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Post by bobtailnag on May 3, 2018 13:31:06 GMT -5
Is there a reason I have not seen a word about Kerry Thomas and the Derby this year?
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Post by orioleboy on May 3, 2018 14:09:13 GMT -5
I posted on him a few days ago. I got his report for $25.
Steve
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Post by Chalkie on May 3, 2018 14:19:22 GMT -5
So who does he like in this years KYD? Seems as if when he first started posting his selections, they were decent odds.
Now the past 2-3 years he's picked all chalks.
Any nice value in his picks?
Chalkie
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Post by bobtailnag on May 3, 2018 18:11:40 GMT -5
In the beginning no one knew anything about him, hence most were mainly just curious about this concept called "herd dynamics". Since we have learned his methodology is extremely effective in selecting derby winners and any horse that he opines to be one of any of his top choices to win, either they're tapped as a ML favorite by the Trackman and were obvious favorites that all of us would have agreed with, or they get bet down to favorite status by the public.
He does not "pick" favorites in the sense that he handicaps the horses as you and I do. In a sense he identifies the horses in that group that are the strongest, fastest, most dominant in the field - kind of like identifying the Alpha horse much like the many animal groups like wolves, lions and gorillas groups submit to the alpha male on those groups
The above we be on the final exam and it will be an essay question!
How long as the cost been up to $25.00? Last time I bought his write-up it was $20.00. I would think he's probably listed as many as 4 or 5 to possibilities
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gam
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Post by gam on May 3, 2018 20:06:37 GMT -5
Some of what Kerry talks about was subsumed in class handicapping. A question of whether a horse who has defeated lesser can duplicate the effort when stepping up in class. It's not always a question of raw ability. Certainly a behavioral component has been recognized for some time. For years I've sworn that a lot of "seconditis" horses simply refused to win. Then there are the habitual hangers who inexplicably seem to wait on other horses once they've either gotten a lead or are about to.
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Post by Chalkie on May 3, 2018 21:49:23 GMT -5
I read somewhere on twitter that they are hot on Magnum Moon. Says he's best athlete in the race. I cannot justify paying $25 for his analysis. I like to wait until it's free to read it  Me personally I like Solomini.... I think he's sitting on a monster race, still haven't seen what he's capable of. Plus he's Bafferts "other" horse. Thoughts? |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 5, 2018 3:53:25 GMT -5
Some of what Kerry talks about was subsumed in class handicapping. A question of whether a horse who has defeated lesser can duplicate the effort when stepping up in class. It's not always a question of raw ability. Certainly a behavioral component has been recognized for some time. For years I've sworn that a lot of "seconditis" horses simply refused to win. Then there are the habitual hangers who inexplicably seem to wait on other horses once they've either gotten a lead or are about to. The behavioral component is always interesting. I was listening to a story about zenyatta in the barn with other mares, they all just naturally "deferred" to her. I had an alpha canine like that, our 4 other dogs just pretty much obeyed her, and she was very mellow, but they "just knew" . I think Kerry Thomas was the missing component in handicapping, because he presents them as creatures with emotions, and herd behavior, sort of like Barbara Livingston does w/her photos.....all individuals.......I love the "bath time" photos and videos. They are more than figures and numbers, and sometimes, we are humbled by those that show us grit and courage even when the numbers don't tell us everything. Kerry HATES blinkers. That is always standard in all his writeups. Feels it deprives them of sensory perceptions. I do agree iwth that. |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 5, 2018 4:00:22 GMT -5
Me personally I like Solomini.... I think he's sitting on a monster race, still haven't seen what he's capable of. Plus he's Bafferts "other" horse. Thoughts? He is a real enigma, in so many ways. When I scored him he had a ton of negatives, then he had a ton of positives. dunno who will show up on Sat though. My "gut" is that he has some problems. OTOH, audible's shelly hoof walls and all that white stuff on his feet is somewhat concerning to me. If this makes you feel any better, the number of KY Derby winners starting w/letter "S" is the largest. |
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Post by bobtailnag on May 5, 2018 8:02:46 GMT -5
"Solomini is far more physically talented than he is mentally efficient. But there is absolutely no quit in this horse. It is impressive that
despite his mental shortcomings, he has never been out of the money in six career starts -- four of them at the Grade 1 level.
Solomini is a gritty competitor, and if the mental light bulb ever turns on, he is going to in stantly improve by lengths. But his
demonstrated sensory inefficiency and limited Group Herd Dynamic awareness is likely going to be trouble for him in a 20-horse
Kentucky Derby field. Because of how long it takes him to interpret stimulus, he is unlikely to work out an advantageous trip, and this
race more than any other exposes reactive, sensory-inefficient horses."
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 5, 2018 8:15:21 GMT -5
I think there is certainly some validity in what he does but I think his report has become less definitive and more ambiguous in recent years as maybe he is afraid he will anger some potential clients. Always enjoy reading after the fact though as his insight is interesting.
