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Post by orioleboy on Apr 28, 2019 20:58:51 GMT -5
It’s not out yet but I just listened to a podcast with Peter Denk, who is Kerry’s partner. He obviously didn’t want to divulge alot, but the horse he chose to discuss was Tacitus. He is very high on him and said when the report comes out he’s an obvious top contender if not THE top pick. I’m glad to hear that as he’s in my top 3.
I’m excited to get the report when it comes out.
Steve
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Post by dblakers on Apr 29, 2019 3:44:59 GMT -5
I predict that Kerry will have multiple horses in his top picks. He hedges his bets all the time. For example His top pick was Dortmund, but he alos had American Pharoah. He also had Danza Moon as a top pick, but included California Chrome. When he first started it was all about Herd Dynamics, but in my opinion it has gotten more into trying to Handicap the race. OF course just my opinion.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 29, 2019 8:29:20 GMT -5
dblakers- your point is wet taken. I have gotten the report the last 4 years I think? It's a bit pricy and he tends to equivocate a bit-but it's unique in terms of the approach and it sometimes explains important things- e.g. why does a horse seem to be a "hanger."
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Post by orioleboy on Apr 29, 2019 9:47:54 GMT -5
I don’t think it has turned into just Kerry handicapping the race. Yes he uses all of his observations to come up with who he thinks has the physical attributes and will like the distance and who has the mental attributes as well. I for one find it insightful and useful. Considering the DRF is $11, the $25 is money well spent in my opinion.
Steve
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Post by frangooch on Apr 29, 2019 10:35:01 GMT -5
I think that vagrant posted a while back that Brisnet wanted him to turn it into a handicapping tool (e.g. with rankings). A marketing device to sell more.
That said, it makes sense that he would like Tacitus, after the way he fought through the rough trip last time.
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Post by spiderjohn on Apr 29, 2019 10:44:53 GMT -5
I prefer Bruno's work reports over anything. More bombs on that paper than in an ISIS shelter. BRIS ultimate pps + comments and Brunos report is all that I need |
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Post by dblakers on Apr 29, 2019 14:53:05 GMT -5
The report is a good read and I know lots of work goes into it. Just from a heard Dynamic side from a novice eye like myself. Shouldn't Maximum Security be top pick? I mean no other horse has sniffed his butt.
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Post by orioleboy on Apr 29, 2019 15:01:17 GMT -5
That’s the problem. You don’t know how he’ll react if he gets in a dogfight (horsefight?)!
Steve
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Post by dblakers on Apr 29, 2019 16:33:21 GMT -5
I agree from a handicapping point of view. From a herd dynamic point of view how can anyone including Kerry watch his videos and come away with anything other than WOW.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 30, 2019 10:29:38 GMT -5
It's $25 now? Used to be $20
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Post by damascus on Apr 30, 2019 21:19:19 GMT -5
i have followed the Thomas herding and used it with my own handicapping profitably. So while he may appear to hedge at times he really does put all of the necessary stuff in the writeups. His is not a black box type of evaluation so i have found it essential to reread the writeups over several times to get all of the essence.
My prediction in advance of his release is that both maximum security and Omaha Beach will be in the top spots and maybe tacitus closely thereafter. Omaha seems to have the obvious alpha impact upon both of the baffy twins whom he dispatched. The manner in which game winner surged up to OB and then could not get by seems to be the most obvious display of alpha horse bubble controlling the horses around him.
So i will be looking forward to the reviews and am figuring no matter what on wagering on these two plus Tacitus.
Good luck.
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Post by voooooodoDancer on May 2, 2019 17:49:12 GMT -5
there can only be one true herd boss in this race. Tacitus. not sure he's fast enough. maybe
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Post by orioleboy on May 2, 2019 20:44:14 GMT -5
Omaha Beach was Kerry’s top pick but now Tacitus is. Very strong profile. He was in my top 3 all along but he might get upgraded to the top spot over Roadster and Code of Honor. He’s definitely fast enough!!!
Steve
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Post by damascus on May 2, 2019 20:51:09 GMT -5
Steve, what did you think of the treatment of maximum security by Kerry? I was bummed to see him down at 8 spot but the more i read it the more it seemed like they just dont know what to make of him and have no easy reference horse to compare him to. My final understanding of what i think they are saying is he could be an Alpha if he handles pace pressure that he was not forced to deal with in Florida.......or am i just reading something into this writeup that was not there??
