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Post by UpInClass on Oct 2, 2024 12:56:31 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 25, 2024 7:52:39 GMT -5
Surprised that there is no chatter here about this race. City of Troy is a son of Justify trying dirt for the first time; Fierceness looks for a three-peat off a 70 day layoff; Forever Young returns from Japan seeking to avenge his rough-and-tumble Derby defeat; Highland Falls is a Godolphin-homebred son of Curlin x Round Pound looking to peak at the end of a most progressive season; Newgate tries to sneak in under the radar for Bob Baffert, does Frankie Dettori get the mount?; can Next adjust to the faster pace of a mile-and-a-quarter GI and still run his race?; will Sierra Leone finally capitalize on a strongly-run race and get there in time to upset his Coolmore stablemate?; has 7yo Ushba Tesoro improved enough from last year's 3+ length defeat in the Classic?
Opinions?
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 25, 2024 7:55:12 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 26, 2024 9:26:30 GMT -5
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Oct 27, 2024 9:04:55 GMT -5
Forever Young gets it done this time
No interference hopefully
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 28, 2024 8:02:52 GMT -5
Fun fact that I just realized: Not This Time (Giants Causeway) is the sire of Next, which regularly wins twelve furlong stakes races on dirt. He's out of an Awesome Again (AWD 7.4F) mare. Not This Time is also the sire of Cogburn, which ran 5.5F on turf in :59.80 when winning the Jaipur Stakes (GI) at Saratoga. He's out of a Saintly Look (AWD 7.1F) mare. I see that Cogburn does have Stravinsky on his female side, as the sire of his grand-dam. Stravinsky won the July Cup (GI, 6F turf) and Nunthorpe Stakes (GI, 5F turf) for Aidan O'Brien in 1999. www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/280727/cogburn-next-feature-not-this-times-versatility-in-bcTW |
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,651
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Post by 5wide on Oct 28, 2024 8:14:20 GMT -5
It's hard to play COT at the odds. I'm leaning towards Forever Young. He's battle tested and this has been their goal since the KD.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 28, 2024 14:16:40 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 29, 2024 1:43:07 GMT -5
Forever Young gets it done this time No interference hopefully I'm one of his biggest fans. I think Invasor held the record for longest layoff winning the Classic, it was 91 days. Last year, Derma Sotogake came into the Classic with a 182 day break and couldn't get the job done. This year, Forever Young also has 182 day layoff from racing IN THE U.S.A. but had a race in Japan in Oct. and never runs out of the money He looks like a million bucks out there. But may be overbet, similar to a horse like East Avenue, who also looks like a million bucks out there. Would not leave off my ticket of course. But didn't almost all the Classic winners also have a G1 win in the same year they won the Classic? Forever Young doesn't qualify on that 9 of the last 19 Classic winners prepped in the Whitney I think? That was the situation with White Abarrio did last year, despite he had 91 days off and a rather crappy work pattern. The 2nd and 3rd horses were longshots at about 26-1 and 17-1....with the 2nd favorite with Pratt riding Arabian Knight running 4th. Messed up a lot of exotics for people. |
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,387
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Post by shoes on Oct 29, 2024 7:08:29 GMT -5
I know Fierceness will not be a popular pick and have not personally decided yet, but he did draw well.
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,651
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Post by 5wide on Oct 29, 2024 8:13:32 GMT -5
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,387
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Post by shoes on Oct 29, 2024 12:09:16 GMT -5
Loved Forever Young's acceleration to the wire this morning in his short work. Worked inside of another horse (a 2 year old).
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Post by Badactor on Oct 29, 2024 13:15:50 GMT -5
Moore (COT) takes all the money... but I think my price play Rolls @ 15-1. Does anyone else like Arthur's Ride?  |
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Post by cindyloujazz on Oct 29, 2024 21:19:25 GMT -5
Yes, I do.
I hope you are feeling better, Dell. 🙏
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 30, 2024 8:32:00 GMT -5
Yes i do like Arthurs Ride. Would also love to see marathoner Next do well. He should be overseas rinning 2 mile Melbourne Cup, but seeing a marathoner type win would be great way to bring that tpye back into fashion. This classic is anyone's race. Ushba Tessoro has so much class. And if COT can live up to even 1/2 the hype surrounding him...
There really isnt a horse in here I dont like.
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 30, 2024 8:34:37 GMT -5
Loved Forever Young's acceleration to the wire this morning in his short work. Worked inside of another horse (a 2 year old). Was impressive. Horse is so well trained and push button in every way. Hard to achieve with a TB....he's more like an eager to please puppy. |
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,960
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Post by docd on Oct 30, 2024 8:55:30 GMT -5
Moore (COT) takes all the money... but I think my price play Rolls @ 15-1. Does anyone else like Arthur's Ride? I was going in as AR being my key horse.That was pre draw.I worry now with Next entered and the wide draw.I don't think Next will beat him but may be a problem early on in the race.Bill Mott has said AR doesn't"need the lead" but I don't think he takes a stalkers roll here.Junior will do what he has done in the past,send him.Mott has been a little cold(for him) lately and that is a concern.I love the Whitney/Classic angle that's a positive.He's had an extended vacation in America's vacation paradise.I just hope he's not too laid back  .I'm sure I will have him on some tickets. Exacta key box 12/1 2 3 9 GL |
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 30, 2024 16:47:50 GMT -5
I woke up today and decided that I am removing Forever Young, City of Troy, Fierceness, Sierra Leone from the WIN spot on my BC Classic ticket, i.e. they WILL NOT win the BC Classic. Just a hunch.
