LARRY'S PICKS for SARATOGA on August 24th TRAVERS DAY!
Aug 22, 2019 7:47:49 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Aug 22, 2019 7:47:49 GMT -5
Welcome to the beautiful Saratoga Race Course, the oldest thoroughbred course in the country. Larry LaTour has analyzed the entire card for this 2019 Travers Day hoping to come up with some winning opportunities. A relatively wide open field of 12 will answer the starters’ call and in direct contrast to my very 1st Travers in 1982, not one of the 3 individual Triple Crown race winners will be in the gate Saturday. Back in 1982 all 3 individual race winners showed up and in a very short 5 horse field, none of them won! RUNAWAY GROOM shipped from Canada that year and won as the longest shot on the board! This will be my 38th consecutive Travers and the 150th time the Travers Stakes has been contested. While Travers Day is always special, at times it has also been very profitable for the readers of LARRY’S PICKS! Since “full card” analysis was first produced in 2010, a few IRS scores have been there for the taking including the $1,723.00 trifecta in the 2010 Ballston Spa Stakes and my largest published analysis return of $11,355.00 for a $2.00 superfecta box from the 3rd race on the 2011 Travers undercard. Fortunately, we produced another solid pay day last year in 2018 when yet another high priced Grade I winner joined my bio page when as predicted GLORIOUS EMPIRE at $33.40 wired the grassy Sword Dancer Stakes and shortly thereafter we saw LARRY’S PICKS Travers analysis yield the $298.00 exacta box as CATHOLIC BOY outran MENDLESSOHN to the wire in the Mid Summer Derby! Since I hold myself to high standards of excellence, I recognize that I am only as good as my NEXT winner so let’s get into the 2019 Travers card. The 150th Travers Stakes is slated as race 11 on a 13 race card and win or lose, I hope everyone has an enjoyable Travers day here at the Spa!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 13 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from the analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when the top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire worldwide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
1 FIRST RACE
1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOW. OPT. CLAIM : $62,500 | Purse: $95,000
(4) MEMORIES OF PETER has never won here at Saratoga nor at this distance but the newly altered son of DISCO RICO may have a pace scenario edge on this field from a decent inside draw. On the sidelines for 1 year to the day, the trainer has decent stats in this layoff scenario. Catch him to beat him! (1) FRONTIER MARKET is coupled with the lightly raced (1A) UNLEVERAGED and both deserve consideration in all of the slots. (8) LEMONIST makes his 3rd start back from an April break with an ascending speed figure pattern. Dismiss at your own risk.
2 SECOND RACE
6 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $90,000
(4) ATOKA nearly stole the debut race 3 weeks back travelling a furlong longer. Luis Saez retains the mount when he obviously had options and this 2 year old UNION RAGS colt appears to be the one to catch again! (6) O’TROUBLE shows a series of solid works preparing to debut for Anthony Dutrow and Johnny V. is enticed to ride. (7) ONWARD debuts for red hot connections and the son of 2007 Travers winner STREET SENSE could be well meant at first asking.
3 THIRD RACE
1 1/16 Miles | Fillies & Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN SP. WT. | Purse: $90,000
(6) OCEAN FIRE returns to turf for strong connections and she may end up on the lead in this spot. She suffered a wide journey sprinting in her last and 2 back she may not have adored the “yielding” turf course. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this ANIMAL KINGDOM 3 year old! (9) DABINETT was a twice beaten favorite in Kentucky last year and the 4 year old returns for strong connections with a series of decent works on display. If she gets some pace to run at she could be flying through the stretch. (2) CHARREADA is yet another late runner who will be at the mercy of the pace scenario. She was screaming for more distance when the beaten favorite last out and gets it here. (3) FIRST WAVE is a lightly raced filly by WAR FRONT who may very well improve in the stretchout from a sprint to a route!
4 FOURTH RACE
6 1/2 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $92,000
(11) PERFORMER is a well bred son of SPEIGHTSTOWN who may prove to be aptly named. Trouble in the debut when he could manage but a third placing, he was professional last out while wearing down a short field of 6 going 6 furlongs. He stretches out a half furlong today and this distance figures to be right in his wheelhouse! I look for a “stalk and pounce” trip beneath Rosario. (1) SHAMROCKED needs to merely discourage the runner to his immediate right in order to possibly find himself on a loose lead here. He could be in front for a long ways. (7) PAYNE has but a single win but has never been out of the money in 6 lifetime starts. The beaten favorite in his last 2 had a troubled trip excuse in his last and could be running best in deep stretch!
5 FIFTH RACE
Forego S. Presented by Encore Boston Harbor 7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $600,000
(1) PROMISSES FULFILLED may possess the best first gear of the speed types signed on and he could be tough to catch if he breaks alertly from the rail. (3) MITOLE was the badly beaten favorite in the Grade I Vanderbilt last out following a troubled start. The 8 time winner could be right there on his best!
6 SIXTH RACE
Ketel One Ballerina S. 7 Furlongs | Fillies & Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $500,000
(2) COME DANCING sports a spectacular work pattern in returning from a June break while turning back from a route. The 5 year old mare has position on the other speed signed on and with a reputation for “firing fresh” appears strictly the one to beat! (5) MIA MISCHIEF has run well at this distance and over this track surface and she could be along in time to complete the exacta. (7) DAWN THE DESTROYER often leaves herself with too much to do in the late stages but she may close for a share.
