Prep and Go

[unusualpete]

unusualpete's thought process.  Dunno if there's expectation for responses or not.  Post em if you got em.

History.  Style evolution that almost nobody will care about.  Indulge me.  Messed up the following winners going for gimmicks.  Street Sense, Smarty Jones, Super Saver, Monarchos.  But the style lesson was learned with more complete understanding the year my money went to top pick Afleet Alex while Giacomo was the value pick.   One horse win bettor who only & always goes for value now.  The derby record is bad in a vacuum.  There's a decent return though, because when right it was win bets with good mutuels played aggressively enough to matter.  There were conscious decisions to not introduce variance or go for a score.  Not a popular way to go, but personally it's the easiest way to win.  

Present day.  Like to find runners that fall within a belief system.  Can't speak for anyone else, but things outside it are difficult to understand and therefore don't win often enough.  Believe in prep and go.  Believe in plans that include wasted races.  Believe in asking for just a little improvement.  In both the Derby and Oaks the feeling is there's value plays that were short for their preps, but some of the time won't be for the big ones.  Neither wins all that often, just enough to be profitable.  On viewing, there's a preference for two kinds of short horses next out.  One, the kinds that work hard to get to the lead.  Two, the kinds that float to the lead with some ease.  The laborers you wanna see miss the board and lose 3-6 lengths.  The floaters you wanna see hit the board and lose a length or two.  Both of these are floaters who to these eyes were short.  Neither lost more than 1 1/2.  Neither needs to find very much to finish first.  Making these bets with eyes open, aware they're gonna lose most of the time.  What if they don't though?      

Oaks-Restless Ride

Derby-Tax

         

[quickcall]

I was built too low.

[shoes]

Very interesting Pete. As primarily a P3, P4, player I am more often in the eliminating losers. and looking for anywhere from as few as 2 to as many as 6 in the Derby in the 3rd or 4th leg of either the 2 day or same day P3 and the P4.

Street Sense resonates with me because he was one of my better win scores in the BC Juvenile, where he came in off a losing effort but made a strong middle move in his prior race. I was pre-disposed to like him the next year and when he lost in the blanket finish of the Blue Grass, I looked at that as a gift odds-wise. I too, was all in on Afleet Alex in his Derby.

I bet Restless Rider in the Ashland, and think she has a big chance again, and take your point but do you place any credence on a possible herd dynamics "seconditis" thing with her? I did really think she was going to go on by. The Oaks, as is usually the case seems loaded with front end types and Champagne Anyone who Bris shows as an S4, may have a new running style with the addition of blinkers in her last. If Chad Brown's lightly raced Dunbar Road were to get in she is of interest me as very possibly having a big upside.

Tax is very interesting to me as a potential big value. I confess that I don't have a good handle on Danny Gargan's tendencies as a trainer. Do you or can any of our East Coasters share their thoughts?

edit- looking at Tax' breeding: breeding is a little bit 'turfy' which I like at CD. Kris S and Danzig (Arch) on top. Giant’s Causeway, AP Indy, Seattle Slew, Graustark on the bottom
Northern Dancer top and bottom.

[unusualpete]

Street Sense resonates with me because he was one of my better win scores in the BC Juvenile, where he came in off a losing effort but made a strong middle move in his prior race. I was pre-disposed to like him the next year and when he lost in the blanket finish of the Blue Grass, I looked at that as a gift odds-wise. I too, was all in on Afleet Alex in his Derby.



I bet Restless Rider in the Ashland, and think she has a big chance again, and take your point but do you place any credence on a possible herd dynamics "seconditis" thing with her? I did really think she was going to go on by. The Oaks, as is usually the case seems loaded with front end types and Champagne Anyone who Bris shows as an S4, may have a new running style with the addition of blinkers in her last. If Chad Brown's lightly raced Dunbar Road were to get in she is of interest me as very possibly having a big upside.ert quote here

'Shoes thanks for the thought provoking reply.

Street Sense's BG to KYD is a good example of a short horse who floated to the BG lead and backed up just a bit.  Built value and when fit he crushed their souls.

Both Tax and Restless Rider last out were going along well enough and their riders seemed to think, 'I'm loaded.'  But they didn't see coming the most common thing that makes a short horse quit and both were recipients.  Physical contact, bumping.  But yes in Restless Rider's case she twice has lost to runners she had dead aim on who were both over 25-1, one over 50-1.  Ordinarily that prompts a toss instamatic.   But, her stakes debut contradicts the no guts notion loudly. She encountered a lot of trouble and won it going away.  Admittedly she's a tough read.     

Your post prompted some thinking about decisions.  So arbitrary.  Somewhat nuanced.  Decided Sueno was an easy pitch in the LAD because the runner he had dead aim on was 65-1.  Why then would Restless Rider not be pitched when twice she couldn't run down those she was supposed to?  Imo they were more excusable.  The first was her initial foray on off going.  The second was short and bumped.  Sueno had no bumping.  Sueno wasn't short.  Sueno altered course outside when he didn't have to and would've probably won had he maintained his line.  Discomfort finishing inside a 65-1 didn't sit well w me.  

Bear w me.  There is a point to the following ramble.  Remember talking w a uic member about a poker hand he played and didn't like his line of play.  He had a made, unbeatable hand and his opponent was betting big into him.  He had two more rounds of betting to go and he pushed him off by going all in, prompting a fold.  Could've stacked him.  It was a mistake.  Asked him, "In poker why do we bet?  Most commonly for value and to get folds.  Let him keep bluffing at it."  Anyway, in racing why do we bet?  Most commonly for value, to leverage or for action...I think.  Probably a lot more reasons for exotic players.