LARRY'S PICKS for SARATOGA on September 1st!
Aug 31, 2019 14:24:21 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Aug 31, 2019 14:24:21 GMT -5
Welcome to the beautiful Saratoga Race Course, the oldest thoroughbred course in the country. After releasing a fairly solid Travers Day full card analysis that had 11 winners in the picks including 8 that were spotted 1st or 2nd, 6 exacta boxes including 1 that paid $165.00, and 2 trifecta boxes that paid $143.00 and $355.00, I’m ready for a final 2019 trip to the Spa for a “Friends & Family” party get together. I have analyzed the entire card in the following pages and hopefully the racing Gods will shine upon those who read this and wager on the Sunday, September 1st action, the penultimate racing day here at Saratoga! For those in attendance the hope is that win or lose, we all experience a very enjoyable day here at the Spa!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 13 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
1 FIRST RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SP. WEIGHT | Purse: $75,000
(1) BRICKYARD is a 2 year old altered son of TAKE CHARGE INDY making his debut for low profile connections who have been very patient with him. His A.M. preparation began way back in March and while there is a gap in works from April until June, he appears to have been routinely and purposefully worked since then. His July works over this surface suggests there may be some speed in the arsenal and I expect Luis Reyes to be aggressive early on and see how far he can go from his hedge draw! Scratched from a similar heat Friday when he drew a wide slot, he is a potential “Upset Special” courtesy of LARRY’S PICKS! (8) SUMMER SANGRIA draws the identical post that saw him lead a similar group into deep stretch last out before being collared in the shadow of the wire. He set brisk fractions in that heat and if able to clear again he may take no end of catching. He appears to strictly be the one to beat. (6) CHIMNEY ROCK turns back from a route to a sprint after showing good speed for half a mile before retreating badly. He needs to avoid a speed duel to show his best. (7) ALEX LOVE CANDY finished well after a troubled start over the slop first time out just 11 days ago. If a pace meltdown occurs he could be flying through the lane at a big price!
2 SECOND RACE
7 Furlongs | Fillies & Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $25,000 | Purse: $44,000
(2) ELEGANT ROSE ships from Monmouth while taking the biggest drop in the game after finishing 4th as the beaten favorite last out. Irad Ortiz knows her well as he rode her to 2nd and 3rd finishes in 2 starts at Gulfstream Park last Winter. She should show the best speed from the gate and she may forget to stop today! (1) WILL TAKE OVER debuts for Michelle Nevin who has quietly had a decent meet at the Spa. Several works hint at ability and she could go well for a share. (8) MAGICAL TIME goes turf to dirt and drops after showing very little in the debut. The daughter of CAIRO PRINCE could improve quickly with the surface switch.
3 THIRD RACE
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | CLAIMING : $25,000 | Purse: $45,000
(5) TALENT SCOUT was claimed and moves back up to the level where he closed well against the grain of the race 2 back. He was once much better than these and could recapture some glory beneath new pilot, Kendrick Carmouche. (7) ARI’S NAUGHTY LUCA drew widest in a race containing other speed types and the MINESHAFT 3 year old could inherit a “stalk and pounce” trip and might be the one to catch as they turn for home! (3) NORTHERN HAZE overcame a tardy start to power by cheap claimers in breaking the maiden last out earning a decent speed figure in the process. A repeat is distinctly within the realm of possibility.
4 FOURTH RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | Fillies & Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $92,000
(7) MY GALINA will have to contend with other speeds signed on but could go well beneath Jose Ortiz given the drop back to her proper level. (3) RESTRUCTURE ran to her huge Tomlinson distance number when put on the turf for the first time and she could repeat for a trainer who is enjoying a solid meet.
5 FIFTH RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $50,000 | Purse: $52,000
(8) BAYERN’S MIRAGE showed improved speed when adding the hood before faltering to 7th in the late stages of the race last out. 2 extremely impressive works since were likely earned wearing the blinks also and now Lasix will be added to the equation. He has a license to bounce back at a price with the switch to Irad Ortiz. (6) VAYA CON DIOS exits the same race as my top pick, an improved effort where he finished 3rd. He should also show good early speed and may be the one to catch and beat! (4) O’BUSHIDO debuts for solid connections and may prove best of the half dozen first time starters entered here.
6 SIXTH RACE
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | CLAIMING : $32,000 | Purse: $60,000
(4) CARRIER LANDING is a 3 year old gelding by TALE OF THE CAT who has greeted the lensman 4 times in his 9 lifetime starts. Shipping in from Kentucky, Manny Franco takes the call and he should have him running on best when they enter the stretch. (1) THE SICARLI has shown an affinity for the Saratoga main track with 2 of his 3 lifetime victories happening here. Coupled with (1A) MACCA TREE who drops while removing the hood, either one could garner a share given a perfect trip. (6) ALWAYS FORGIVEN ships from the West Coast for Rob Atras and drops from the Grade III Affirmed Stakes. He saw all of the heels in that affair including those of race winner MUCHO GUSTO who finished 3rd last weekend in the Travers as my top pick. While I expect him to attract some attention, he hasn’t really run all that fast out West and he may be overbet!