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Post by mysaladdays on May 5, 2018 9:37:57 GMT -5
I think there is certainly some validity in what he does but I think his report has become less definitive and more ambiguous in recent years as maybe he is afraid he will anger some potential clients. Always enjoy reading after the fact though as his insight is interesting. yeah, I noticed that after he disses a horse he will say something nice about him LOL But the sensory issues are really important. I don't think most people gave Mine That Bird the credit he deserved when he let Borel shoot him thru that tiny hole on the rail....a horse REALLY has to have a very keen ability to "process information" , sort of like the reflexes you need to have when a deer runs out ino front of your vehicle, split second processing ability. So many horses don't have that. |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 5, 2018 9:39:29 GMT -5
"Solomini is far more physically talented than he is mentally efficient. But there is absolutely no quit in this horse. It is impressive that despite his mental shortcomings, he has never been out of the money in six career starts -- four of them at the Grade 1 level. Solomini is a gritty competitor, and if the mental light bulb ever turns on, he is going to in stantly improve by lengths. But his demonstrated sensory inefficiency and limited Group Herd Dynamic awareness is likely going to be trouble for him in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field. Because of how long it takes him to interpret stimulus, he is unlikely to work out an advantageous trip, and this race more than any other exposes reactive, sensory-inefficient horses." In other words, physically gifted, but "head case". I'd bet him in the Belmont though! OTOH, if anything happens in the race, this one will still be running I think. |
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Post by cherokeescot on May 6, 2018 20:46:02 GMT -5
I see that he and 10 million others had Justify on top. Next year let’s just have one Derby thread titled “Bet the favorite”
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Post by mysaladdays on May 9, 2018 3:52:05 GMT -5
I see that he and 10 million others had Justify on top. Next year let’s just have one Derby thread titled “Bet the favorite” If you are only looking at thomas's report in terms of picks, then there isn't much sense in having it. I wrote you a long post about this but windows decided to do an update then shut my computer down, so I can't recreate.  suffice to say that Justify has some very unique qualities, along with his actual physical abilities.......as do some of the other horses..... that tell you about stuff that is invaluable, and also allows you to identify similar qualities in horses in the future. Whether or not those qualities win a chaos race like the KY derby is never certain, but you have insight into stuff that most people don't think about. If I had to summarize justify's psychology I guess I would call it "like water off a duck's back". He is not busy getting hung up on stuff, and is able to experience things then move forward regardless. |
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Post by Ervinnic on Jan 13, 2019 20:13:01 GMT -5
deleted
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Post by Sigmund Freud on Jan 13, 2019 21:29:35 GMT -5
Ranked in Herd Dynamic order for 1 1⁄4 miles on May 5, 2018
1. Justify
2. Audible
3. Magnum Moon
4. Bolt D’Oro
5. Hofburg
6. Good Magic
7. Noble Indy
8. Mendelssohn
9. Vino Rosso
10. Solomini
11. Flameaway
12. Bravazo
13. Enticed
14. Instilled Regard
15. Free Drop Billy
16. My Boy Jack
17. Firenze Fire
18. Combatant
19. Lone Sailor
20. Blended Citizen (AE) 21. Promises Fulfilled
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2019 10:04:47 GMT -5
The Pegausas should be a dandy....January 26 th or is it 25 th,....lets see if any of this years k d enter to see what they are made of.....lol...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2019 15:29:30 GMT -5
I see that he and 10 million others had Justify on top. Next year let’s just have one Derby thread titled “Bet the favorite” Just a comment....what I know is , a few horse trainers and owners look for is , for a " natural " as they say...it is a horse that Wants to run and does better than thier shape and condition in a race where the horse actually wants to stay with those picking up speed etc and moving with the picked up speed of horses in better condition and shape...and there are many horses that run a two or three seconds off the track records race after race and do so nigh every week but the owners etc do not have the funds to put them into stakes races or take the time to train them for a race or distance but race them into shape instead instead of breezing etc...but then, there are smart trainers and owners who pay the price of entry, to stakes races, at secondary tracks, where the top owners do not send thier horses and thus win in the money earned box...just got to place ones horses where they can do best...justify is one of those that runs because he wants to run...a real soldier indeed... Other champions also were naturals...they all liked running...lol... I remember many years ago getting on a mare that had run at woodbine etc at a horse ranch and had never beaten the ponies the guides sat on...well we got to a field and she ran and the ponies ran about six furlongs before they caught her and they were going all out and were used as training horses to run along side and prompt the trainee....lol..apperently she had never run that fast....lol..so a lot of it is chemistry between the rider and horse...makes s big difference,....oh, a few years later I found out she was abused by some sadists etc at the horse farm ,,,persons who had lost money on her...I did wonder where the mare got her scars from though....probably ended up as illegal horse meat or glue but she did have breeding so perhaps that is why they had her at the farm...oh, yeah, the owner did ask us that only some one who could ride was allowed to ride her...I said I could...lol...just another memory.... , |
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Post by cherokeescot on Jan 14, 2019 17:28:12 GMT -5
For the claiming contest I have been looking at several maiden claiming races and it is astounding how many “naturals” that were bought as yearlings or 2 year olds for $400k - $1m end up running in $16k-$30k maiden claiming races . Case in point Empress Sophia in the 5th race at Aqueduct Friday. Bought as as yearling for $400k and running for $30k.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2019 17:37:32 GMT -5
Agree ....it is a surprise....but having watched a few 60 minute t v etc programs investigating and type intakes, on the shady Sales industry and buying industry a no of years ago this does not surprise me....lol....w c fields is said to have stated " a sucker is born every minute " and so the warning " buyer be ware " lol.....so do teach the children in these pit falls as well....lol.etc etc. Lol ...ps go with winning trainer and owners in these races....lol..look at all the euros etc that are showing up here and their paid for breeding and them winning a lot of races here...I note that some races have three or four shippers in major purse races these days going up against high paid American hopefuls...lol...and then euros or South American horses winning or running times to make all the horse expend themselves like never before, lol...etc...lol...and as for horse conformation is concerned , many bought what they new to be simailar conformations as former champions or close to same and thought they had a possible champ....course the owners etc do write off a lot on taxs ...etc...lol...we called this " conformation " as " body " way back when....espec. if the horse liked to run and give its all....lol...just as in " nature of " ie: personnalities....lol...
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