LARRY'S PICKS for the 144th PREAKNESS Stakes!
May 15, 2019 19:26:34 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on May 15, 2019 19:26:34 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 144th Preakness Stakes, the 2nd jewel in the Triple Crown! Unless you were trapped in a cave somewhere you undoubtedly have heard about the history that was made at the 145th Kentucky Derby just 2 weeks ago! For the 1st time in history LARRY’S PICKS while sensing that a longshot winner was due, tabs a horse on top that would have paid $100.00+ at final odds of 52-1 had he won the Derby only to see a different $100.00+ horse wear the roses at 65-1! Unprecedented and not likely to ever happen again, that was history in the making! In retrospect the 2 scratches that occurred pre-race likely doomed my top pick SPINOFF from the start. While he wore saddle cloth #19 per his post position draw, he actually loaded the gate in #17 due to the scratches that occurred in posts 11 and 12. Long time serious fans of the Kentucky Derby know that now in 145 runnings of the race, post position #17 is the lone gate to never produce a Kentucky Derby winner!
Also, in a related Kentucky Derby story, for the first time in history the 1st horse across the finish line was disqualified for an apparent infraction during the running of the race. The merits of the disqualification have been so endlessly debated that one must wonder if that bit of history might not repeat itself one day. Be that as it may, 13 runners representing the largest field since 2011 will line up to answer the starters’ call in Baltimore this Saturday at the 2nd oldest thoroughbred track in the country, Pimlico. This week my analysis will be in the order of favoritism as I see the betting public setting the post time odds, with my personal “Selection” page on display at the end. I hope all who read this will enjoy the 144th Preakness Stakes!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 13 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(#4) IMPROBABLE 2-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
This Kentucky bred by CITY ZIP is but 1 of 4 runners from the Derby deciding to wheel back on 2 weeks rest. Trained by Bob Baffert, he was flipped to the post time favorite in Louisville very late in the wagering. Baffert seeks his 8th Preakness victory which would set a new record for the race. Ultimately awarded the 4th place purse money after the DQ of MAXIMUM SECURITY he represents the highest finisher of the 4 returnees. As Irad Ortiz lands on BOURBON WAR Mike Smith will climb aboard the colt for the very first time. A “stalker” by nature, he should be in close attendance throughout as the likely post time favorite and the horse to beat.
(#1) WAR OF WILL 4-1 JOCKEY - TYLER GAFFALIONE
This colt ran well from the difficult rail post position in Louisville before becoming one of the controversial players that led to the Derby DQ. Ultimately fading to 8th, he was right there with the leaders when the serious running began and some may feel he could have proven best sans the late trouble. He will likely attract considerable attention as 1 of the prime speed types signed on.
(#7) ALWAYSMINING 5-1 JOCKEY - DANIEL CENTENO
There is always an obligatory Maryland based colt that seems to show up for this race but at least this years’ representative comes with a solid resume, albeit against lesser. The winner of 6 straight including 5 ungraded Stakes events, he owns 7 overall victories at 5 different distances. Normally a front runner, he did show a new dimension last out when coming from slightly off the pace in capturing the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel. While the winning time for that 9 furlong event wasn’t anything special, he did win by 11 lengths so he likely went as fast as he needed to. A top local jock has been aboard throughout the winning streak and he will likely command some support despite the step up in class!
(#12) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE 7-1 JOCKEY - JOSE ORTIZ
This SCAT DADDY Kentucky bred was the beaten favorite last out in the Grade III Lexington at Keeneland on April 13th. He had some trouble in that race so he did well to save the place. That said, his prior placing in the quick Grade III Sunland Derby wasn’t exactly flattered when that race winner CUTTING HUMOR reported home 11th in Louisville. 1 of at least 4 apparent speed types, he would appear to need clever handling by Ortiz who like Smith on IMPROBABLE will be climbing aboard for the first time on Saturday.
(#13) WIN WIN WIN 8-1 JOCKEY - JULIAN PIMENTAL
This HAT TRICK 3 year old split the field after a wide trip in Kentucky before ultimately being placed 9th following the domino effect of the DQ. Stakes placed in back to back Grade II events to begin his serious Triple Crown prep campaign, he has kept good company racing against several of these. 1 of 4 likely closers in the race, he would appreciate some pace to run at in order to show his best. He could gain a share following a clean trip and a well timed move!
