Oaks

[orioleboy]

Haven't seen much discussion on the Oaks, so I'll start one. I'm not crazy about Bellafina. Yes, she looks good on paper  but she has lost the only time she left California, which happened to be over the Churchill strip. At short odds, I'm looking to beat her.
If Dunbar Road gets in, she's me play. Chad Brown is high on the lightly raced filly.
Don't know what to make of Jaywalk. She obviously isn't the same horse she was as a two year old, but the third race off the layoff might be the charm. Don't know if she'll like the distance and there's plenty of speed to keep her busy on the front end, but if she gets away at over 6/1, I'll put some bucks on her nose.
The longshot I'm looking at is Positive Spirit. When she's good, she can be a threat. I didn't realize she is a sister of Always Dreaming, so the distance shouldn't be a problem. At 15/1, I'm playing her.
Steve

[shoes]

Apr 26, 2019 13:52:29 GMT -5 orioleboy said:

"Haven't seen much discussion on the Oaks, so I'll start one. I'm not crazy about Bellafina. Yes, she looks good on paper  but she has lost the only time she left California, which happened to be over the Churchill strip. At short odds, I'm looking to beat her.
If Dunbar Road gets in, she's me play. Chad Brown is high on the lightly raced filly.
Don't know what to make of Jaywalk. She obviously isn't the same horse she was as a two year old, but the third race off the layoff might be the charm. Don't know if she'll like the distance and there's plenty of speed to keep her busy on the front end, but if she gets away at over 6/1, I'll put some bucks on her nose.
The longshot I'm looking at is Positive Spirit. When she's good, she can be a threat. I didn't realize she is a sister of Always Dreaming, so the distance shouldn't be a problem. At 15/1, I'm playing her."
Steve


I think Dunbar Road could be second fav if she draws in, everyone seems to like her, myself included. I agree with you on Bellafina but there aren't any stand-out alternatives besides maybe Restless Rider who I like a lot (and may be the second choice whether or not Dunbar draws in), though I worry about her "herd dynamics"- I wish Kerry included the Oaks in his report. Serengeti Empress had a dynamite work last week but can she wire this field? A really good closer would seem to have an edge with the expected race shape, but who would that be? Chocolate Kisses an interesting bomb if I can toss the last. Has won on turf and dirt and I like those types at CD.

[1hooper]

She is a bleeder but if it is cool and overcast she will be on top at the quarter pole.
Hooper

[orioleboy]

Well I’m down to 2. I can’t get JAYWALK off my mind. I can’t believe she’s as bad as she’s been showing. Maybe she just didn’t progress as a 3 year old, but after getting burnt twice singling her in pick 3’s and 4’s, I’m coming back with her at 8/1. And if it’s wet, even better.
The other filly I’m looking at is POSITIVE SPIRIT. Total races at 1 1/8
miles shes run; two (a 1st and a 2nd). Total for the rest of the field; 0!!!
Nuff said. I’m salivating over 30/1. Don’t really like Bellafina, but for defensive purposes I’ll use her in boxes with these two.
Good Luck
Steve

[shoes]

I am focusing on the #2 Chocolate Kisses;

Race shape (lot of speed/pressers) helps her. In her last per Casse told Tyler to place her forwardly because of the Keeneland bias and that isn't her natural style. He will take back and save ground and make a late run.


And #3 Lady Apple.

Loved her fight and agility in the last at Oaklawn where she squeezed through on the rail

Both 20-1 ML.

This is also a play against Bellafina, deserved fav but she's been facing small fields, and not sure of the comp, and she had her worst race at CD.

I took a long look at Restless Rider, but concerned with how she hung in last 2 and think the 12 post is not great for her. She will need to work out a trip.

Serengeti Empress could wire the field, I think 13 is OK for her as she can clear with her speed or duck in 2nd or 3rd before the turn. Just not comfortable in counting on a wire to wire job with this field. May defensively play her over the 2 and 3. I also think both 2 and 3 would be OK on off going.

Hope Chad's horse Dunbar Road does not draw in as that could make me rethink everything.

[1hooper]

Looks like a good chance of scattered rain and 80% humidity on Friday. Doesn't help my Empress.
Hooper

[shoes]

Apr 29, 2019 17:06:43 GMT -5 1hooper said:

Looks like a good chance of scattered rain and 80% humidity on Friday. Doesn't help my Empress.
Hooper

Hoop- because of her bleeding history? She has not raced on an offtrack, but I normally think of Distorted Humor as a positive influence there.

[frangooch]

Kind of like Street Band at 15/1. Seems to be coming around at the right time for Larry Jones. Nice race in last, and some good works over the CD strip.

[shoes]

Apr 29, 2019 17:42:09 GMT -5 frangooch said:

Kind of like Street Band at 15/1. Seems to be coming around at the right time for Larry Jones. Nice race in last, and some good works over the CD strip.

Frank, I saw her jockey Sophie Doyle interviewed a couple of days ago- I guess I never realized she was English till I heard her. Went back and watched the replay of the Fairgrounds Oaks and I thought she gave her a great ride.

[eye123]

Tom Amoss discusses Serengeti Empress's bleeding problem and the Oaks.(22.10- 25.25 of tape)

stevebyk.com/broadcast/part-1-tom-amoss-kelly-rubley/

[1hooper]

shoes, just because of the combo of humidity and bleeding history.
There are many reasons for bleeding and many things we can do to reduce the incidence. Don't get me started on the overuse of ponies in this country because our jockeys are not able to warm up a horse properly. Watch how the jocks in other countries do it.
Distorted Humor is a small plus on wet tracks. 19 % win rate on wet vs 17% overall and 49% in the money on wet vs 44% overall. T-Graph stats.
Hooper

[CindyLouJazz]

I like 4 horses to possibly win. I am using Bellafina defensively in The Double with the Derby; I like Restless Rider, Street Band and Out for a Spin.

That's my 2 cents.

[thunderbolt]

Lots of front running in this race, it will be some tough early fractions, who can hang?

Eye123, thanks for the Amoss comments on Serengeti, he sounds like every trainer ever that was hoping for the best going into a big race with a horse facing issues, she is a toss for me.

Bellafina, I agree with Shoes, last 6 races she has won 5 but each race she won had 5 or less entries, the one with 10 entries she was 5th and that was at Churchill. With a stampede looking to be in front, don't see her winning

Horse for course is Restless Rider, like her style and record at Churchill. Jaywalk also, Bomb HFC is Liora.

Clunkers up for the tri can be Chocolate & Champagne.

Also like Lady Apple on the improve.

7,14
3,7,9,14
2,3,4,7,9,10,14

$30 for a $1 Tri

[ziggy]

Well at the moment I have to hope Point of Honor draws in. One 'clunker' doesn't deserve 20-1. Has late foot. Reminds me of Thunder Gulch, me sitting there saying the 11 shouldn't be 23-1 and emptying my pockets, wishing it had been a better day.