Tampa Bay Downs- 2/9

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One of the two days every year that Tampa can argue that they have the best race card offered throughout the country. Weather forecast is "Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph." Fast and firm!

Race 4- MSW 7F 3yo f: Of the FTSs, #5- Zee Drop (5-1) is a RS Evans homebred with more of a turfy pedigree, but dam was 3rd in the Indiana Oaks going 8.5 on dirt. Clement can pop with a good firster, price will drop with Camacho on board. Mixed feelings. #6- Cool Mo (4-1) debuts for 16% first-out sire. Nations has done well with limited starters at the meet, is part-owner with main client Campanella. Working very well since November, this filly has the feel of a good horse that they've been waiting to run on a big day. Price could drift, don't ignore. From those fillies with previous race experience, only #11- Adventure Land (3-1) has shown good early zip. Widest post means Gallardo will have to cross over, find a forward spot. Trainer Hamm is rather cold this meet, this could end up being another ITM near-miss. Longshot play #2- Shedancesforfate (15-1) stretches out and goes turf-to-dirt after a belated finish in a quickly-run turf sprint where she broke slowly. Sire Two Step Salsa gets plenty of good dirt sprinters here at TBD. Could hit the board at a nice price.

EXA- 5,6/2,5,6,11 [Saver ATB- 2]

Race 5- OClm n1x 7F 4up: #2- Tabia (3-1) lightly raced Tapit gelding broke his maiden decisively going 6 panels here in December. Stretches out in next logical spot off a nice string of breezes, dam was a two-turn stakes winner on dirt. Trainer Wilkes is quietly having an excellent meet thus far. Gallardo aboard will suppress the price. #3- Tizk Tizk (5-1) brings early speed to the event, not sure that 7 furlongs is his best distance though. Could hang around for a share. Longshot play #4- Strategic Ekati (8-1) turnsback in distance after facing much better in last two outings. In for a tag today, should be running late and well-meant.

EXA- 2/3,4 [Saver ATB- 4]

Race 7- MSW 6 1/2F 3yo: #1- Tench (3-1) ran well above early pace pars (+5/+7) in debut, succumbing to a well-meant Clement shipper in deep stretch while finishing six lengths clear of 3rd. Hamm runs him back quickly after a nice half-mile breeze on Sunday. Gallardo is back for the sequel, outrun him to win. #2- World Affairs (6-1) is a head-scratcher from trainer Serpe, who doesn't do much with his FTS. This $260K son of Cairo Prince is a TC nominee, so they must think highly of him. Breezing very well at GP, Jose Ortiz takes the mount while in town. Not sure what to make of it all. The three outside horses #12- Blame the Makers (4-1) Boyce/Castanon, #13- Cobble Hill (9-2) Pletcher/Castellano, and #14- He Iz Gone (12-1) Scott/Camacho are the other logical contenders, but will have to be much the best to hit the board. Longshot play #11- Game Boy Benny (15-1) debuts for the Dini barn, and jockey Martinez is just as cold as the trainer this meet. The workouts are just too good to ignore, however. Could go north of 20-1.

WIN- 1 [Saver EXA 12/1,2,11,13,14]

More to follow...

TW

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Race 8- Tampa Bay S. (GIII) $150K 1 1/16mi T 4up: Shug McGaughey has done a great job managing #2- Inspector Lynley (5-1). Horse has amassed more than $500K with only four wins, including this race two years ago. Needs to make up two lengths on Qurbaan, and others. #3- Divisidero (4-1) needs no introduction, hasn't lost a step at age 7. Has kept the best company along with Heart to Heart, will be running late under Jevian Toledo. #4- Qurbaan (3-1) should appreciate the smaller field size here after his last two, could be forwardly placed under Bravo saving ground, might just need a clean trip to hold off the closers. #5- Irish Strait (6-1) wired the local prep for this, but these are much tougher opponents. Should sit an up-close trip behind Heart to Heart, but has no real stretch punch so a path to victory is unclear. #7- Heart to Heart (9-5) is a deserving ML favorite off of class lines only, the last three races look like a horse that is tailing off. If Irish Strait doesn't apply pace-pressure, Leparoux could steal it, but at low odds I'll look elsewhere.

EXA- 4/2,3 [Saver WP- 2]

Race 10- Endeavour S. (GIII) $150K 1 1/16mi T 4up f&m: #2- Get Explicit (9-2) looks to be an improving filly, last two were strong closing efforts in paceless affairs. #6- Hawksmoor (3-1) has been facing top company for three years, but always seems to get caught in the stretch by one or two better ones. Castellano should send hard and try to back down the pace on the backstretch. Trainer Delacour brings them back running off the layoff, and she ran huge to just miss in the Diana at SAR this summer. Chad Brown sends #8- Rymska (5-2) over from PMM. Athenia S. win shows she fits with this bunch. Had no shot from the 13-hole at DMR, still ran well. Will be horribly overbet in here, however. #9- Goodyearforroses (5-1) returns from a 15-month layoff with a new trainer, jockey. Complete crapshoot but siding against. Longshot play #7- Viva Vegas (12-1) matched up well against good ones at MTH this summer. Three career wins all at TAM. Last was clearly a prep in a slow-paced race for new trainer Correas. Two recent works were exceptional. Should sit just off the pace and get a jump on the closers. Big chance at a nice price! 

EXA- 6/2,7,8 [Saver ATB- 7]

More to follow...

TW

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Race 11- Sam F. Davis S. (GIII) $200K 1 1/16mi 3yo: Pure pedigree play in this. #4- Cave Run (6-1), #6- Kentucky Wildcat (9-2), #7- Five Star General (4-1), and #8- So Alive (5-1) are all bred to excel at two turns. #3- Knicks Go (5-2) is working up a storm locally, but if he falters under pace pressure there could be some nice exacta pays to be had.

EXA- 6,8/4,6,7,8

Good luck with all your plays!

TW