The Oaks

[shoes]

I have always loved The Oaks. When I first started going to the Derby it was the only other stakes race on the weekend. Heck CD didn't even have a turf course then. I love that you get a great collection of fillies in a more manageable field size. We've had favorites win but also great long shots. Since the institution of the Oaks-Derby double (and later the Oaks-Wooford-Derby p3 it has been that key first leg in a bet that has offered great value.

We never seem to get much Oaks chatter here. Hoping that can change- I'll start it out: Looking at The Oaks form, I realized that only two fillies have run further than 1 1/16: Rayya who went 1 3/16 against the boys in Dubai (and finished 2nd by 18 lengths to Mendelssohn) and ……. My Miss Lily who won the Gazelle at the Oaks distance of 1 1/8. Lily is a beautiful grey out of Tapit and she looked great galloping today. I also caught an interview with trainer Mark Hennig and he said he has not been to Louisville since they renovated it and he only comes when he has a big chance. Trainer-speak I know. Still I am really warming up to her as an excellent alternative to the expected 2 favorites, Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou.

[eye123]

I’m not a big fan of futures wagering. Normally your tying up money on a quess(uninformed most times, I know I’m not related to Baffert or Pletcher) and best case scenario your guess actually makes the race and is not burned up on the wait. The options in the past offered, Derby only. This year however they offered something that caught my EYE. The Oaks/Derby DD. This I had an opinion on. This I thought interesting. And here is why I decided to give the wager a go.


Keeneland second race Oct 25th 2017. Made a wager and watched as the filly broke badly,took the overland route and barely got beat by a head at the wire. The winner who had 10 lengths on my wager(at the ¼) and got the shortest route possible lasting by just that head margin. The winner went on to win next obvious step, an Allowance other then….then won the Trapeze in her next effort,finishing third in the Martha Washington, and on next to winning the Honeybee Stakes. That second race on Oct 25th was a wow moment. Something to take note of. Watched (my choice)as she slowly progressed...then showing some of that brilliance in an 11 length romp on an off track(boy do I hope we see moisture on Oaks day). She’s a granddaughter of Winning Colors and should relish the mile and an eighth. Hope she stays healthy to the 4th. Will be fun,win,lose or draw.

Midnight,Montomoy look tough...also Richards Rayya was impressive in finishing second to Mendelssohn….once getting to the golden rail...no beating him there.

Shoes, watched the workout show also. Hennig seems like nice guy, would like to see his filly do well also.(funny the comparison, his twitter account to De Rosa’s) ps I follow De rosa’s..nice tidbits now and again….

[Deleted]

'i' note that of the top 20 there are 12 saratoga grads in this and perhaps 13 if snappy sinclair get in...lol...asmussen will then have two runners...pletcher with 4 in the top 5 point list...and dale roman with two but in the oaks has the best horses it seems as he does better with the fillies and mares it seems that he trains...and baffert has two in this.....winstar breeder / owners have at least 4 horses who might end up the top four in the derby / preakness or belmont races as a 1-2-3-4 order , lol...and the stables once again are stables that normally have ended up in the top ten earnings year after years end for many years have 11 horses in this race...lol...etc...assmussen has a few on the cusp of the top twenty and may well win a few other races on the first saturday of may...lol..