LARRY'S PICKS for the 145th KENTUCKY DERBY!
May 1, 2019 14:19:23 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on May 1, 2019 14:19:23 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 145th KENTUCKY DERBY, the most exciting 2 minutes in sports! A full field of 20 colts expect to answer the starters’ call seeking the fame and glory that accompanies a victory in the “RUN FOR THE ROSES”. My analysis will be in post position order with projected final odds as I see the betting public setting them, and of course my personal “Selection” page will be on display at the end. I hope you enjoy the 145th KENTUCKY DERBY!
The 2019 edition of LARRY’S PICKS for the KENTUCKY DERBY is quite likely the most anticipated write-up since the release of the Mueller report! For the last week I have toiled on the beach in Fort Lauderdale hoping to find the right clues to solving this puzzle and typical of most, this edition is surely a wide open affair. Consider for a moment that 11 of the 20 runners lining up this year have NEVER finished out of the trifecta in 55 individual races, evidence of a classy assemblage indeed. That said, the winner may not even come from that ultra consistent group! While in Fort Lauderdale I spent an afternoon at Gulfstream Park with the very personable Hall of Fame jockey, Walter Blum. What a pleasure and a truly memorable day for me! I am hopeful that we might see him again later this year at Saratoga. I hope Mr. Blum and everyone else enjoys this edition of LARRY’S PICKS and I hope that the time invested will help produce a profitable day for all!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 13 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general I would invite you to visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com! Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(1) WAR OF WILL 27-1 JOCKEY – TYLER GAFFALIONE
This speedy son of WAR FRONT snapped a 3 race winning streak when he had an eventful trip finishing 9th last out in the Louisiana Derby as the odds on favorite. When FERDINAND won as my top pick in 1986, he was the 1st to win from the rail in 23 years and it hasn’t happened since! It takes a patient ride on a horse that likes to do his best running late in order to prevail from the rail and Willie Shoemaker rewrote the textbook with his masterful handling of FERDINAND back in 1986. The inside post is not kind to speed types and I would expect this colt to show the effects of being hard used early on when the serious running begins!
(2) TAX 23-1 JOCKEY – JUNIOR ALVARADO
This son of ARCH won the Grade III Withers Stakes to begin his 3 year old campaign before finishing 2nd last out in the Grade II Wood Memorial. This is potentially another tough post position draw for a runner who wants to assume and maintain a stalking posture. He will need clever handling and a clean trip if he hopes to fill one of the top money spots.
(3) BY MY STANDARDS 26-1 JOCKEY – GABRIEL SAEZ
This colt was sired by GOLDENCENTS who was versatile while winning races at varying distances up to 9 furlongs but he struggled at 1 ¼ miles finishing 17th in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. BY MY STANDARDS upset the Grade II Louisiana Derby 6 weeks back and that race was one of the faster 9 furlong preps this year. Saez rode the ill-fated EIGHT BELLES to a gutsy 2nd place finish in the 2008 Derby, his lone other ride. Others appear better bred for the distance and a minor award may prove to be his fate.
(4) GRAY MAGICIAN 65-1 JOCKEY – DRAYDEN VAN DYKE
This colt has but his maiden victory from 8 lifetime starts but did finish 2nd in the rich Group II UAE Derby in Dubai last out. Joel Rosario rode him that day but opts for GAME WINNER in this event so Van Dyke will climb aboard the GRAYDAR colt for the very 1st time on Saturday. As wide open as this race appears, a victory by this “Magician” would be so shocking as to be rivaled only by the results seen daily on “The Maury Show”!
(5) IMPROBABLE 7-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
This $200,000.00 Keeneland purchase is a son of CITY ZIP and he was a Grade I winner on the West Coast as a 2 year old. 2nd to likely Derby favorite OMAHA BEACH last out in the Arkansas Derby, he hasn’t run a bad race to date and will likely attract considerable wagering attention with Ortiz back aboard. The 1 race experiment wearing the hood is over and the connections will look to gain a good stalking journey. With racing luck he could garner a share.