(#2) BOURBON WAR 9-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
Like WIN WIN WIN here is another colt who typically does his best running in the latter stages of a race. Off since a non threatening 4th in the Grade I Florida Derby, the connections will employ the hood in a likely attempt to get him more involved early on. Lightly raced making only his 6th lifetime start, he could have a forward move in him today.
(#5) OWENDALE 12-1 JOCKEY - FLORENT GEROUX
The upset winner of the Grade III Lexington last out, here is yet another colt who could find himself at the mercy of the pace scenario as he seems to go best when taking back and making a strong late run. He has run okay from a stalking posture before but in optional claiming events where the competition may have been suspect. I would look for him late, if at all!
(#11) LAUGHING FOX 14-1 JOCKEY - RICARDO SANTANA
Strong connections bring this UNION RAGS colt here following a victory in the Oaklawn Invitational. Previously, he had met and been beaten by several of these and with 3 victories yet being unplaced otherwise in 7 lifetime starts, the “feast or famine” type seems destined for a mid pack finish.
(#3) WARRIOR’S CHARGE 15-1 JOCKEY - JAVIER CASTELLANO
This Florida bred by MUNNINGS has finally figured out the game as he powerfully rolled through the maiden and next level condition in his last 2 outings which followed 3 straight bottom trifecta finishes. Not originally nominated to the Triple Crown races, his connections must pony up $150,000.00 for the privilege of trying the Preakness and/or Belmont. That fact alone may cause one to ponder his chances. 1 of 2 being saddled by trainer Brad Cox, he ends up 1 of several who may have designs on setting the pace. If he can avoid a speed duel, he may be the one to catch as they turn for home!
(#8) SIGNALMAN 16-1 JOCKEY - BRIAN HERNANDEZ
This bargain basement son of GENERAL QUARTERS sports mostly back class as the winner of the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club in his 2 year old finale which followed Grade I placings in both the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and the BC Juvenile at Churchill last November. With only 2 starts so far in 2019, he did improve to a 3rd place finish in the BlueGrass last out and he is eligible to take another forward step in this, his 3rd race back from a layoff. Regular rider Brian Hernandez knows him well and he will likely try to secure a good stalking journey in hopes that the early speed comes back to him. While others look better for the top spot, he could garner a share in the bottom of gimmicks!
(#9) BODEXPRESS 21-1 JOCKEY - JOHN VELAZQUEZ
This camera shy son of BODEMEISTER pressed the pace 3 wide while leaving from the widest slot in the Derby only to check out of it when impeded at the 5/16ths pole. His solid 2nd place finish in his penultimate race, the Florida Derby was flattered somewhat through the efforts exhibited by MAXIMUM SECURITY and CODE OF HONOR in Louisville. John Velazquez as a 22% “Kodak Moment” guy replaces Chris Landeros who visits the lensman at about 9% of the time and nothing against Chris, but this must be viewed as a positive jockey switch. I look for Velazquez to secure a good stalking spot behind the ample speed signed on and this colt should gain a major share when all is said and done!
(#6) MARKET KING 27-1 JOCKEY - JON COURT
This pricey son of INTO MISCHIEF is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and he hasn’t raced since a well beaten 11th in the April 6th BlueGrass Stakes. Prior to that he did finish 3rd behind OMAHA BEACH and GAME WINNER in the Grade II Rebel Stakes but again he was 8+ lengths back of the top 2. He was entered in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard but was scratched by the vets during the post parade. As such he was required to work at least twice under the supervision of a vet before being cleared to race again and he breezed well on May 7th and 11th to satisfy that requirement. He should add more fuel to the pace scenario but appears a notch below many of those signed on today and a minor award is likely his ceiling.
(#10) EVERFAST 33-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
“SELECTIONS”
1st (#4) IMPROBABLE 2-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
The beaten favorite 2 weeks ago in Louisville raced evenly while covered up and he was ultimately beaten about 3 lengths. He exhibited his class early on while winning a Grade I Stakes as a 2 year old and he really hasn’t run a bad race to date. He is versatile enough to give Mike Smith some options on the racetrack and he may prove best in giving Bob Baffert a record 8th Preakness victory. Take the short price and find some value underneath!
2nd (#9) BODEXPRESS 21-1 JOCKEY - JOHN VELAZQUEZ
While he remains a Maiden, this Kentucky bred trained by Gustavo Delgado has run as fast as most of these and while he had an eventful trip from a wide draw in Louisville, his prior form was validated through the solid efforts exhibited by the original 1st and 3rd Derby finishers. He has flashed a good tracking gear and I think the slight turn back may suit him well especially given the anticipated pace scenario. He could add value to the gimmicks beneath the heady Johnny Velazquez.