7 SEVENTH RACE
H. Allen Jerkens S. Presented by Runhappy 7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $500,000
(1) SHANCELOT has been ultra impressive in winning all 3 lifetime starts including a just miss of the track record in destroying a field of 12 in the Grade II Amsterdam last out. He looks to be lone speed in this heat and is hard to look past for the top spot. (6) MIND CONTROL switches back to Velazquez who has been aloft for 3 of his 4 lifetime wins. While my top pick may be clear, this runner should be in the 2nd flight and has a chance to complete the gimmick. (9) HOG CREEK HUSTLE is 2 for 2 at this long sprint distance and exits a victory in the Grade I Woody Stephens on the Belmont Stakes undercard. Off since, he has worked well and broke his maiden off works so he may be ready to fire a good one. He is a must use, especially underneath!
Woodford Reserve Ballston Spa S. 1 1/16 Miles | Fillies & Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | G2 STAKES | Purse: $400,000
(5) INDIAN BLESSING drops weight from her recent efforts across the pond and she entices solid turf rider Florent Geroux in this spot. 3rd in this Stakes last year after misbehaving, she might be in line for a good trip and she could be the one to beat. (7) SCOTTISH JIG turns back from a pair of longer routes with keen speed to employ. The 4 year old SPEIGHTSTOWN filly is probably the one to catch when they turn for home! (8) STARSHIP JUBILEE is a consistent sort shipping from Canada for Kevin Attard. A solid record at this distance suggests she be considered in all of the slots.
9 NINTH RACE
Personal Ensign S. Presented by Lia Infiniti 1 1/8 Miles | Fillies & Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $700,000
(4) ELATE seeks her 3rd straight victory since returning from an April break at a venue and distance that has been kind to her before. I look for her to prevail in the narrowest of decisions. (1) MIDNIGHT BISOU seeks her 6th straight victory and Mike Smith flies East to retain the mount. She has beaten my top pick before and these 2 may be hard to separate when they hit the wire!
10 TENTH RACE
Sword Dancer S. 1 1/2 Miles | Open | 4 Year Olds & Up | G1 STAKES | Purse: $850,000
(9) SADLER’S JOY makes only his 2nd start of the year and while he finished 6th last out in the Grade II Bowling Green, he wasn’t beaten much and was “blocked” for a full sixteenth of a mile at one point in the race. With the tightener under his belt, he may finish with authority in a race that figures to have several pressing the pace. (6) YA PRIMO saw his 3 race winning streak snap when 2nd in the aforementioned Bowling Green and like my top pick, he had some trouble in the race. The Chilean invader has “bullets” in the holster and is likely the horse to beat! (8) CHANNEL MAKER was the beaten favorite exiting the same race as the top 2 and he finished 2nd in this Grade I affair last year when he was unable to run down LARRY’S PICKS longshot special GLORIOUS EMPIRE! The consistent sort should get a good stalking trip and have a chance to take all. (7) ANNALS OF TIME moves “UpInClass” making only his 3rd start since 2017 and Javier Castellano jumps off of my top pick to retain this mount. He is yet another who should be running on well late!
11 ELEVENTH RACE
Runhappy Travers S. 1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $1,250,000
(7) MUCHO GUSTO ships from the West Coast for a trainer who has done quite well in the Mid Summer Derby in recent years. This 5 time winner and son of MUCHO MACHO MAN has good tactical speed in his arsenal and that should give regular rider Joe Talamo some strategic options as the race unfolds. 2nd last out to initial Kentucky Derby “winner” MAXIMUM SECURITY in the Grade I Haskell, he seemingly needs to only pass the distance test to greet the lensman. He is worth a shot in a wide open affair. (6) TACITUS was the beaten favorite in the Grade II Jim Dandy last out and might have been best sans a horrible start. Beneath leading rider Jose Ortiz he appears to be the one to beat! (2) CODE OF HONOR is a solid fit on class and he broke his maiden in the debut here last August. He needs some pace to set up his late run and if he gets it courtesy of my 4th selection, he could run by them all! (12) TAX was my top pick in the Jim Dandy and while he didn’t disappoint winning at 4-1, he was likely aided by the misfortune that befell TACITUS in the race. Drawn widest, he may be forced to go too fast too soon and that could take a toll when the serious running begins.
12 TWELTH RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOW. OPT. CL. : $40,000 | Purse: $83,000
(9) GHOST GIANT ran on well for 3rd after being impeded at the start in a similar heat on July 26th. He is versatile enough to allow Rosario to place him anywhere depending on how the race unfolds. He could be the one in a real scrambler. (10) ROYAL ASSET has more speed than he just showed at a lower level and this altered son of crack sprinter LANGFUHR should be prominent throughout and could take all! (11) DISCRETIONARY MARQ also possesses a potent first gear and he could be the one they all have to catch. (13) DOWSE’S BEACH is a track and distance lover but mired on the “also eligible” list, he’ll need a scratch from the main body of the race in order to load the gate.
13 THIRTEENTH RACE
1 1/16 Miles | Fillies & Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN SP. WT. | Purse: $90,000
(6) RAZEENA adds the “hood” for Kiaran McLaughlin and I suspect he employed the equipment during the August 11th breeze that showed considerable improvement in focus. The 3 year old daughter of MALIBU MOON drops back to her proper level after trying a Stakes race North of the border and if she takes to the turf, she could go well! (5) MAGIC STAR is the latest high priced runner out of the Chad Brown barn and they always deserve respect 1st out. (9) FIVE ALARM ROBIN exits a solid showing going a flat mile and she sports an ascending speed figure pattern. She could take all with the right trip. (4) TO A FRIEND also adds blinkers while making her 2nd start back from a brief layoff and she may show good speed and land a share.
LL
yes it's safe.