(6) VEKOMA 13-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
This lightly raced son of CANDY RIDE was an impressive winner of the Grade II Blue Grass Stakes last out and Castellano retains the mount for trainer George Weaver. The colt showed promise early on while capturing the Grade III Nashua Stakes as a 2 year old. While I would have preferred to see the colt work over the CD surface, these are strong connections who could land a share following a perfect trip!
(7) MAXIMUM SECURITY 7-1 JOCKEY – LUIS SAEZ
The lone undefeated colt in the field at 4 for 4 is this son of NEW YEAR’S DAY and he is trained by high percentage trainer, Jason Servis. His style is no secret and while I loved him last out when he went wire to wire in the paceless Grade I Florida Derby, he can expect some company on the engine today. Initially offered up in a $16,000.00 claimer, he has already become a “rags to riches” story that can only be built upon should he fare well here. In a scenario where “7’s are wild” I note that riding this #7 is Saez’s 7th Kentucky Derby mount to date and curiously, the best finish he has achieved to date is 7th! At a projected 7-1 odds, if he somehow shakes loose on the lead he could be in front for a very long ways!
(8) TACITUS 8-1 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
This late running son of potent sire TAPIT seeks his 4th straight victory following back to back Grade II wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial. Trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, he entices jockey Jose Ortiz who has been aloft in all 4 lifetime starts and elects to stay here when he had other options. His mid-pack draw should allow for him to drop back early on while trying to save some ground. If a hot pace ensues, he may be running on best as they enter the stretch.
(9) PLUS QUE PARFAIT 53-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
The highest money winner in the field following his victory in the Group II UAE Derby last out, this colt by POINT OF ENTRY will nonetheless be one of the bigger prices on the board this time around. He has run reasonably well over the Churchill Downs surface in the past, especially when there was considerable moisture in the track. That said, he would appear to need several others to falter if he is to make a serious impact on Saturday.
(10) CUTTING HUMOR 37-1 JOCKEY – COREY LANARIE
This $400,000.00 son of FIRST SAMURAI captured the Grade III Sunland Derby last out, by far the fastest of the 9 furlong prep races run this year. He loses the services of John Velazquez who opts to ride CODE OF HONOR but a solid journeyman in Lanarie inherits the mount. He is one of two who will be saddled by trainer Todd Pletcher as he seeks his 3rd Kentucky Derby win from dozens of overall entries! Already beaten by some who have signed on he would need to improve again in order to factor.
(11) HAIKAL 29-1 JOCKEY - RAJIV MARAGH
This Kentucky bred by DAAHER snapped a 3 race winning streak when he reported home 3rd in the Wood Memorial behind a couple of these. True to his style he put in a strong late run that day but could not overcome the soft fractions that had been established. Drawn mid-pack, he should drop back and try to save some ground and then hope for a pace meltdown to help facilitate his late kick. He should be passing tiring runners through the lane and deserves a look at least on the bottom of gimmicks!
(12) OMAHA BEACH 4-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
This WAR FRONT colt trained by Richard Mandella burned a lot of money enroute to finally breaking his maiden in his 5th lifetime start. Having won 3 straight since then including the Grade I Arkansas Derby last out, he is a deserving morning line and likely post time favorite. In a race where not long ago the betting choice almost never won, he will try to become the 7th straight public choice to win, which is unprecedented! Smith had his choice of this runner or ROADSTER and he lands here. Drawn outside the main speed signed on he should gain early position and fall into a stalking trip and he could prove to be the one to deny as they roll through the stretch. He seems a must use in all of the slots!
(13) CODE OF HONOR 14-1 JOCKEY - JOHN VELAZQUEZ
Trained by Shug McGaughey who conditioned ORB to victory in the 2013 Derby, this colt by NOBLE MISSION was well regarded early on graduating from a maiden victory in his debut at Saratoga into a solid 2nd place finish in the Grade I Champagne Stakes next out. He chased soft fractions in the Florida Derby and could manage but a 3rd place finish there but 2 back, he was a powerful winner of the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes when closing into a more honest pace. Johnny V. had other options but stays here and his final prep work at 4 furlongs on April 28th jumps off the page as a signal of readiness. Velazquez owns 2 prior Derby victories aboard ANIMAL KINGDOM in 2011 and ALWAYS DREAMING in 2017 from 20 previous mounts. It appears to me that he could get into the mix at a price!