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Post by orioleboy on May 2, 2019 21:53:28 GMT -5
Damascus, you’re correct. From what they’re saying he should be rated higher than 8th. He seems like he could be a monster, but the big question mark is level of competition and the stretchout to 1 1/4 miles. I certainly can’t argue with anyone who likes him, especially if he’s 10/1, but I personally feel that this might be beyond his scope. Good luck.
Steve
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Post by dblakers on May 3, 2019 3:35:12 GMT -5
That is my whole point with Kerry and his report its strickly a handicapping thing instead of a heard dynamic thing. Back when he first started and he pick Animal Kingdom, it had nothing to do with his competitiion or what he accomplished etc.. But today somehow Maximun Security, the Florida Derby winner is questioned. The horse has been unchallenged, but some how Kerry finds a way to question that from a herd dynamic. Just my opinion, but I can find picks all over the place for free. I can find people opinions of the horses for free. Just go to youtube and type in Kentucky Derby 2019. I advice someone to spend their 25 dollars on something else. Of course just my opinion.
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Post by thunderbolt on May 3, 2019 5:17:38 GMT -5
This year is a great test for the report. If War of Will and By My Standards have strong showings, that will settle the argument for me.
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Post by damascus on May 3, 2019 16:21:44 GMT -5
You are right Thunder. I just cannot bring myself to buy into the War of will bandwagon after that last debacle. NO derby winner ever has finished 9th in last derby prep....... Heck if that rule of thumb falls to the wayside, you might as well bet on a horse called Mine That Bird and expect him to win the Derby. It will never happen.
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 5, 2019 23:19:28 GMT -5
After the fact, curious how this information played out?
Bruno de Julio nailed the Derby as was very very high on Max Secuirty and had Code of Honor 2nd. He tried a mental analysis as well and was high on Country House getting the distance as well but didn’t use him in his selections.
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Post by frangooch on May 6, 2019 14:36:49 GMT -5
Izzy, if he didn’t use CH, the he didn’t nail it!
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Post by frangooch on May 6, 2019 14:37:01 GMT -5
Ozzy
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2019 15:31:25 GMT -5
There are a whole slew of horses that entered to run in the three races so there may be some surprise entries in the Preakness ...so perhaps the call would be to watch the trainers who are thinking of entering that have been out of the news for a while...lol...and if a field of entries fall below the required entries there may well be cash supplemented horses entered for a full field...sure hope so...no triple winner this year..
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 7, 2019 7:11:35 GMT -5
Izzy, if he didn’t use CH, the he didn’t nail it! Gooch, poorly worded comment by me as while Bruno does make definitive wagering suggestions (unlike others). Meant to reflect his attempt at a mental analysis nailed it as he called out the horses best suited for 1 1/4. He had Maximum Security, Country House, and Tacitus as his best suited to handle it all and would not endorse By My Standards, Roadster, improbable, or Game Winner as true win candidates and all three took quite a bit of money. He was iffy on Code of Honor mentally but liked what he saw on track and used him 2nd under Maximum Security and Tacitus. He was all in on Maximum Security as he singled him in every wager. |
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 7, 2019 7:42:26 GMT -5
Izzy, if he didn’t use CH, the he didn’t nail it! Gooch, poorly worded comment by me as while Bruno does make definitive wagering suggestions (unlike others). Meant to reflect his attempt at a mental analysis nailed it as he called out the horses best suited for 1 1/4. He had Maximum Security, Country House, and Tacitus as his best suited to handle it all and would not endorse By My Standards, Roadster, improbable, or Game Winner as true win candidates and all three took quite a bit of money. He was iffy on Code of Honor mentally but liked what he saw on track and used him 2nd under Maximum Security and Tacitus. He was all in on Maximum Security as he singled him in every wager. I follow Bruno on twitter- that explains why he has been so negative on the dq. |
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Post by frangooch on May 7, 2019 13:36:16 GMT -5
Thanks, Oz. No worries.
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Post by ozzy on May 7, 2019 17:57:37 GMT -5
Shoes, his exact write up was "I'm all in" in regards to Maximum Security so yeah, he's been salty.
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