AUS- Flemington- Melbourne Cup TONIGHT- LIVE

[tenfurlongs]

The race that stops a nation.



FLE R7 (11:00pm Oct. 4th EST)- 2m Lexus Melbourne Cup (Group 1 Handicap) (3yo+) (Turf)  24 runners
www.racingpost.com/racecards/297/flemington/2024-11-05/876243


TW

[tenfurlongs]

TW

[Badactor]

Love this race!

Looked at breeding of each runner
& found three I like...

#13 Onesmoothoperator (7-1)
Sire: Dialed In (USA) 
Dam: Sueno D'Oro (USA)
Dam's Sire: Medaglia d'Oro (USA)

#9 Absurde (8-1)
Sire: Fastnet Rock (AUS) 
Dam: Incroyable (USA)
Dam's Sire: Singspiel (IRE)

Badactor's Shot with a Shot...
#20 Mostly Cloudy
Sire: Harzand (IRE)
Dam: Clarinda (FR)
Dam's Sire: Montjeu (IRE)

[shoes]

What is post time in EST?

[UpInClass]

Tuesday 11/5 3:00 PM (AEDT) Australian Eastern Daylight Time
is equal to Monday 11/4 11:00 PM (EST) Eastern Standard Time.

www.freeconvert.com/time/aedt-to-est

[UpInClass]

ODDS & ENTRIES

[Badactor]

[Badactor]

TVG Selections

1st #2 Buckaroo (6-1)
Useful type. At the latest run 2nd of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 1 ½m,
slow going 1.3 len behind Duke De Sessa with 120lbs at $3.80. The race before that 2nd of 16 at this track
in the G1 Turnbull on October 5 over 1 ¼m, on a slow track, head behind Via Sistina carrying 128lbs at $6.50.
Racing very well in the right races, if he stays the trip he'll go awfully close.

2nd #1 Vauban (5-1)
Going well. Comes here off a 51day let-up. Most recently 2nd in a small field at Curragh in the G1 Irish St Leger
on September 15 over 1 ¾m, 2.25 len behind Kyprios carrying 137lbs at $9. Before that won by a nose at York G2
Lonsdale Cup August 23 over 2 ¹/16m defeating Al Nayyir carrying 131lbs at $6.50. Failed in this last year but
is going even better and can atone.

3rd #18 Interpretation (18-1)
Most recently 2nd of 13 at Geelong in the G3 Geel Cup on October 23 over 1 ½m,
2.25 len behind Onesmoothoperator carrying 119lbs at $21. Before that 6th of 13 at this track
in the G3 Bart Cummings on October 5 over 1/16m, on a slow track, 2.25 len behind Just Fine
carrying 119lbs at $61. Has been hitting the line strongly in key lead ups, ready to peak.

[tenfurlongs]

FWIW there's a 20-cent Pick-3 offered on races 6-8 with the Cup as the middle leg, might take a swing at that for a score.

Narrowed the Cup field to the following, pending a look at the turf course over the first six races:

Vauban (PP11) 7-1, Warp Speed (PP3) 34-1, Land Legend (PP18) 13-1, Absurde (PP7) 11-1, Okita Soushi (PP10) 23-1, Onesmoothoperator (PP12) 8-1, Sea King (PP1) 10-1, Saint George (PP9) 34-1.

Watching replays of the last five Cups to try and pick up some clues.




TW

[shoes]

Thanks Tom. Any idea what we might expect the going to be tonight? I see we have Ted Nugent riding the 18 horse, Interpretation. Do you think he can make the weight?

[tenfurlongs]

Going is listed as Good-to-firm.

Buick is the highweight on Vauban, and Nugent rides co-lowest weighted Interpretation, so it could be an excellent adventure for Bill and Ted  . Party on, dudes.





TW

 

[cherokeescot]

Attended the Call of the Card lunch on Monday where you can lock in your prices with the big Melbourne bookies. Ended up with a win bet on Buckaroo at 7.5 -1 and each way bets on Saint George at 26-1 and Valiant King at 151-1. Flying to the track by helicopter courtesy of the Victoria Racing Club in a couple of hours . Bright sunny day here with high of 77 degrees expected at race time.

[tenfurlongs]

Have a great time Bev! Pictures please, if you have the time. Buckaroo is the fastest, classiest entrant, just not convinced he really wants 16 furlongs.




TW

[5wide]

I threw a couple darts for a rooting interest

WarpSpeed and Sea King wp

5 horse ex box

Warp Speed , Sea King, Buckaroo , Vauban and Onesmoothoperator

Good luck all.

Looking forward to hearing about it Bev.