(14) WIN WIN WIN 23-1 JOCKEY - JULIEN PIMENTAL
This Florida bred by HAT TRICK has significant Kentucky Derby success blood running through his veins with no less than 5 Derby winners showing up in his bloodlines. He was favored but could only manage 3rd in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby 2 back before settling for 2nd last out in the Blue Grass Stakes. Jose Ortiz rode him in both Stakes placings but his original rider and the one who was aboard for all 3 lifetime wins will get the mount back today as Ortiz opts to stay with TACITUS. It will be Pimental’s 1st Derby mount and if handled patiently, he may come running late to earn a minor placing.
(15) MASTER FENCER 43-1 JOCKEY - JULIEN LEPAROUX
This Japanese homebred owned by Katsumi Yoshizawa will load the gate as an invitee at least in part designed to expand interest in the Derby wagering market to Asia. 4 times 1st or 2nd in 6 lifetime starts, both victories came at 9 furlongs. Of note is that the more impressive of which came with some moisture in the track. The past performances provide few clues as to his style but with DEPUTY MINISTER as his maternal grandsire he would appear to at least be bred well enough for the stretchout.
(16) GAME WINNER 6-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
The 3 time Grade I winner and eventual Juvenile Champion of 2018 has finished 2nd in both 2019 races as the odds on favorite. He lost by a nostril to OMAHA BEACH 2 back in the Grade II Rebel before being collared late by ROADSTER in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby 4 weeks ago. 1 of 3 being saddled by multiple Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert, the hope is that the affinity the colt showed for the Churchill Downs surface when he won the BC Juvenile will appear once again on Saturday in this, his 3rd race back from a layoff. Rosario won the 2013 Derby aboard ORB and the strength of the connections will surely attract wagering attention. While drawn a bit wide I’d look for Rosario to try and settle a few lengths off the pace and try to employ a “stalk and pounce” type of tactic! He could take all with a good trip!
(17) ROADSTER 9-2 JOCKEY - FLORENT GEROUX
The Santa Anita Derby winner is the 3rd horse saddled by the aforementioned Bob Baffert and with Mike Smith opting to ride OMAHA BEACH Baffert has decided to give a leg up to Florent Geroux. Talented for sure with 3 wins in 4 lifetime starts, if one believes in bad luck this expensive QUALITY ROAD colt was mistreated at the post draw. Curiously, post position #17 is the lone post position to have not produced a Kentucky Derby winner in the previous 144 runnings of the race! I’m sure the connections are unfazed by that fact and if the horse runs his race he is one of several eligible to wear the roses!
(18) LONG RANGE TODDY 38-1 JOCKEY - JON COURT
When trainer Steve Asmussen gives Jon Court a leg up on this son of TAKE CHARGE INDY Court will become the all time oldest rider in the Derby at 58 years old! The winner of the Grade II Rebel Stakes 2 back failed to fire last out in the Arkansas Derby finishing a well beaten 6th. Others appear more likely for the money spots.
(19) SPINOFF 28-1 JOCKEY - MANNY FRANCO
This lightly raced son of HARD SPUN was caught late in the Louisiana Derby last out following a wide trip from the 10 hole. While he would need to take another step forward to contend on Saturday, he has improved his speed figures with each subsequent start and further improvement is not beyond the realm of possibility. By HARD SPUN out of a GONE WEST mare, he is one of the better bred horses to tackle the classic 1 ¼ mile distance on the 1st Saturday in May. Dismiss him at your own risk!
