Flameaway

[shoes]

Traveling

No one in modern era has won the Derby having prepped at only one track (a la Justify) There haven’t been that many entrants in that category (but a few such as Gervin and Materiality recently). Sunday Silence and Chrome both won prepping only In California (but including 2 different tracks).

Medelssohn and Flameaway are arguably the most versatile.

Medelssohn has won on turf, polytrack and dirt, and on 3 continents (North America, Europe, and the Middle east (what continent is that anyway?)

Flameaway has raced and won on artificial, turf and dirt and in 4 states/provinces: Ontario, New York, Florida, and Kentucky. He ran in a 5th state- California.

The latter is one of a few long shots I am seriously considering.

[maclr11]

Flameaway is turning into the horse I think I am going to use underneath, he will be forwardly placed, he keeps trying. The pace shouldn't be crazy hot and he seems to just keep defying the odds. 

It really doesn't seem to matter where or when he just runs. 

[bobtailnag]

There is a very good chance the pace will be, at least, warm, and very possibly hot.

You know Justify want's to be up there and you know Promises will be in front. Noble wants to be right on their tails and Flame wants to be there too. If Snapper and Reride also make the gate they will probably be up there somewhere too.

If there is some heat up front, with all the good stayers in this group we'll probably see a second hot pace in the last quarter mile to the wire. Can't wait to see the post positions.

[shoes]

Snapper Sinclair is not going and Reride seems doubtful. It looks to me like there is less pace them usual. Pace would have to be created from the pressers- which could happen.

[frangooch]

Without a hot pace, Justify runs away with it. But Promises will be speeding.

[mysaladdays]

speaking of flameway, if you add up the number of horses he has raced in his career, and then add up the ones he has beaten, it's the 2nd highest of the field. Actually and maybe suprisingly for some, My Boy Jack raced more horse than Flameway, and beat more of them.  

Sometimes when you start doing these "charts within a chart" on your own, you start seeing patterns that you don't see when looking at PPs.

Not that this is really an angle or anything, and I can't tell you the potentcy, since I haven't kept track of it, but I do these kinds of exercises on my own every year just so I can see patterns I may not have seen otherwise. Another one that I do is add up all the works and all the races and see which horse has logged the highest number of furlongs. I also split that into previous year and present year. This gives me an idea of "fitness", because you don't get that sitting around in the barn. (outside of sheer brilliance/natural talent, I happen to be one of those people who believe that fitness wins G1 races. )

We all have our little chart-within-a-chart I'm sure.  as aid to making sense of a field of 20. 

[shoes]

mysaladdays- I agreee with you on fitness, but how do you take into account the gallops which would seem to be an important part of that? I don't know here you can compare either the length or speed of cumulative gallops of the contenders.

[mysaladdays]

Apr 27, 2018 7:25:29 GMT -5 shoes said:

mysaladdays- I agreee with you on fitness, but how do you take into account the gallops which would seem to be an important part of that? I don't know here you can compare either the length or speed of cumulative gallops of the contenders.

You can't.  When deKock was putting all those long gallops / works into Mubtaahij a lot of people in US were scratching their heads, thinking he was doing too much with the horse.  Fast forward, this horse is still fit, still racing, and accomplished quite a lot after the derby, compared to so many other young derby horses who are either ruined or hustled off to the breeding shed.    So, if anything, fitness certainly benefits the horse.  

We also don't know what other things are being done with horses, looking at the past to horses who had hypberbaric chamber treatments,  ESWT, and other high tech stuff that we don't get to know about. 

This is why I like Hong Kong racing where as a bettor you get to see vet records, etc.   There is plenty that is hidden from american bettors and every year you are slapping your head when you find out about it.  (big brown's meltdown in the holding shed on hottest day of the year in the Belmont I did not learn of til AFTER the race).  

I don't like horses who have had injuries, bone chip surgery, or who have bar shoes (Girvin), etc.  Chinks in armour require a true champion to overcome, but then again Big Brown barely had a hoof, it was all wire and plastic, and he ran pretty good.

But yes, you can only know what you know, and since we are not privy to horses' entire fitness regimen, or treatments, we are 1/4 blind when capping.

[cherokeescot]

Hey Shoes , that continent you were looking for is Asia 😜

[shoes]

Thanks Bev! I always depended on my buddy to handle the geography questions on quiz/trivia might at the bar.