7 SEVENTH RACE
1 1/16 Miles (TURF) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SP. WEIGHT | Purse: $90,000
(3) BRIDAL PATH had an eventful trip in the debut, a race won by a subsequent repeater in a Stakes race, CRYSTALLE. Rosario stays put when he appears to have had options and I think this HARD SPUN 2 year old filly may improve quickly. (6) SPARKLING SKY took considerable tote action in the same debut race as my top pick and she ran well for 3rd before being elevated to 2nd via a DQ. If none of the first time starters are monsters she could be the one to beat! (8) MIRABELL MEI debuts for potent connections following a long series of works since May. The daughter of PALACE MALICE could go well at first asking. (7) PATERSON took money but showed nothing in the dirt debut at Belmont on July 3rd. She seems much more suited to the conditions today and Jeremiah Englehart will add the hood hoping to improve focus.
8 EIGHTH RACE
7 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $90,000
(2) ORSAY cost a mere $1.2 Million when taken out of the August 2018 sales and the daughter of Triple Crown winner AMERICAN PHAROAH could be in line to pay some immediate dividends. (8) ALANDRA debuts for Travers Stakes winning trainer, Shug McGaughey and she sports a solid work history dating back to May. The daughter of BLAME could prove to be precocious! (7) BUXOM BEAST was ambitiously placed in the Grade III Schuylerville for her debut and she was far from embarrassed over a muddy track she may not have adored. Rosario opts off to ride my 2nd choice but she could go well for Kendrick Carmouche. (11, 12, 13) represent “also eligible” runners who need a scratch from the main body of race in order to run. If any do get in, they deserve a look, especially underneath in exotics.
9 NINTH RACE
1 Mile (INNER TURF) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds | CLAIMING : $65,000 | Purse: $80,000
(3) CONNECTIVITY was claimed and moves “UpInClass” but the 3 year old MIDSHIPMAN filly could get a similar pace scenario that allowed her to unleash her powerful late run last out. She deserves respect beneath a jock who knows her well. (10) MUSIC OF LIFE nearly outran her odds with a wide late run sprinting last out at Laurel. The low profile trainer usually spots them where they belong and she could go well on the stretchout. (2) HERE COMES JACKIE cuts back slightly from a series of longer routes at the shore and she seems a must use, especially underneath!
10 TENTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Fillies & Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | STARTER ALLOWANCE | Purse: $60,000
(6) CARRIZO has a good tracking gear and should sit a decent trip just off the plethora of speed types signed on. She should be going best when the serious running begins. (9) UNTAKEN scratched yesterday to await this spot while making her 1st start of 2019. She ran well here routing off a brief layoff last Summer and she may finish well and pass some tiring runners to gain a share. Not one to exhibit a “killer instinct” with only 2 wins in 23 starts, she does often run 2nd. (5) CATHY NAZ is another recent scratch awaiting this start and the BLUEGRASS CAT 4 year old may also close with some authority for a share. (7) SMOKEN DEB makes her first start since March sporting a solid first gear but other speeds may compromise her chances of a higher finish.
11 ELEVENTH RACE
Spinaway Stakes | 7 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $350,000
(7) SHIPPY is drawn perfectly to allow jockey Luis Saez to gauge the race flow in the Grade I Spinaway Stakes. Never far off the pace, he should be able to make a well timed move on this MIDSHIPMAN filly and they can post the mild upset. (4) MISS PEPPINA adds lasix after finishing behind a couple of these in Grade II Adirondack. If a pace duel develops she could be going best in deep stretch. (2) FRANK’S ROCKETTE was the beaten favorite in the aforementioned Adirondack, unable to overcome a troubled trip. She could easily rebound and take all with a clean journey.
12 TWELTH RACE
1 1/16 Miles (INNER TURF) | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $80,000
(4) FOTIS nearly created a result so shocking as to only be rivaled by the daily results on “The Maury Show” when he attempted a larceny at 116-1 last out. Beaten only 1 ¾ lengths for all the money, he cuts back slightly and could make it interesting as he outdraws the other 2 speed types signed on. (2) GRADED ON A CURVE endured considerable trouble as he finished just behind FOTIS last out and these 2 could run together again! (5) OPT ran 2nd in the same heat and if a speed duel develops he could close late and take all. (11) SALTKING is a lightly raced ANIMAL KINGDOM colt who has more upside potential than most in here. Another closer, look for him late, if at all!
LL