(20) COUNTRY HOUSE 45-1 JOCKEY - FLAVIEN PRAT
Plagued by wide draws in his last 3 Graded Stakes races this LOOKIN AT LUCKY offspring probably doesn’t feel very lucky as he draws widest once again! With but the maiden win on the resume he has been beaten by several of these and a mid-pack finish would appear to be his fate unless several others falter this time around.
(21 A.E.) BODEXPRESS 57-1 JOCKEY - CHRIS LANDEROUS
This maiden ran 2nd at huge odds last out in the paceless Florida Derby and will join this field only in the event of a scratch from the main body of the race by 9:00 A.M. Friday. Should he get in, you can expect another huge price as he faces much more accomplished runners.
SELECTIONS
1ST (#19) SPINOFF 28-1 JOCKEY - MANNY FRANCO
While I’m not a huge fan of the 6 week break between the final prep race and the Kentucky Derby I note that this colt has been patiently managed throughout his brief career. He has worked routinely and purposefully at Palm Beach Downs and while the jockey may have to invent a trip from the wide draw, I think the colt has a forward move coming up. Franco has proven to be an opportunist in New York especially when the bigger name riders fly South for the Winter. When John Velazquez opted to ride CODE OF HONOR another opportunity was presented to Mr. Franco and he may make the most of it! After I spotted SUPER SAVER on top in the 2010 Kentucky Derby I sought out jockey Calvin Borel and trainer Todd Pletcher at Saratoga to autograph my write-up. That winner snapped an “0 forever” streak that Todd was on and during our conversation we both agreed that “it would be great to do it again some day”. This may be that day!
2ND (#16) GAME WINNER 6-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
The reigning 2 year old champion deserves respect while making his 3rd start of the year. While he came up short at odds on in both Stakes races at 3, the trainer has a way of getting his runners to peak at the right time.
3RD (#12) OMAHA BEACH 4-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
2 for 2 over wet tracks, this speedy son of WAR FRONT won’t mind it if the current forecast for 100% rain on Saturday is accurate. He appears to strictly be the one to beat!
4TH (#5) IMPROBABLE 7-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
Yet another who would appreciate some moisture in the track, he had serious issues in the gate pre-race last out so he did well to finish 2nd to OMAHA BEACH. He could be right there with a good trip!
SAVERS - (#7) MAXIMUM SECURITY AND/OR (#8) TACITUS
The 2019 edition of LARRY’S PICKS for the KENTUCKY DERBY is quite likely the most anticipated write-up since the release of the Mueller report! For the last week I have toiled on the beach in Fort Lauderdale hoping to find the right clues to solving this puzzle and typical of most, this edition is surely a wide open affair. Consider for a moment that 11 of the 20 runners lining up this year have NEVER finished out of the trifecta in 55 individual races, evidence of a classy assemblage indeed. That said, the winner may not even come from that ultra consistent group! While in Fort Lauderdale I spent an afternoon at Gulfstream Park with the very personable Hall of Fame jockey, Walter Blum. What a pleasure and a truly memorable day for me! I am hopeful that we might see him again later this year at Saratoga. I hope Mr. Blum and everyone else enjoys this edition of LARRY’S PICKS and I hope that the time invested will help produce a profitable day for all!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 13 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general I would invite you to visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com! Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(1) WAR OF WILL 27-1 JOCKEY – TYLER GAFFALIONE
This speedy son of WAR FRONT snapped a 3 race winning streak when he had an eventful trip finishing 9th last out in the Louisiana Derby as the odds on favorite. When FERDINAND won as my top pick in 1986, he was the 1st to win from the rail in 23 years and it hasn’t happened since! It takes a patient ride on a horse that likes to do his best running late in order to prevail from the rail and Willie Shoemaker rewrote the textbook with his masterful handling of FERDINAND back in 1986. The inside post is not kind to speed types and I would expect this colt to show the effects of being hard used early on when the serious running begins!
(2) TAX 23-1 JOCKEY – JUNIOR ALVARADO
This son of ARCH won the Grade III Withers Stakes to begin his 3 year old campaign before finishing 2nd last out in the Grade II Wood Memorial. This is potentially another tough post position draw for a runner who wants to assume and maintain a stalking posture. He will need clever handling and a clean trip if he hopes to fill one of the top money spots.
