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Post by UpInClass on Apr 10, 2019 15:56:33 GMT -5
OAKLAWN PARK
Race 11 Arkansas Derby (Grade I) Purse $1,000,000. Three Year Olds. One And One Eighth Miles. 1 Improbable (KY) - Ortiz/Baffert 2 Six Shooter (KY) - Cohen/Holthus 3 Omaha Beach (KY) - Smith/Mandella 4 Tikhvin Flew (KY) - Baze/Asmussen 5 Laughing Fox (KY) - Santana/Asmussen 6 Gray Attempt (KY) - Elliott/Fires 7 Galilean (CA) - Prat/Hollendorfer 8 Country House (KY) - Rosario/Mott 9 One Flew South (KY) - Borel/O'Neill 10 Jersey Agenda (KY) - Vazquez/Asmussen 11 Long Range Toddy (KY) - Court/Asmussen www.equibase.com/static/entry/OP041319USA11-EQB.html
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Post by bobtailnag on Apr 10, 2019 20:56:00 GMT -5
I've been on Improbable all year so I'll stick with him but Omaha Beach is one scary pony. If he gets beat I'd love to see Mandella's horse wearing the roses.
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 10, 2019 21:07:52 GMT -5
TimS on track that day?
Hooper
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Post by tims70ar on Apr 10, 2019 22:32:59 GMT -5
Hooper,
I haven't been since early in the meet. Play a little with Oaklawn's ADW.
I will not be attending in person. Not sure who I will play, I'm a fan or Rick P and Fox Hill Farms so I lean towards Omaha Beach.
This year has been topsy-turvy. We need some dry weather to get our crops planted.
Thanks for asking,
Tim
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Post by Badactor on Apr 10, 2019 23:49:52 GMT -5
Omaha Beach, Gray Attempt, and Improbable
might just beat each other up early in this race, setting it up for a longshot to shock & surprise late. Big jockey change for runner with notoriously lazy starts. Joel Who? can get'em out of the gate and be close enough
to use his strength in the stretch to get up first at the wire. I'm a Lookin At Lucky fan & will be rooting for Country House.
Most probably, however, Improbable wins the Arkansas Derby.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 11, 2019 3:40:47 GMT -5
Hooper, I haven't been since early in the meet. Play a little with Oaklawn's ADW. I will not be attending in person. Not sure who I will play, I'm a fan or Rick P and Fox Hill Farms so I lean towards Omaha Beach. This year has been topsy-turvy. We need some dry weather to get our crops planted. Thanks for asking, Tim You aren't kidding about the rain. It's supposed to be just AWFUL weather for the ARK derby. It's been raining all winter.....I still go to the track at OP 3x a week but I've worn out my raincoat this year. Hope you get your crops in! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2019 6:19:46 GMT -5
1-3-8-11....seems likely...asmussen has four in this ...baffort will have a collection in the k d and may well win all three races with a different horse....lol..
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5wide
UpInClass Member
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Post by 5wide on Apr 11, 2019 8:05:06 GMT -5
Interesting move to put blinkers on Improbable. Trying to figure out what to make of it. Does he want the lead ? I would think they would want Omaha Beach to carve out the fraction, but maybe they want the lead ? Seems like this move sets up the race for Long Range Toddy.
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Post by frangooch on Apr 11, 2019 11:47:34 GMT -5
Thinking that Galilean will improve, as will Country House. Looking for Omaha to run BIG and take money away from Game Winner on Derby Day ;-)
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 11, 2019 22:04:25 GMT -5
This race is loaded with speed.....sets up nicely for....
improving numbers every race.....
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Post by orioleboy on Apr 12, 2019 20:54:12 GMT -5
I’m in trouble gooch. I like Country House and Galilean also. Improbable will be tough so I’ll box them.
Steve
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Post by Hooper on Apr 13, 2019 8:24:57 GMT -5
Rain,thunderstorms and a flash flood watch today in Hot Springs.
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Post by Who's a Mudder? on Apr 13, 2019 11:01:41 GMT -5
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Post by frangooch on Apr 13, 2019 11:26:17 GMT -5
Looks like you are jinked, Steve. I do like Omaha ahead of Improbable though, so that could be your hope. OB ran a big one in the slop at Santa Anita.
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Post by maumeeriverangler on Apr 13, 2019 13:15:51 GMT -5
Going with #6 Gray Attempt- wire to wire.
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Post by DoctorDisaster on Apr 13, 2019 17:44:54 GMT -5
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Post by phlierfreak on Apr 13, 2019 18:13:45 GMT -5
maybe he is just putting the blinkers on to help shield his eyes from the flying dirt
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 13, 2019 18:26:47 GMT -5
There's some good mudders in here. I think Improbable takes this, but putting $$ on six shooter to run a solid 3rd.
Also like country house and jersey agenda.
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 13, 2019 18:49:40 GMT -5
VERY HAPPY for Mandella and his horse.
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Post by Results on Apr 13, 2019 18:59:46 GMT -5
3
Omaha Beach - $5.40 $3.00 $2.80
1
Improbable ----------- $3.60 $3.00
8
Country House -------------- $4.20
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Post by bobtailnag on Apr 13, 2019 20:27:41 GMT -5
I wonder how much energy Improbable wasted, if any, with his shenanigan in the gate? He still ran a heck of a race.
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Post by replay on Apr 13, 2019 20:45:50 GMT -5
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Post by mattcoll on Apr 13, 2019 22:27:57 GMT -5
Improbable incredibly talented, but not ready mentally for the derby. Mike Smith toyed with him. Derby winners beat other derby horses to announce their talent. OB is tactical early, high cruising speed, multiple moves, can ship and win, finishes strong as distances stretch, and is generally nasty when challenged. Favorites win the derby w/ new points system. This one is the favorite.
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 15, 2019 21:06:20 GMT -5
Think we saw the real deal here....
...interesting Siegel take in Dec.......
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Post by unusualpete on Apr 15, 2019 21:42:12 GMT -5
You know how your first though is often your best? Immediately on completion of the Arkansas Derby told a buddy, "Omaha Beach seems a little better than the rest of the crop." Feel like he's gonna be the fav. Maybe it's that simple. Maybe there's no value to be had in the race for win bettors. What's the o/u on off odds? My guess 7/2.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 16, 2019 7:49:57 GMT -5
It's always interesting to me to speculate on whom will go favored and what those odds will be and how that might differ from the ML. If the current group makes the gate without any key defections, I think the fav will be more like 9-2, so I'll take the over. Think Omaha Beach, Roadster, and Game Winner will all be fairly close.
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 16, 2019 9:35:29 GMT -5
I think a number here will take money. Tacitus,Roadster,Game Winner as will Omaha Beach and even Improbable. Some will say Game Winner lost ground against Omaha in the Rebel...others will point to Improbable acting up in the gate in the Ark Derby....others will say Omaha benefited by the off going. Some will say Roadster was the hype early on for Baffert and is now coming to form. Others might point to Jose staying with Tacitus and the number he got for the Wood. Then there is the b-tier of about five others who for one reason or another will draw money.
This year is looking like the fun version(of the derby) we came to expect.(where there are a number of directions to go)....My gut is saying Mandella has Omaha peaking at the right time, and depending on post draw and racing luck will be my horse here. As to what price I'd be willing to accept....7-2 is a little low. (think shoes 9-2, 5-1 this year is about right)
Here is an interesting video....
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 16, 2019 11:11:12 GMT -5
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Post by frangooch on Apr 16, 2019 11:11:55 GMT -5
What was the Beyer for the Ark Derby?
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Post by Hooper on Apr 16, 2019 11:51:10 GMT -5
101
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