Top 3

[orioleboy]

First let me say that for someone who was bitching about this year's crop, I think this has turned into a pretty decent Derby. No superstars yet but some pretty good evenly matched horses. 

I know there's plenty of time and there are plenty of workouts left and post positions have to be drawn but who are your top 3 (or 4 or 5) as of now. Here's mine.

ROADSTER - no superstars yet but I think this colt can become one. Still feel he's Baffert's best. Smith choosing Omaha Beach doesn't bother me as jockeys are notoriously bad handicappers and I've seen plenty of them choose the wrong horse.

TACITUS - was on him early due to Mott and I love his breeding (loved his mom Close Hatches and nothing beats class in the dam). Has blossomed in his last two and should be primed for a big effort.

CODE OF HONOR - was also on him early due to the Shug factor. Anything he puts on the track is live in my mind. His last wasn't great but I have a sneaking suspicion Shug will have him ready come the first Saturday in May.

Will be looking at others to use in exotics including War of Will, who I feel is ready to bounce back.

Looking forward to responses.
Steve

[unusualpete]

Apr 22, 2019 21:56:13 GMT -5 orioleboy said:

First let me say that for someone who was bitching about this year's crop, I think this has turned into a pretty decent Derby. No superstars yet but some pretty good evenly matched horses. 

I know there's plenty of time and there are plenty of workouts left and post positions have to be drawn but who are your top 3 (or 4 or 5) as of now. Here's mine.

ROADSTER - no superstars yet but I think this colt can become one. Still feel he's Baffert's best. Smith choosing Omaha Beach doesn't bother me as jockeys are notoriously bad handicappers and I've seen plenty of them choose the wrong horse.

TACITUS - was on him early due to Mott and I love his breeding (loved his mom Close Hatches and nothing beats class in the dam). Has blossomed in his last two and should be primed for a big effort.

CODE OF HONOR - was also on him early due to the Shug factor. Anything he puts on the track is live in my mind. His last wasn't great but I have a sneaking suspicion Shug will have him ready come the first Saturday in May.

Will be looking at others to use in exotics including War of Will, who I feel is ready to bounce back.

Looking forward to responses.
Steve

Feels like you can poke holes in everybody this year, certainly not just these.  Does any of this worry you Steve?

Roadster the grinder.  Those types are few and far between.  Giacomo, Sea Hero. 

Tacitus unable to maintain a straight course thru the lane and lugging into his thumping.  

Code of Honor nothing FL Derby.  FOY, passed the eye test but several lengths slow.  Looks to find 3 1/2 to finish first.

[orioleboy]

Hey Pete. Thanks for the vote of confidence. I didn’t realize it was a beat the crap out of Steve’s picks thread! LOL. Seriously, there are holes in most of the field but someone’s gonna win. I still have much work to do, but right now this is where I’m out. By the way why do you consider Roadster a grinder? I think he has a decent turn of speed.
Who’s in your mix right now?
Steve

[Badactor]

"...beat the crap out of Steve’s picks thread!" - That is hilarious!

[unusualpete]

LOL!

Not the worlds greatest race watcher, but been working hard this year to get better at it. It's what I see. Roadster will try a gradual, wear em down run. A grinder is the opposite of Code of Honor. CoH: shifty, hyper athletic. He's the kind of guy feels like the Derby suits best of yer top 3.

Sometimes like to ask people to defend their picks, just once in a while.

FWIW, I'm on Tax.

[orioleboy]

Thanks Pete. I don’t mind trying to say why I like a horse. Alot of it is gut feeling and intangibles. I’ve been handicapping for almost 50 years and can say I don’t fit into any box. I’m not a trip handicapper nor any other type you can think off. I read the form, looking at many different things; from Beyers to surface record, to trainer/jockey records etc. etc. I read as much as I can get my hands on, such as DRF articles, the Paulick Report and anything else I can Google. In addition I just use my experience. It all goes into a big pot and out comes the winner!
I love posting my picks and am not afraid of posting losers. My record speaks for itself and in horse racing, like baseball if you’re right 30 per cent of the time, you’re considered a success!
Keep on posting your picks.
Steve

[pedalcar]

Vekoma, like the past performances for this guy, raced at 4 different tracks with success, 6f winner, 1 mile winner, 11/16 3rd 23/4 lengths out and 11/8 winner. Top jockey in big races on board. I believe his numbers in Blue Grass would have been bigger if he wasn’t up by 31/2 lengths in the stretch, most likely Castellano didn’t ask for anymore in the stretch

That’s a toss for everyone.