(3) BY MY STANDARDS 26-1 JOCKEY – GABRIEL SAEZ
This colt was sired by GOLDENCENTS who was versatile while winning races at varying distances up to 9 furlongs but he struggled at 1 ¼ miles finishing 17th in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. BY MY STANDARDS upset the Grade II Louisiana Derby 6 weeks back and that race was one of the faster 9 furlong preps this year. Saez rode the ill-fated EIGHT BELLES to a gutsy 2nd place finish in the 2008 Derby, his lone other ride. Others appear better bred for the distance and a minor award may prove to be his fate.
(4) GRAY MAGICIAN 65-1 JOCKEY – DRAYDEN VAN DYKE
This colt has but his maiden victory from 8 lifetime starts but did finish 2nd in the rich Group II UAE Derby in Dubai last out. Joel Rosario rode him that day but opts for GAME WINNER in this event so Van Dyke will climb aboard the GRAYDAR colt for the very 1st time on Saturday. As wide open as this race appears, a victory by this “Magician” would be so shocking as to be rivaled only by the results seen daily on “The Maury Show”!
(5) IMPROBABLE 7-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
This $200,000.00 Keeneland purchase is a son of CITY ZIP and he was a Grade I winner on the West Coast as a 2 year old. 2nd to likely Derby favorite OMAHA BEACH last out in the Arkansas Derby, he hasn’t run a bad race to date and will likely attract considerable wagering attention with Ortiz back aboard. The 1 race experiment wearing the hood is over and the connections will look to gain a good stalking journey. With racing luck he could garner a share.
(6) VEKOMA 13-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
This lightly raced son of CANDY RIDE was an impressive winner of the Grade II Blue Grass Stakes last out and Castellano retains the mount for trainer George Weaver. The colt showed promise early on while capturing the Grade III Nashua Stakes as a 2 year old. While I would have preferred to see the colt work over the CD surface, these are strong connections who could land a share following a perfect trip!
(7) MAXIMUM SECURITY 7-1 JOCKEY – LUIS SAEZ
The lone undefeated colt in the field at 4 for 4 is this son of NEW YEAR’S DAY and he is trained by high percentage trainer, Jason Servis. His style is no secret and while I loved him last out when he went wire to wire in the paceless Grade I Florida Derby, he can expect some company on the engine today. Initially offered up in a $16,000.00 claimer, he has already become a “rags to riches” story that can only be built upon should he fare well here. In a scenario where “7’s are wild” I note that riding this #7 is Saez’s 7th Kentucky Derby mount to date and curiously, the best finish he has achieved to date is 7th! At a projected 7-1 odds, if he somehow shakes loose on the lead he could be in front for a very long ways!
(8) TACITUS 8-1 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
This late running son of potent sire TAPIT seeks his 4th straight victory following back to back Grade II wins in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial. Trained by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, he entices jockey Jose Ortiz who has been aloft in all 4 lifetime starts and elects to stay here when he had other options. His mid-pack draw should allow for him to drop back early on while trying to save some ground. If a hot pace ensues, he may be running on best as they enter the stretch.
(9) PLUS QUE PARFAIT 53-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
The highest money winner in the field following his victory in the Group II UAE Derby last out, this colt by POINT OF ENTRY will nonetheless be one of the bigger prices on the board this time around. He has run reasonably well over the Churchill Downs surface in the past, especially when there was considerable moisture in the track. That said, he would appear to need several others to falter if he is to make a serious impact on Saturday.
(10) CUTTING HUMOR 37-1 JOCKEY – COREY LANARIE
This $400,000.00 son of FIRST SAMURAI captured the Grade III Sunland Derby last out, by far the fastest of the 9 furlong prep races run this year. He loses the services of John Velazquez who opts to ride CODE OF HONOR but a solid journeyman in Lanarie inherits the mount. He is one of two who will be saddled by trainer Todd Pletcher as he seeks his 3rd Kentucky Derby win from dozens of overall entries! Already beaten by some who have signed on he would need to improve again in order to factor.
