Free Derby PP”s

[1hooper]

Brisnet,by point totals. www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Derby18Points.pdf
Hooper

[bobtailnag]

During first look we probably all do the same thing - look at every horse for reasons you believe the horse could win the race. I also then go back and look for reasons I believe the horse might lose the race. I make notes on each horse on why, if it loses, it could lose. I only look at their 3yr old races and pay no attention to Byers, Timeforms, Throu, etc etc etc. This is not my decision making system - it just keeps me aware that there are negatives on most of the horses I'll be trying to sort out before the final time I make my decisions.

That said I wound up with 4 horses that I have not found any anything to believe it has shown a reason it could lose ( Magnum, Audible - Justify) or, in the case of Mendelssohn, I don't have enough info to feel comfortable to put him in either category. That's where I stand today but I'm sure it will be noticeably different in 10 days from now.

[Badactor]

Lots of time to study while laying in a hospital bed in Oklahoma...
in addition to all the probing and poking and antibiotics, PPs are the best medicine.
Thank you for posting the link, Hooper. I get released today to go home and back to work.
Been working as many hours as I can between doctor visits and treatments for this diverticulitis.
Looking forward to reading what folks have to say about the big race as I try to make a case for Lone Sailor.

[bobtailnag]

Sorry to hear you're still fighting that problem. While hospitals are a great place when you're sick, they're still miserable to be there while you on the mend. Had to spend several days in one last month - almost all in an IC where they won't get you get out of bed for any reason what-so-ever. Glad it hear you'll be heading home today.

I'm afraid your Sailor will be in dire straits in this race. If there isn't some kind of quick early pace, the E & EP types will get the best of it. And if there is some pace and Audible, Mendalssohn, Magic and/or Enticed are intentionally held back a several lengths from the fray, you'll get first run at the flagging speeders. And if they don't and it's set up for a stayer. Sailor is just one of 4 that will be vying for the late lead. And if any stayer catches an inside gate, he'll probably end up way to the back for trapped in a sea of horse flesh. You do love those 50/1 shots and the Sailor does fit that profile.

"May the Schwartz be with us"

[frangooch]

Glad to know you re on the mend, Dell. Amazing work by Lone Sailor the other day. I hope he didn't spend all his torpedoes then.

Last year, I had the first 6 horses in the Derby on my ticket---except for the winner! Someone started a "what did we learn from this race?" thread a couple of days later, and as I recall, my comment was, "Bet the fastest horse, even if you don't like him", or words to that effect. This would have produced a winner with Nyquist, Pharoah, and Chrome, also. This year that horse is Justify. There are things not to like about him, but....

I would add Bolt d'Oro to bobtail's list, in what is surely the most interesting Derby in years. What makes this race stand out is not only the number of horses with a reasonable chance to win, but also their high quality, imo.

My Boy Jack on the super ticket!

[DoctorDisaster]

I think they have it right.
I have been using BRIS for over twenty years.I opened an account after I was fed up with DRF.To be fair it wasn't all their fault.The local distributor up here was gawd awful.If I couldn't find one of the two they left at the store I would have to wait until OTB opened.Dude I'm up at five!Sure while the Spa was running you could buy them at McDonalds.After that.Form ? What form?You mean their still racing?
I'm rambling ,back to BRIS.
Although I don't take it as Gospel their Prime Power ratings are often very accurate.What I look for is the spread.This year we have a group that is hard to argue against.
Good Magic      153.4
Audible            152.8
Justify             152.6
Magnum Moon 149.7
We have less than a point separating the top three.Then we drop almost three points to the next group.The way I read this is, within five points is possible.More needs an act of God.Right now I have it Justify on top because he's the only one that really impressed me in the preps.Good Magic is the one I see most likely to progress.Chad Brown has shown a great ability to have his charge ready for the spot he picks.No doubt this is the spot.BUT Justify has two BRIS top speed numbers,Last Race(which is a big angle) and Back Speed(which means, mind the cycle).More important is his leading Late Pace Last Race figure.This signifies fitness and a high probability to carry that speed at a longer distance.Justify does look like a classic bounce candidate but this is not his trainers first rodeo.Right now,sight unseen,I have it
70/30 Justify/Good Magic.
ALL to SHOW

[eye123]

Current overseas and Vegas books have Justify and Mendelssohn at 4-1 co-favorites.(two Scat Daddies) Justify for me will be hard to use.(for several reasons, none of them the not starting at 2yo one) Romans quote on sending Promises Fulfilled to the lead [“Let’s just say I wouldn’t want to be the horse in front of him trying to get ahead of him, at least if they are trying to win”] Justify has had it all his own way so far(facing only 17 horses in his three races)he will be facing 19 here. Will probably go off at near the current book odds(4-1)....to low in what is a solid group here. He may be a super horse(this is the test)....but, this is the Derby, can get 4-1 any day of the week.....will shoot from the three point line here..

PS...have pool three Oaks/Derby doubles with Eskimo Kisses, and should she win will have dd's to 8 runners in the Derby: will pays from 300-1 on Good Magic and Bolt de Oro to 2000-1 to Combatant....then could just sit back with out having to decipher the Derby winner....nice group, multiple ways to go....let's go Eskimo !