So now I gotta figure out the winner.....and maybe trifecta.
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Post by Badactor on Oct 30, 2024 17:22:55 GMT -5
I completely agree and here are the reasons why:
Forever Young - lesser of the Japanese runners.
City of Troy - wise guy turf horse is too slow.
Fierceness - 3yo past peak for the year.
Sierra Leone - friends don't let friends play money burners.
I could be... and very likely may be wrong, but if I am wrong,
my wrong will be spectacular in fashion. Arthur's Ride gate2wire.
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Post by oriolesteve on Oct 30, 2024 18:33:20 GMT -5
If Arthur’s Ride doesn’t wire the field, which I think he can, I like regally bred Highland Falls. Getting hot at the right time for the white hot Cox. Forever Young rounds out my top three.
Steve
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Post by vagrant on Oct 31, 2024 11:42:25 GMT -5
I agree 75% w/ Dell and mysaladdays. We part ways on Fierceness. I see no reason to think he's peaked out. TAP says he has filled out considerably since the Travers. We may not have seen his best yet.
Forever Young has presumably matured too -- but he has a lot of improving to do. He's never run very fast (though the same could be said last year of Derma Sotogake and he only lost the Classic by a length). Forever Young, however, is buried on the rail with several tons of quicker horse flesh looking to get over. How does he get out to make his run?
City of Troy offers a short price and more questions than answers. Bad combo.
Sierra Leone? See my post on closers going 10 f. at Del Mar.
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 31, 2024 11:43:55 GMT -5
I completely agree and here are the reasons why: Well that's great, I thought I'd take a lot of flak tossing those from my WIN spot. I just had specific reasons for deciding this for each of them, although it was painful to throw over my horse boyfriend, Forever Young and he deserves to win but I just can't put him there. Am also tossing Rebel's Romance and Wingspan from the turf. I don't like Dubawi sire for 12F, despite his progeny does win sometimes at that distance. I love the Billy Loughnane is riding, 1 race on Fri, 2 on Saturday, will have to be putting something on them. And finally, I went looking over both cards for one of my favorite sires, Flatter, and only found one, so I will have to put some singles on Ferocious. Nonni looks interesting for Baffert? |
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 31, 2024 11:57:15 GMT -5
Vagrant, was unable to find your post on closers at 10F....
At any rate, I had to eliminate Derma Sotogake from the win spot cuz he has that head cocking thing going on like Honor Marie had...that horse won a maiden at CDX and everyone just kept sticking to that idea it seems like for the entire prep season, even as time passed and horse wasn't really doing anything...I never used Honor Marie for anything, in any race, I just would look at that head cocking thing and it drove me crazy.
Now I noticed that Derma Sotogake has it as well.
Bring the BC back east maybe once belmont is redone. I can see why CA though......weather is a big issue for such a large event. You can depend on CA weather compared to what we might get this side of the Mississippi in November. .
As for City of Troy, it's become rather transparent that they want a sire like Justify for the American market, where we race on dirt, so they need him to participate in a high level dirt race. I can't see any other reason WHY to take a turf champion and run them on dirt. It's an "in the shed" decision.
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Post by quickcall on Oct 31, 2024 14:56:57 GMT -5
I watched yesterday's breakfast show and during the interview with Aiden O'Brien, they were planning on COT while he followed the horse in front of him. It looked to me like every time he got directly behind the horse, he would cock his head to the side. It looked like he was reacting to the dirt being in his face.
Just an observation.
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Post by oriolesteve on Oct 31, 2024 15:53:55 GMT -5
He’s a toss for me especially at low odds. I like Forever Young best of the 3 year olds but I like Arthur’s Ride and Highland Falls on top.
Steve
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,960
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Post by docd on Oct 31, 2024 16:02:25 GMT -5
I watched yesterday's breakfast show and during the interview with Aiden O'Brien, they were planning on COT while he followed the horse in front of him. It looked to me like every time he got directly behind the horse, he would cock his head to the side. It looked like he was reacting to the dirt being in his face. Just an observation.
I noticed that too quick.That little thing was enough for me to see.That is one of his boxes left unchecked.I have big questions about how he will handle it in the race. I won't have him in my exactas.
GL |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 31, 2024 16:42:53 GMT -5
I have decided to not wager on the Classic, or connect any horizontal bets to it. Don’t want to throw away money on a race I can’t decipher. Like vagrant said, you’re going to have several horses drawn outside that are going to want to go forward and cross over. I could easily see the inside three runners getting pinched back, or at least taken out of their game. Fierceness might actually have an ideal post to avoid the chaos. Also, if Newgate goes off at 10-1+ you could take some kind of flyer with him, blinkers-on and two bullets in tow. Dettori wins another Classic sixteen years later? Good luck.
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Oct 31, 2024 17:49:23 GMT -5
Crazy talk
Just think of the old song Turning Japanese ….
All Japan tri?
No Fierceness on my tickets…….
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,651
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Post by 5wide on Oct 31, 2024 18:23:09 GMT -5
How does Aiden do it? Interview after you interview, all asking the same questions. He has such poise,, patience , calmness and humility, it's amazing.
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Post by quickcall on Oct 31, 2024 18:54:33 GMT -5
I agree, Swide, he knows everything about each individual horse and able to discuss them at anytime without any notes!
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...
.I'm sure I will have him on some tickets.