(11) HAIKAL 29-1 JOCKEY - RAJIV MARAGH
This Kentucky bred by DAAHER snapped a 3 race winning streak when he reported home 3rd in the Wood Memorial behind a couple of these. True to his style he put in a strong late run that day but could not overcome the soft fractions that had been established. Drawn mid-pack, he should drop back and try to save some ground and then hope for a pace meltdown to help facilitate his late kick. He should be passing tiring runners through the lane and deserves a look at least on the bottom of gimmicks!
(12) OMAHA BEACH 4-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
This WAR FRONT colt trained by Richard Mandella burned a lot of money enroute to finally breaking his maiden in his 5th lifetime start. Having won 3 straight since then including the Grade I Arkansas Derby last out, he is a deserving morning line and likely post time favorite. In a race where not long ago the betting choice almost never won, he will try to become the 7th straight public choice to win, which is unprecedented! Smith had his choice of this runner or ROADSTER and he lands here. Drawn outside the main speed signed on he should gain early position and fall into a stalking trip and he could prove to be the one to deny as they roll through the stretch. He seems a must use in all of the slots!
(13) CODE OF HONOR 14-1 JOCKEY - JOHN VELAZQUEZ
Trained by Shug McGaughey who conditioned ORB to victory in the 2013 Derby, this colt by NOBLE MISSION was well regarded early on graduating from a maiden victory in his debut at Saratoga into a solid 2nd place finish in the Grade I Champagne Stakes next out. He chased soft fractions in the Florida Derby and could manage but a 3rd place finish there but 2 back, he was a powerful winner of the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes when closing into a more honest pace. Johnny V. had other options but stays here and his final prep work at 4 furlongs on April 28th jumps off the page as a signal of readiness. Velazquez owns 2 prior Derby victories aboard ANIMAL KINGDOM in 2011 and ALWAYS DREAMING in 2017 from 20 previous mounts. It appears to me that he could get into the mix at a price!
(14) WIN WIN WIN 23-1 JOCKEY - JULIEN PIMENTAL
This Florida bred by HAT TRICK has significant Kentucky Derby success blood running through his veins with no less than 5 Derby winners showing up in his bloodlines. He was favored but could only manage 3rd in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby 2 back before settling for 2nd last out in the Blue Grass Stakes. Jose Ortiz rode him in both Stakes placings but his original rider and the one who was aboard for all 3 lifetime wins will get the mount back today as Ortiz opts to stay with TACITUS. It will be Pimental’s 1st Derby mount and if handled patiently, he may come running late to earn a minor placing.
(15) MASTER FENCER 43-1 JOCKEY - JULIEN LEPAROUX
This Japanese homebred owned by Katsumi Yoshizawa will load the gate as an invitee at least in part designed to expand interest in the Derby wagering market to Asia. 4 times 1st or 2nd in 6 lifetime starts, both victories came at 9 furlongs. Of note is that the more impressive of which came with some moisture in the track. The past performances provide few clues as to his style but with DEPUTY MINISTER as his maternal grandsire he would appear to at least be bred well enough for the stretchout.
(16) GAME WINNER 6-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
The 3 time Grade I winner and eventual Juvenile Champion of 2018 has finished 2nd in both 2019 races as the odds on favorite. He lost by a nostril to OMAHA BEACH 2 back in the Grade II Rebel before being collared late by ROADSTER in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby 4 weeks ago. 1 of 3 being saddled by multiple Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert, the hope is that the affinity the colt showed for the Churchill Downs surface when he won the BC Juvenile will appear once again on Saturday in this, his 3rd race back from a layoff. Rosario won the 2013 Derby aboard ORB and the strength of the connections will surely attract wagering attention. While drawn a bit wide I’d look for Rosario to try and settle a few lengths off the pace and try to employ a “stalk and pounce” type of tactic! He could take all with a good trip!
