretcher. He wasn't SUPPOSED to "do anything". Horse has been on a Very Long transatlantic flight, as well as cooped up in quarantine. NOt sure what you were expecting? Cuz Otherwise, I honestly don't know how anyone can look at him and not see his conformation, etc. for 1-1/4 classic distance....the horse looks fabulous by any account. Unless it's just the usual sports talk by those who don't like euro invaders, etc. and root for their own here and that is understandable. |
|
lance
UpInClass Member
Posts: 5
|
Post by lance on May 7, 2018 12:35:54 GMT -5
"He wasn't washy. "
I've been watching horses for 30+ years, and he looked "washy" to me. Maybe everyone has a different definition of that word, but I don't like seeing white, foamy sweat on a horse during light training -- like you said, "this was a leg stretcher" -- regardless of where the horse is coming from. I didn't like seeing foamy sweat on Bolt d'Oro in the morning either. Leading up to the Derby, I want to see a comfortable, happy horse who's shining light a bright penny in the morning. Bolt looked to me like a horse who was over the top -- something I first suspected after his fast-early-slow-late workout at Santa Anita following the SA Derby -- and he ran like it on race day. Both are talented horses and would probably do well with some time off. Just my take.
|
|
|
|
Post by DoctorDisaster on May 7, 2018 14:53:02 GMT -5
I agree Lance.Not only was he washy his general behavior was not what I like to see.Bolt was foaming from the neck before his jog I watched.That gave enough confidence to bet against his chances.Justify on the other hand was near perfect.When he had his gate school and jog that just about sealed it for me.
|
|
ozzy
UpInClass Member
Posts: 957
|
Post by ozzy on May 8, 2018 15:35:25 GMT -5
I had it up to post but deleted it. I wasn’t impressed at all,with what I saw from Bolt d’ Oro on Wed or Thursday. I thought he bobbled at times which is usually indicative of a horse not liking the track and I thought he was stiff behind (as did other more knowledgeable observers with me). He looked much better going Friday and having never laid eyes on him prior to, I elected not to say anything. I tossed him from everything but that had much more to do with 2 tough outs after an interrupted spring and a less than ideal work 2 back.
As for Mendy, he looked the way a $3 million colt should to me. I was taken by his appearance when seeing on Thursday morning. He was quite vocal which I really didn’t care for but he was the same way in the paddock so I guess that is just him. He didnt wash out per se but he did sweat quite a bit on Thursday, a fact I can easily forgive as it was quite warm and humid Thursday at CD. This was also his first time out after the trip and 48 hours of quarantine so didn’t bother me that much honestly.
Speaking of appearances, I would have booked every single ticket I could get my hands on betting Vino Rossi after seeing him 20 minutes to post in the paddock. This horse simply lost it. He planted, refused to walk, and was shaking. The “savagery” got to this guy and I think it serves as an important reminder to watch how horses handle the scene before hitting the windows if possible. Would be very curious as to what Kerry Thomas thought of this guy as he certainly didn’t handle it mentally on Saturday.
|
|
|
|
Post by DoctorDisaster on May 8, 2018 16:30:16 GMT -5
I sort of thought the same way Oz about the warmer more humid weather and Mends looks.I was willing to give him a pass but Deauville looked fine(best of the lot)  .Then again he scratched out of what I thought was a nice placing.I still haven't heard what that was all about. |
|
|
|
Post by mysaladdays on May 9, 2018 3:09:47 GMT -5
. Would be very curious as to what Kerry Thomas thought of this guy as he certainly didn’t handle it mentally on Saturday. "While we like his classic distance profile, we think there is a good chance some of his old habits could re-emerge in the chaos of the 20-horse Derby field. Vino Rosso is a Group Herd Dynamic horse with a slightly slow filtration process. This is not a horse with a lighting fast sensory system who can easily hit tight, rapid-fire gaps. Vino Rosso took a step forward in the Wood Memorial and could be on a growth pattern. His classic distance profile looks fine, but we do not rank him with the elite herd dynamics in this field at this time." OTOH, thomas said he didn't strike him as a nervous type.......and as it turns out, he sure was, huh? Basically he thought vino isn't really very spatially aware, doesn't know where other horses are, etc. Of course, thomas HATES blinkers, thinks it really hamstrings most horses in terms of any sensory perceptions. I have to say I pretty much agree with this to some extent.......all my favorite horses of all time never wore them. Poor guy, he was shaking? Then they go out an run for us. You gotta have a lotta respect for these creatures. Must have been a very difficult hour or so for this horse, mentally and emotionally. |
|
.Then again he scratched out of what I thought was a nice placing.I still haven't heard what that was all about.