Ron

[bobtailnag]

Hay Pedal - asking for a an explanation -

"I believe his numbers in Blue Grass would have been bigger if he wasn’t up by 31/2 lengths in the stretch, most likely Castellano didn’t ask for anymore in the stretch

That’s a toss for everyone."

I read that as you opining that Castellano didn't ask for more because he didn't think the horse had more to give. That last line "That's a toss for everyone", to me "a toss" means you think the horse will loss. Did that mean something different than that?

[orioleboy]

I think he meant if he likes him, it’s a jinx, and nobody should bet him. Tongue planted firmly in cheek!
Steve

[bobtailnag]

Now it makes sense

[dblakers]

By My Standards - I like him. Ran the 2nd fastest Louisiana Derby ever. On same day ran 2 seconds faster then the olders that day. Been working lights out at Churchill since. I think lots of people are sleeping on this guy. IF one of the Bafferts would have worked 6F in 1:12 they would be the tallk of the town. 

War of Will - Liked him going into the Louisiana Derby. Now since I am getting a better price on him due to his flop I will play him. Like his style, don't think the distance should be a problem. Already won at Churchill. Won in the mud also in case. Been working good at Keeneland. 

Game Winner- Don't think he was cranked up for either race. 3rd of layoff. Won at Churchill and is battled tested. Bafferts best shot in my opinion. 

[shoes]

Omaha Beach, rewatched the preps today and was more impressed with his Ark Derby. He made an impressive move down the backside and then stayed on. Trust Mandella. Steve's point is well taken about jockeys not always choosing wisely, but Smith has sat on both Roadster and him and I felt like a tie would go to Baffert. He's beaten Game Winner and Improbable. I also see grinder with respect to Roadster. Key differences with Justify, the main one being that he's slower. I did like that he seemed fine sitting behind horses even though the SA field was small. Was Omaha aided by wet tracks in two of his wins? That is a a question mark I guess, though the long range forecast shows a pretty wet Derby week.

Tacitus. Juddmonte-Mott, made a big improvement in figs last out (103 bris) and since I like the horse he beat last out, I can't ignore him.

Tax- Pete has given me the confidence I needed with this one as discussed elsewhere. Foundation is solid with 3 straight 1 1/8 races, all with triple digit Bris figs. Still waiting for someone to discuss the trainer, as I Just don't know him well. I love his breeding which isn't enough to bet a horse but it is enough to make me feel better about it.

Outside the top 3, I have cooled a bit on my 2 early favs, Code of Honor and War of Will., though I have futures on both. As a long shot in addition to Tax, I'm taking a long look at the lightly raced Spin-off. Has Javier declared for Vekoma? If so a jockey is needed.

[tenfurlongs]

Tosses (will not be on any tickets):

Plus Que Parfait

Long Range Toddy

Cutting Humor

Country House

Gray Magician

Master Fencer

Dislike (talented, but flawed):

Vekoma- Has failed to run straight in the stretch twice, and uses far too much energy early in races to last 10 furlongs. Visually says "NO" to me. Should take some money in the pools.

Maximum Security- absolutely stole the Florida Derby (see early pace numbers, race shape) beating a maiden as they ran one-two all the way home. I hope he takes a ton of money. Looks like the Wests have their own rabbit for Game Winner.

Code of Honor- still hasn't run a race fast enough to win this. Would likely need a pace meltdown to hit the board. Will be overbet, too.

By My Standards- jumped up with a strong finish first off maiden win, but had a pretty easy inside tracking trip, and a hole opened for him at just the right time. Bounce candidate, has an overbet, wise-guy vibe.

War of Will: has to regroup and find many lengths after the LA Derby debacle. Wasn't beating much previously at FG.

Board crashers (if there's a hot pace):

Haikal- needs a hot pace up front, plain and simple. Jury is out on whether the Wood form will hold up. Taking the positive view.

Win Win Win- Steadied at a crucial point in Blue Grass, still closed well for place in a solid effort. Track-record win in Pasco at TAM was sensational. Trombetta trying to get a peak performance on Derby day, not convinced he'll love 10 furlongs but will be running at the end with a fast pace up front.

Prefer others (not the winner):

Roadster- perfect trip SA Derby winner ridden by Smith to half-length victory over stablemate Game Winner, who was 4-wide all the way round and ran a more complete race. Why then does Smith jump off such a promising Baffert horse? He must think Omaha Beach is the goods. Roadster will be overbet off this race and very unlikely to get that trip again. Geroux?

