Derby Thoughts

[orioleboy]

Well we’re a little over a week away and here are some thoughts. This is one of the deepest Derby fields I’ve seen in years. Lots of quality and 1’s on the past performances like it should be.
I’m all in on Good Magic. The champ should be ready and will love the distance. Justify remains the wild card. Immensely talented colt is obviously the fastest of this group, but he might have to be another American Pharoah to pull this off. Lightly raced and facing the Apollo curse, and at short odds, I just think the value isn’t there. I like the way Audible has looked and Mendelsohn might be the real deal (since when does Beyer give out figures for Meydan?).
Finally, how about Scat Daddy? Everyone knows I’ve been singing his praises forever as a turf sire, but it looks like his offspring can run on dirt as well. If Combatant gets in, he’ll have 4 in the gate, including 2 of the 3 favorites. Wow!
Much more later this week.
Steve

[frangooch]

You should get a good price on GM, Steve. What will he be--third or fourth in the betting? 8-10/1?

[unusualpete]

Steve, know you love Bill Mott. Liking some HOFBURG. At a spot in his career where eligible to improve a lot. That or inexperience bites down hard. Either or situation that's always getting value. Pilot upgrade adds to appeal. Feel like this will be my pick.

[eye123]

Steve,from a Dec 13th article:(followed this exact course)....also read that Brown recently said of Good Magic "this is the best he's ever seen a horse look" (can't confirm this quote)

Article: America's Best Racing 12/13/17

Brown has a framework in place for Good Magic’s path to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve, but may not finalize the details for a few months. Both Brown and Edwards said the Curlin colt will get two prep races before the first Saturday in May, though it is “unlikely” both will be in Florida, even though the colt is expected to join Brown’s Florida stable “around Christmas time.”

“It’s highly unlikely Good Magic will run two races in Florida,” Edwards said. “Gulfstream is a demanding track and Chad’s not a big fan of running multiple races in Florida. There will be a discussion with [Stonestreet owner Barbara Banke], but we trust Chad to do what he does best. He’s still the best turf trainer in the country but now he’s outperforming most guys on dirt and that makes him scary good.”

According to Brown, “there will be two preps, but I won’t say where to leave myself the option of running twice at Gulfstream, but that’s probably unlikely.”

That scenario opens the door for Good Magic to use either the Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland or the Grade 2 Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets at Aqueduct as a springboard to Churchill Downs, even if neither race has Grade 1 status.

“I’d consider the Wood or Blue Grass,” Brown said. “One thing I can say for sure is that I’m not basing his preparation for the Derby on the grade of the races. He’s already a Grade 1 winner and the big prize is the Kentucky Derby. I want to get him to the Derby ready to run the race of his life on Derby day. My concern is which bridge to use to have him ready to run his best figure.”