Oaks Day first look

[spiderjohn]

Not in love with the first three races. Probably a good reason to show up a little late if the weather turns wrong and turf goes off.

race 2

What ever trainer Arnold decides...if #1 and #2 go I find a way to key both of them. Also using #6 MAGICAL since the switch to the Asmussen/Santana $$ machine! Expect the pair to drop a bomb or two this weekend.

race 3

#9 GOLDEN CURL looked like she could handle the next step in class...#3 LADY KATE seems well spotted. Like DWL's #8 ULTIMATE MO to crash the tri somewhere.

race 4

#5 WORLD TAX WAR??  6yo gelding with a 18month layoff makes sense...why else would he be entered after working regularly? If not, #3 I CAN DO ANYTHING or CB's #15 VALUE ENGINEERING if he draws in

race 5

Brutal....ALL button time somehow. Track condition matters a lot here imo. #4 DEL MAR MAY won her first race handily a month ago, looking like a future star imo. #2 PROUD EMMA makes sense for a well-meant trainer and numero uno rider. #1 TAKE CHARGE ANGEL comes off a strong effort. A/S combo will have #7 LYRICAL LADY trying to stretch, and Baffert gets another shot with #9 MOTHER MOTHER. Tell me how to bet this race! 4-9/1-2-4-7-9/all? 4-9/ALL/1-2-4-7-9?

race 6

If still on turf, it goes no deeper than #1 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD, with legitimate chances to the serious pedigree crush on #3 WINTER SUNSET and #5 CONCRETE ROSE. Maybe a 1-3-5/1-3-5/ALL tri? 1/3-5/ALL? ALL/1-3-5/1-3-5? 1-3-5/ALL/1-3-5?

1/ALL/3-5?

race 7

like eye's #1 McKINZIE at the distance, while wondering how ready #8 SEEKING THE SOUL might be. Calhoun's #10 SILVER DUST looks to be the only other live one.

race 8

Have to stay with #2 BLUE PRIZE as my play of the day. Scratched out of a slightly easier stakes @ Kee to go for big bucks here. A single on a couple of tix also. Chases #4 AWE EMMA and #9 SECRET SPICE early.Serious competition from #3 DIVINE MISS GREY and#8 GOLDEN REWARD hopefully better suited to a better surface where she has won prior.

race 9

break time and hopefully not too late in coming. Maybe using #5 KNIGHTS KEY and #7 SOLID WAGER(hopefully solid chalk) on top somehow. You tell me who goes underneath...

race 10

turf sprints.....never feel confident playing them. Still like #1 BOUND FOR NOWHERE, who is usually a fair price. #6 WORLD OF TROUBLE will be favored and formidable at the least. Ward again with the formerly good #8 UNDRAFTED as the wild card.

race 11 OAKS

Nice race--sets up well for a stalker/finisher as hopefully the big named burners continue to flame out. A fondness for the pedigree and running efforts of #3 LADY APPLE(A/S angle).#14 RESTLESS RIDER owes  me from her last effort, and should be running late. #12 STREET BAND seems in top form for top trainer with few runners this weekend. Might be a good idea to keep #4 BELLAFINA in the mix.

race 12

not excited about this race. Maybe keying #4 EQUIFOX to be better suited on a friendlier surface.#8 COSMIC CODE is obvious, while my sleeper ticket maker is #11 FREE COVER

race 13

nice finale--won't be around to watch it. Will be keying/playing #4 HALLAWALLA as part of my A/S strategy. #8 VOMBA has every reason to improve off the bench. #12 CLUB CAR is my hunch ticket-maker. ALL should factor somewhere under the top two choices.

ALL COULD CHANGE AND A LOT OF THE ABOVE PROBABLY WILL AS FRIDAY APPROACHES...

[gam]

Race 6 Newspaperofrecord sits in the same position as Rushing Fall last year. She was upset as the heavy favorite. Not sure there's one in here that can Deja Vu that.

Race 7 Interesting race, for sure. Tom's d'Etat may get the perfect trip behind Prime Attraction and Copper Bullet A very intriguing horse, has the fastest TG # in the field and has been working back to it before the PWC no-show. Hope he didn't like the surface. Will it be fast Friday? McKinzie may end up forced wide from the 1 hole, may be overbet on Baffert. Seeking the Soul may be prepping for the Foster next month, trying to get the Dubai stinker out of his system. Mott trying to channel Yoshida and Good Samaritan with Multiplier. Tough spot for that. Instilled Regard needs career best by far.