3rd (#13) WIN WIN WIN 8-1 JOCKEY - JULIAN PIMENTAL
I look for this Florida bred to drop back and make a late run into what should be an honest pace. Another that will likely appreciate the slight turn back, he should be passing tiring runners through the lane and given a clean trip he could be a money player!
LL
Also, in a related Kentucky Derby story, for the first time in history the 1st horse across the finish line was disqualified for an apparent infraction during the running of the race. The merits of the disqualification have been so endlessly debated that one must wonder if that bit of history might not repeat itself one day. Be that as it may, 13 runners representing the largest field since 2011 will line up to answer the starters’ call in Baltimore this Saturday at the 2nd oldest thoroughbred track in the country, Pimlico. This week my analysis will be in the order of favoritism as I see the betting public setting the post time odds, with my personal “Selection” page on display at the end. I hope all who read this will enjoy the 144th Preakness Stakes!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 13 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(#4) IMPROBABLE 2-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
This Kentucky bred by CITY ZIP is but 1 of 4 runners from the Derby deciding to wheel back on 2 weeks rest. Trained by Bob Baffert, he was flipped to the post time favorite in Louisville very late in the wagering. Baffert seeks his 8th Preakness victory which would set a new record for the race. Ultimately awarded the 4th place purse money after the DQ of MAXIMUM SECURITY he represents the highest finisher of the 4 returnees. As Irad Ortiz lands on BOURBON WAR Mike Smith will climb aboard the colt for the very first time. A “stalker” by nature, he should be in close attendance throughout as the likely post time favorite and the horse to beat.
(#1) WAR OF WILL 4-1 JOCKEY - TYLER GAFFALIONE
This colt ran well from the difficult rail post position in Louisville before becoming one of the controversial players that led to the Derby DQ. Ultimately fading to 8th, he was right there with the leaders when the serious running began and some may feel he could have proven best sans the late trouble. He will likely attract considerable attention as 1 of the prime speed types signed on.
(#7) ALWAYSMINING 5-1 JOCKEY - DANIEL CENTENO
There is always an obligatory Maryland based colt that seems to show up for this race but at least this years’ representative comes with a solid resume, albeit against lesser. The winner of 6 straight including 5 ungraded Stakes events, he owns 7 overall victories at 5 different distances. Normally a front runner, he did show a new dimension last out when coming from slightly off the pace in capturing the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel. While the winning time for that 9 furlong event wasn’t anything special, he did win by 11 lengths so he likely went as fast as he needed to. A top local jock has been aboard throughout the winning streak and he will likely command some support despite the step up in class!
(#12) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE 7-1 JOCKEY - JOSE ORTIZ
This SCAT DADDY Kentucky bred was the beaten favorite last out in the Grade III Lexington at Keeneland on April 13th. He had some trouble in that race so he did well to save the place. That said, his prior placing in the quick Grade III Sunland Derby wasn’t exactly flattered when that race winner CUTTING HUMOR reported home 11th in Louisville. 1 of at least 4 apparent speed types, he would appear to need clever handling by Ortiz who like Smith on IMPROBABLE will be climbing aboard for the first time on Saturday.
(#13) WIN WIN WIN 8-1 JOCKEY - JULIAN PIMENTAL
This HAT TRICK 3 year old split the field after a wide trip in Kentucky before ultimately being placed 9th following the domino effect of the DQ. Stakes placed in back to back Grade II events to begin his serious Triple Crown prep campaign, he has kept good company racing against several of these. 1 of 4 likely closers in the race, he would appreciate some pace to run at in order to show his best. He could gain a share following a clean trip and a well timed move!
(#2) BOURBON WAR 9-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
Like WIN WIN WIN here is another colt who typically does his best running in the latter stages of a race. Off since a non threatening 4th in the Grade I Florida Derby, the connections will employ the hood in a likely attempt to get him more involved early on. Lightly raced making only his 6th lifetime start, he could have a forward move in him today.
(#5) OWENDALE 12-1 JOCKEY - FLORENT GEROUX
The upset winner of the Grade III Lexington last out, here is yet another colt who could find himself at the mercy of the pace scenario as he seems to go best when taking back and making a strong late run. He has run okay from a stalking posture before but in optional claiming events where the competition may have been suspect. I would look for him late, if at all!