(17) ROADSTER 9-2 JOCKEY - FLORENT GEROUX
The Santa Anita Derby winner is the 3rd horse saddled by the aforementioned Bob Baffert and with Mike Smith opting to ride OMAHA BEACH Baffert has decided to give a leg up to Florent Geroux. Talented for sure with 3 wins in 4 lifetime starts, if one believes in bad luck this expensive QUALITY ROAD colt was mistreated at the post draw. Curiously, post position #17 is the lone post position to have not produced a Kentucky Derby winner in the previous 144 runnings of the race! I’m sure the connections are unfazed by that fact and if the horse runs his race he is one of several eligible to wear the roses!
(18) LONG RANGE TODDY 38-1 JOCKEY - JON COURT
When trainer Steve Asmussen gives Jon Court a leg up on this son of TAKE CHARGE INDY Court will become the all time oldest rider in the Derby at 58 years old! The winner of the Grade II Rebel Stakes 2 back failed to fire last out in the Arkansas Derby finishing a well beaten 6th. Others appear more likely for the money spots.
(19) SPINOFF 28-1 JOCKEY - MANNY FRANCO
This lightly raced son of HARD SPUN was caught late in the Louisiana Derby last out following a wide trip from the 10 hole. While he would need to take another step forward to contend on Saturday, he has improved his speed figures with each subsequent start and further improvement is not beyond the realm of possibility. By HARD SPUN out of a GONE WEST mare, he is one of the better bred horses to tackle the classic 1 ¼ mile distance on the 1st Saturday in May. Dismiss him at your own risk!
(20) COUNTRY HOUSE 45-1 JOCKEY - FLAVIEN PRAT
Plagued by wide draws in his last 3 Graded Stakes races this LOOKIN AT LUCKY offspring probably doesn’t feel very lucky as he draws widest once again! With but the maiden win on the resume he has been beaten by several of these and a mid-pack finish would appear to be his fate unless several others falter this time around.
(21 A.E.) BODEXPRESS 57-1 JOCKEY - CHRIS LANDEROUS
This maiden ran 2nd at huge odds last out in the paceless Florida Derby and will join this field only in the event of a scratch from the main body of the race by 9:00 A.M. Friday. Should he get in, you can expect another huge price as he faces much more accomplished runners.
SELECTIONS
1ST (#19) SPINOFF 28-1 JOCKEY - MANNY FRANCO
While I’m not a huge fan of the 6 week break between the final prep race and the Kentucky Derby I note that this colt has been patiently managed throughout his brief career. He has worked routinely and purposefully at Palm Beach Downs and while the jockey may have to invent a trip from the wide draw, I think the colt has a forward move coming up. Franco has proven to be an opportunist in New York especially when the bigger name riders fly South for the Winter. When John Velazquez opted to ride CODE OF HONOR another opportunity was presented to Mr. Franco and he may make the most of it! After I spotted SUPER SAVER on top in the 2010 Kentucky Derby I sought out jockey Calvin Borel and trainer Todd Pletcher at Saratoga to autograph my write-up. That winner snapped an “0 forever” streak that Todd was on and during our conversation we both agreed that “it would be great to do it again some day”. This may be that day!
2ND (#16) GAME WINNER 6-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
The reigning 2 year old champion deserves respect while making his 3rd start of the year. While he came up short at odds on in both Stakes races at 3, the trainer has a way of getting his runners to peak at the right time.
3RD (#12) OMAHA BEACH 4-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
2 for 2 over wet tracks, this speedy son of WAR FRONT won’t mind it if the current forecast for 100% rain on Saturday is accurate. He appears to strictly be the one to beat!
4TH (#5) IMPROBABLE 7-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
Yet another who would appreciate some moisture in the track, he had serious issues in the gate pre-race last out so he did well to finish 2nd to OMAHA BEACH. He could be right there with a good trip!
SAVERS - (#7) MAXIMUM SECURITY AND/OR (#8) TACITUS
If spreading in exotics you will want to include one or both of these as potentially dangerous if given perfect pace scenarios.
LL