[tenfurlongs]

Starting with 40 cent Pick-3:  3,6,8/1,2,4,8,9,12,13,15,22/5,7,8,10  $43.20

Thinking Sea King to WIN, Warp Speed & Saint George W/P.

Sea King was a Sir Mark Prescott trainee before being sold to new ownership with this race in mind. Terrific breeding for this, Sea The Stars x Duke Of Marmalade mare. Improved his handicap mark this season (5yo) with two 12F wins, and a good sixth in the Ebor Handicap. Harry Eustace got him to run his best race yet last time in GIII Bendigo Cup, winning handily. Hollie Doyle rides from rail draw, needs to work out the trip but won't be 6-wide around there.




TW

[mysaladdays]

Melbourne Cup is R7 There are tons of really good races on the card though, since there are 10 races.

Don't think I'll have time to work thru the PPs in full but I have a few longshots I will watch in the post parade and see how they look

I'm purposely not going to even read one article about the race LOL

Been a VAuban fan for a year now, hope he does something.  Not sure about Absurde the hurdler yet. 


Kingston Rule holds the Melbourne Cup race record with a time of 3:16:3

www.pedigreequery.com/kingston+rule

[mysaladdays]

Had to consult 2 different sets of PPs. just to get the weight the horses have run in the past. Brisnet doing a bad job IMHO

23 Horse field, Horses I like best:

Vauban
Warp Speed
Land Legend
Zardozi
Okita Soushi
Kovalica

Big Longhots:
Manjoice
Fancy Man
Valiant King
The Map
Trust in You


Horses I have little interest in and I don't think their odds are true to their chances, or I don't like post position, etc.  so no play for w/p for me unless going deep exotics which I'm not doing
Just Fine
Circle of Fire
Onesmoothoperator
Interpretation
Buckaroo
Sea King

[1hooper]

Zardozi, 4yo mare by Kingman, prepped for this by running in a G1 at 8F on Saturday. Old school training.

[Badactor]

$0.20 Pick 3 ($6.40 ticket)
R6
5 Arran Bay
6 Earl Of Tyrone
8 Apulia
10 Cafe Millenium

R7
9 Absurde
13 Onesmoothoperator

R8
5 Extremely Hardys
7 Big Swinger
9 Komodo Dragon
13 Stage 'n' Screen
----------------------------------------------

R7
$1.00 Exacta Box ($2.00 ticket)
9 Absurde
13 Onesmoothoperator

----------------------------------------------

R7
$1.00 Win/Place/Show ($3.00 ticket)
20 Mostly Cloudy

--------------------------------------

R7
$0.20 Trifecta ($1.60 ticket)
1st
13 Onesmoothoperator

2nd
1 Vauban
2 Buckaroo
8 Land Legend
14 Zardozi
15 Sea King
18 Interpretation
20 Mostly Cloudy
22 Saint George

3rd
9 Absurde
--------------------------------------

GOOD LUCK TO ALL UPINCLASS PLAYERS!

[shoes]

Loved the all grey race in the 3rd.

In races 6-8, played a pick 3 of 3.6.8,10/ 1,2,4,8,9,15,16,22/ 4,5,8

Will wait till after the 6th to decide on any Cup bets, but will likely feature 1, 9, and 15. Vauban, Absurde and Sea King.

[tenfurlongs]

Our man in Melbourne sends along these images from on-site:




















TW for BH

[mysaladdays]

In Race 5 I like Newfoundland

[Badactor]

WONDERFUL PHOTOS!

[mysaladdays]

Nov 4, 2024 21:15:06 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

In Race 5 I like Newfoundland

Ran 2nd to a 79-1  

   

Winner: www.pedigreequery.com/garachico3

[eye123]

I like Interpretation. (closing to get up at the wire)

[mysaladdays]

Holy cow, that is some CROWDS there. 

If anyone can get me the attendance numbers in next few days, I would appreciate it.

[mysaladdays]

Gotta put a small wager on the filly. Just because. Everyone once in a while one wins this.

[mysaladdays]

one of my capping buddies for 20 years love More than Ready, so I emailed him and posted on our forum we are on together, I sure hope he bet the race.

I did okay on the Okita Soushi and Warp Speed.

Zardozi who ran the G1 on Saturday ran 4th...I did not play any exotics but I sure wouldn't have left that horse off my super if I had...glad 1Hooper pointed him out!

[UpInClass]

99-1 winner...  #11 Knight's Choice.
(Extreme Choice - Midnight Pearl by More Than Ready)

[shoes]

Good call on Warp Speed by several of you- ran really well. Would have been nice to catch Knight's choice.