Bombs Away?

[gam]

The Belmont stakes has a reputation for providing upset winners.  Out of curiosity I turned to the internet last night to see what the more recent history of the race has actually been.  In the last 20 runnings 11 were won with horses having double digit odds (10-1 or higher) going all the way up to 70-1 (sarava).  Throw in two 6-1 winners and 13 of 20 were won by horses paying greater than $10. There is also a 4-1 horse in there, too.  I'm not saying you should toss WOW and Tacitus but if you did the odds would actually be on your side.  

[hezethebest]

Agree with the recent history, George. That said, overall I think it's 1 of the most consistent races won by the favorite at 42% or so. Are you all set for Travers weekend? Good luck Saturday.

LL

[Badactor]

I'm thinking the very same thing, gam...
playing against #9 War Of Will and #10 Tacitus
in the top two spots (W/P) will be the money angle.
Imagining both favorites Off The Board conjures visions
of Alex Trebek "3 P" level payouts!

[gam]

Larry, your top pick fits the above message. Just started looking at the two cards last night, so no real opinions as yet.

Am I all set for Travers? Umm, in a word, "no." It's over two months away, LOL.

[hezethebest]

George, you will learn eventually that the older you get the quicker time will go by. I certainly hope Hooper isn't thinking like you are or we will be shut out of our condo!

LL

[DoctorDisaster]

Jun 5, 2019 11:19:26 GMT -5 gam said:

The Belmont stakes has a reputation for providing upset winners.  Out of curiosity I turned to the internet last night to see what the more recent history of the race has actually been.  In the last 20 runnings 11 were won with horses having double digit odds (10-1 or higher) going all the way up to 70-1 (sarava).  Throw in two 6-1 winners and 13 of 20 were won by horses paying greater than $10. There is also a 4-1 horse in there, too.  I'm not saying you should toss WOW and Tacitus but if you did the odds would actually be on your side.  

Try this one one for size.

Intrepid Heart 10/1,TAP Tapit colt is half to Commissioner(also TAP)finished second by a nose to Tonalist @ 28/1 in Belmont2014.I think that 10/1 will hold,we may see more like 12 or 13.I'll be giving him a close look gametime ,along with others.He has the right rider,just needs to break well and focus and JR could make it a stroll in the Park.

[mysaladdays]

I was looking at combos of sires and dam sires who won at over 9F and some of the horses who came out well were Tacitus, Everfast, Bourbon War with some potential in Intrepid Heart and maybe even Tax. master fencer would have to be a take-it-on-faith.
Haven't looked at Larry's picks yet.
I lost my butt in the Preakness, but did splendidly in the Derby, so I have no idea how I will fare in the Belmont or even who I will key yet. Will study it for 2 more days first.    I may just repeat my derby strategy and put some single w/p/s tickets on a few horses with good odds that I like, and not try to do an exotic.

[spiderjohn]

I like Tacitus to win, however I can see Larry’s Tax as a possible + hopefully value. A very interesting race card!

[gam]

Speaking of races with a recent history of bombs, the Manhattan has had a three high priced winners in the last three years ($38, $57 and $30).

[hezethebest]

gam, with what I consider only 2 primary speed types signed on (EPICAL and OLYMPICO) I think another decent price could get there again in the Manhattan. I'm using both hoping they don't kill each other plus a couple more (QURBAAN & BRICKS & MORTAR) in my lateral spread gimmicks.

LL

[gam]

Curious about Raging Bull. Thorograph ppl believe the turf was “dead” for at least the Turf Classic on Derby Day. Rosario ends up on Channel Maker who looks to me to be better at 11-12 furlongs.

[shoes]

Intrepid Heart has been tabbed by a ton of people on TVG, Byk's show including Byk and DRF. Kinda like him too but 10-1 may be unrealistic if the buzz is any indication.

[mysaladdays]

I read thru all the veterinary med reports...nothing of note at all for your typical equine athlete. Of note, Tax has an acupunturist. Larry Jones uses them in his barn, I like integrative medicine so bravo.
Tax is running in those new plastic shoes. I don't know a lot about them but they are supposed to be very lightweight. It's an interesting technology.