(#11) LAUGHING FOX 14-1 JOCKEY - RICARDO SANTANA
Strong connections bring this UNION RAGS colt here following a victory in the Oaklawn Invitational. Previously, he had met and been beaten by several of these and with 3 victories yet being unplaced otherwise in 7 lifetime starts, the “feast or famine” type seems destined for a mid pack finish.
(#3) WARRIOR’S CHARGE 15-1 JOCKEY - JAVIER CASTELLANO
This Florida bred by MUNNINGS has finally figured out the game as he powerfully rolled through the maiden and next level condition in his last 2 outings which followed 3 straight bottom trifecta finishes. Not originally nominated to the Triple Crown races, his connections must pony up $150,000.00 for the privilege of trying the Preakness and/or Belmont. That fact alone may cause one to ponder his chances. 1 of 2 being saddled by trainer Brad Cox, he ends up 1 of several who may have designs on setting the pace. If he can avoid a speed duel, he may be the one to catch as they turn for home!
(#8) SIGNALMAN 16-1 JOCKEY - BRIAN HERNANDEZ
This bargain basement son of GENERAL QUARTERS sports mostly back class as the winner of the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club in his 2 year old finale which followed Grade I placings in both the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and the BC Juvenile at Churchill last November. With only 2 starts so far in 2019, he did improve to a 3rd place finish in the BlueGrass last out and he is eligible to take another forward step in this, his 3rd race back from a layoff. Regular rider Brian Hernandez knows him well and he will likely try to secure a good stalking journey in hopes that the early speed comes back to him. While others look better for the top spot, he could garner a share in the bottom of gimmicks!
(#9) BODEXPRESS 21-1 JOCKEY - JOHN VELAZQUEZ
This camera shy son of BODEMEISTER pressed the pace 3 wide while leaving from the widest slot in the Derby only to check out of it when impeded at the 5/16ths pole. His solid 2nd place finish in his penultimate race, the Florida Derby was flattered somewhat through the efforts exhibited by MAXIMUM SECURITY and CODE OF HONOR in Louisville. John Velazquez as a 22% “Kodak Moment” guy replaces Chris Landeros who visits the lensman at about 9% of the time and nothing against Chris, but this must be viewed as a positive jockey switch. I look for Velazquez to secure a good stalking spot behind the ample speed signed on and this colt should gain a major share when all is said and done!
(#6) MARKET KING 27-1 JOCKEY - JON COURT
This pricey son of INTO MISCHIEF is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and he hasn’t raced since a well beaten 11th in the April 6th BlueGrass Stakes. Prior to that he did finish 3rd behind OMAHA BEACH and GAME WINNER in the Grade II Rebel Stakes but again he was 8+ lengths back of the top 2. He was entered in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard but was scratched by the vets during the post parade. As such he was required to work at least twice under the supervision of a vet before being cleared to race again and he breezed well on May 7th and 11th to satisfy that requirement. He should add more fuel to the pace scenario but appears a notch below many of those signed on today and a minor award is likely his ceiling.
(#10) EVERFAST 33-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
While this TAKE CHARGE INDY colt nearly pulled off a result so shocking as to be rivaled by only the daily results on “The Maury Show” when 2nd at 128-1 4 back in the Holy Bull, that race appears to be an aberration when viewed against the rest of his resume.
“SELECTIONS”
1st (#4) IMPROBABLE 2-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
The beaten favorite 2 weeks ago in Louisville raced evenly while covered up and he was ultimately beaten about 3 lengths. He exhibited his class early on while winning a Grade I Stakes as a 2 year old and he really hasn’t run a bad race to date. He is versatile enough to give Mike Smith some options on the racetrack and he may prove best in giving Bob Baffert a record 8th Preakness victory. Take the short price and find some value underneath!
2nd (#9) BODEXPRESS 21-1 JOCKEY - JOHN VELAZQUEZ
While he remains a Maiden, this Kentucky bred trained by Gustavo Delgado has run as fast as most of these and while he had an eventful trip from a wide draw in Louisville, his prior form was validated through the solid efforts exhibited by the original 1st and 3rd Derby finishers. He has flashed a good tracking gear and I think the slight turn back may suit him well especially given the anticipated pace scenario. He could add value to the gimmicks beneath the heady Johnny Velazquez.
3rd (#13) WIN WIN WIN 8-1 JOCKEY - JULIAN PIMENTAL
I look for this Florida bred to drop back and make a late run into what should be an honest pace. Another that will likely appreciate the slight turn back, he should be passing tiring runners through the lane and given a clean trip he could be a money player!
LL