Improbable- Has never run a bad one. Irad takes over which is fine by me. Was never going to get past Omaha Beach, and failed against Long Range Toddy with no real excuse.

Spinoff- LA Derby revealed talent, had to go outside while the winner got through inside. Likely to be just off the pace, may fly below betting radar for many punters.

Like:

(1) Omaha Beach- making incremental improvements and beat two good Baffert horses in the process. Handles wet tracks should that be relevant. Hard to believe it took five starts to break maiden. Smith's choice to ride, will be forwardly placed with a good start.

(2) Tacitus- Put away Tax fairly easily after getting taken up badly TWICE in the run to the clubhouse turn of the Wood. Showed good energy and courage between horses outfinishing Win Win Win for the TB Derby victory. A Wood Memorial repeat puts him squarely in the picture.

(3) Game Winner- just missed against Omaha Beach in the Rebel, then ran wide throughout in the SA Derby and "succumbed" to stablemate. Well set up for best effort and should be forwardly placed given a good start and decent post position.

Tax- ran two complete races in Withers and Wood, though he sawed-off Tacitus entering the clubhouse turn and still lost to that one. Needs to be effective away from AQU. Taking a positive position.

TW

[orioleboy]

Very nice writeup tenfurlongs! I agree that your top three are the horses to beat. The only difference is that I like Roadster more than you. I truely believe he might have the most talent of these. Don’t forget he’s only raced 4 times and I think he has more upside than anyone else. Baffert said he could have used another race but he put him through a little tougher workout. I’m not one to argue with anything Baffert does come Triple Crown time. I also feel that you might be selling Code of Honor short, but time will tell. Don’t know if he’ll win but I think he cracks fhe super.
Still more fine tuning to be done.
Steve

[damascus]

Why like Maximum Security

Undefeated.

Ran well on fast and off tracks

has run very very fast

has that Servis magic

Won the Florida Derby-clicking of .24 quarters like they were going out of style

has rated and won

has run off like the wind and won

   

    is 10-1 on the Derby morning line and is clearly not respected in spite of the above.  Keep disrespecting him bettors.  He should have a ton left in the tank with such a light racing schedule.

[Dell]

I believe Bob Baffert
has just been messing with us...
Game Winner is the cream of this crop
and will be unleashed on Saturday.

I cannot seem to get a fix
on who runs second. Tacitus?

My strong impression is that
Haikal is going to run third.

Getting excited about this year's race!

[orioleboy]

Baffert is messing with us! Roadster is his best horse and will show it on Saturday. Lightly raced, he’s peaking at the right time.
Steve

[tc]

I only have a Top 1. It is Omaha.

The rest you will all have to figure out yourselves.

[5wide]

Apr 30, 2019 21:29:50 GMT -5 damascus said:

Why like Maximum Security

Undefeated.

Ran well on fast and off tracks

has run very very fast

has that Servis magic

Won the Florida Derby-clicking of .24 quarters like they were going out of style

has rated and won

has run off like the wind and won

   

    is 10-1 on the Derby morning line and is clearly not respected in spite of the above.  Keep disrespecting him bettors.  He should have a ton left in the tank with such a light racing schedule.

I'm with you on Max. I keep thinking of War Emblem's Derby win, when the other jocks let him go and he never came back to them.

[hezethebest]

SPINOFF in a shocker! Then a mix of GAME WINNER, OMAHA BEACH, IMPROBABLE and maybe 1 more. Selection page all that is left to write. Full analysis should be out by 3:00.

LL

[tc]

May 1, 2019 11:19:17 GMT -5 tc said:

I only have a Top 1. It is Omaha.

The rest you will all have to figure out yourselves.

Okay so I was no help at all...

[mysaladdays]

Apr 23, 2019 21:13:22 GMT -5 shoes said:

Tax- Pete has given me the confidence I needed with this one as discussed elsewhere. Foundation is solid with 3 straight 1 1/8 races, all with triple digit Bris figs. 

And those were his figs when he LOST! I like him, too.

[mysaladdays]

edit:  replaced scratched Haikal with Country House.


Right now CoH, Game Winner, and Tax are my top 3 --- looks like I will slot in some other horses I like in my tiered trifecta like WoW, W3, Improbable, Haikal Country House.     

Gray Magician and Tacitus run in 4th for my superfectas.

I have 3 "superstitious wagers" I have to play based on personal reasons, as w/p/s singles: Plus Que & Win Win Win
Been burned too many times on the AE horse so probably a small wager on bodexpress single too. Some other Bodes have burned me lately so...

Not written in stone.......yet.