Race 8 many contenders. Can Blue Prize fire off that layoff? Thinking she should've gone in the Keeneland race not fully cranked. Tereza Z at the M/L is the overlooked horse with a big shot.

Race 10 World of Trouble's to lose unless Ward gets Bound For Nowhere back to his lifetime best, then it could look like the BC race in November.  Angaston and Chaos Theory at the M/L odds very usable in the 2/3 hole.  So often neglect to "think vertically" but this might be a good race to do so.  

The Oaks looks wide open to me. I like Restless Rider, Positive Spirit and Chocolate Kisses best.


May get sucked into the Single 6 with Newspaperofrecord and World Of Trouble as singles.  Thinking the Races 4-7 p4 might lure me in, too.  

[gam]

Having seen the PPs for Saturday, there are a few cross-entered both days. Have to see which way they go.

[spiderjohn]

Saturday card looks brutal late prior to the Derby.

like your races 4-7 p4 plan
I can see going in for $1pw 4-5-15/1-2-4-7-9/1-3-5/1-8-10

[gam]

Looking at this some more tonight, leaning somewhat hard to Break Even in the 5th. Looks like Cox mapped this out after the filly won her 2d race. Best TG in the race as well. It’s been obvious over the last few years that hometown boy Cox tries really hard to win over these 2 days. In the 7th seeing reasons to back Bourbon Resolution and Instilled Regard in addition to Tom’s d’Etat especially if the Keeneland turf race for IR was simply a prep for this.

Also noticed there’s a p5 starting in the 3d. Lots of options over these sequences, hoping to find the one matching what I see in the PPs.

[orioleboy]

George,
Do you have the TG for the Oaks? Would love to see it.
Thanks
Steve

[Dell]

This is a great thread... Thank you guys!

[orioleboy]

Obviously everything is weather dependent, but here’s my first take on The Oaks card. Assuming it to be wet and turf good.

5th - BREAK EVEN is top choice. Lyrical Lady, Queen of Beas and Mother Mother on horizontal tickets.

6th- obviously Newspaperofrecord looks unbeatable. It’s unfortunate because I have been following Winter Sunset and think she’s top notch. If News isn’t ready, you never know.

7th - MULTIPLIER - looking for him to upset McKinzie.

8th - SHE’S A JULIE - good enough to beat Midnight Bisou in the Alabama last year. Last Grade 3 win was impressive and she likes Churchill.

9th - HOME BASE - my longshot special. Throw out those last two. Can compete here on his best.

10th - UNDRAFTED - would have to be a fool not to play one of my alltime favorite horses. Loves Churchill turf and last shows he can handle soft turf. Does the old warrior have one more big race left? I’ll take 8/1 to find out.

11th - see my thread about POSITIVE SPIRIT. Taken to upset at overlayed odds. Can’t get Jaywalk off my mind though. Think the champ is ready to revert to form especially if it’s wet and if she’s north of 6/1, I’ll play her to win as well.

Good Luck
Steve

[gam]

Yes, Steve. Anything in particular you’re interested in? Fastest horse to date is Bellafina but she’s coming in off a new top and has “reacted” to new tops previously. Many look ready for new tops here, which is why I see it as wide open.

[orioleboy]

Thanks. How bad does Positive Spirit look? How fast were her 2 races at 1 1/8 miles? Don’t forget, none of the Oaks fillies have ever run that distance except her! And also, how good were Jaywalk’s numbers last year and can she get back there. I just have a feeling she’s ready to pop.
Steve

[gam]

Positive Spirit had a pretty fast fig at Aqu and may be working back to it. Jaywalk got fast quick at 2 and reeled off three similar numbers. She’s now arguably working back to that number. I would personally read both those horses as their trainers deliberately working up to a peak effort third off the layoff. Bellafina and Jaywalk were roughly equivalent last year but Bellafina has recorded faster figs this year and so far Jaywalk has not.

[hezethebest]

Taking a shot at singling RESTLESS RIDER but she will need to be expertly handled from the wide slot. Good luck to everybody.

LL

[spiderjohn]

Good start—very rough after but stated on course to seriously nail the 13th
Good picking by Steve and others
On to tomorrow!

Sorry no pictures
Maybe tomorrow

[gam]

Deja Vu after all. Newspaperofrecord fell just like Rushing Fall. Thinking tomorrow has some more surprises in store for us.