IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY- April 17th at Tampa
Apr 17, 2024 5:51:47 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Apr 17, 2024 5:51:47 GMT -5
Wednesday, April 17th
With 12 days remaining, the bankroll has the same amount in it today as it did on Opening Day. I’ve moved $10,000 from my “left pocket to my right pocket” as Charles Bukowski would say. Kevin, on the other hand, is solidly in the green and that’s the feel-good story of the meeting. His Pick Fours have provided entertainment that lasts all day long and made a profit for the cost of a six-pack and a bag of pretzels.
We aren’t done yet, but I want to end the meeting positively, so I may appear to be a bit more conservative on these remaining race days.
We recover the F3W sheet from the file cabinet today. You’ll recall that it identifies those trainers that have outperformed in the Final 3 Weeks of the meeting for the past 10 years.
1st – In the PE Ness is 14% Win with firsters on the dirt but he’s 0-5 here in Tampa. Overdue or not well-intended?
Rodriguez on the other hand is 25% Win in the PE with this type and 12 (2-1-2) here in Oldsmar. I’m not crazy about FTSs going from the chute. It’s kinda like going to your favorite supermarket in another neighborhood; familiar, but you don’t know where to look for anything.
Dini is 50% ITM with the TtoD + RtS is 54 tries but only 29% ITM with 2TSs.
Arriagada is 47 & 81 with Plain Distance Change types when they are favored (15 & 51 when not). Last went -3,-2.
Trifectas 4,6,8/4,6,8/2,3,4,6,8 (18 bets)
2nd – She’s So Bearrish (6) drew off versus Exagedora and Always Connected, but those two were beaten by that 1-31 mutt, 6YO, Morena Dancer on Sunday. I’m gonna look elsewhere…
What a Knockout (1) made the same Quirins as the 6 in last, Puckett is 14 (3-3-2) with his angle, Morales is in the top 5 pilots in Dirt Routes at 18% Win and is #1 for ITM with 59% in L2T. The 6YO mare worked 4 better than the bullet par last Friday. 57% of her ITM finishes have been right here in Oldsmar.
Simone and AM Rodriguez are both 50% Win and Place with their angles. Dr. No could be the life of the party or a wallflower. Ya never know.
$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/2,5
3rd – Ballybrit still looks for first win at the meeting after 42 tries while Dini is 26% Win with his own runners. What’s wrong with this picture? Mike is 20% Win with UCEs and Marquez is 16 (3-2-0) on the grass in the past few weeks. Is this the one?
Clement is 20 & 43 with this type with a +53% ROI.
Exacta Box 1,3,9
4th – We are in the midst of a generational changing of the guard here in Oldsmar. Mr. Bennett is 80 years old now and while he’s still competitive, his Win record has been slipping. Before the pandemic, he never had a meeting with less than 20+% Winners, since then he’s had two of four that were sub-20%.
The Young Turks have arrived and they aren’t satisfied with the crumbs either. Since the year before the Pandemic Era (PE) began, they now have 51% of the starters and 43% of the Winners among the Top 25 in the standings.
While we’re resting on the laurels of The Oldtimers, Gen Zer’s are asking “Who’s that dinosaur?” While they are attending the Taylor Swift Eras Tour, we are buying tickets for the Jimmy Buffett tribute band at Jack Willie’s. WTF?
Over the summer, I’ll be doing a deep dive into folks like D’Angelo, Avila, Simone, Moysey and Crichton. It’s time to wake up and smell the horseshit!
Anyway, in the old days, the Bennett, Baxter & Averill team would have been a lock in this race. Today, not so much…
Exacta Box 6,8,9
5th – Barbazon III is 10-22 ITM on the grass here in L2T and Party Dream (2) was par in last.
Sire Not This Time has 7 winners at the meeting including a marathon on the lawn (see FTS Waitlist).
In the PE, Ness is 2 for 7 Win with this type.
Bowersock and Guciardo are 3% and 6% respectively with Long Layoffs.
Trifecta Box 2,3,6,10
6th – The Claimers have an IV of 2.02 in these Optional Claimers/N2Ls in L3T but there isn’t an N2L in the bunch.
Wheelingndealing (4) has established her value and Spieth outperforms with 2OC + Class Change types (13% Win).
Bennett’s piece has been par in last 3.
Richards is 33% Win and Place with his angle.
Parlay ½ of any winnings from the Race 2 play into these wagers as follows:
50% to the Trifectas
25% to the Pick 4 and 25% to the Saver Pick 3s, otherwise, no further action today.
Trifectas All/4/2,3 (10 bets)
Pick 4 – 2,3,4/4,7,10/7/2,8 (18 bets)
7th – Saver Pick 3 - 5,8,9/7/2,8 (6 bets) and 5,8,9/1,5/2,8 (12 bets)
if alive after Leg 1 of the Pick 4
8th – Arriagada presents with a solid weakness. He’s only 2-18 or 11% Win with the L1-3 + 1OC in L5T.
Barboza Jr. may very well be the favorite on the dropdown today and if so, Victor is 50 & 75 in 12 tries with this angle. He’s also 35 & 75 with Dropdowns and 32 & 58 with 2Ss.
DDs 7/2,8 and Exactas 7/1,5
9th – Trifectas 2,8/3,6,7/2,8 (6 bets)
With 12 days remaining, the bankroll has the same amount in it today as it did on Opening Day. I’ve moved $10,000 from my “left pocket to my right pocket” as Charles Bukowski would say. Kevin, on the other hand, is solidly in the green and that’s the feel-good story of the meeting. His Pick Fours have provided entertainment that lasts all day long and made a profit for the cost of a six-pack and a bag of pretzels.
We aren’t done yet, but I want to end the meeting positively, so I may appear to be a bit more conservative on these remaining race days.
We recover the F3W sheet from the file cabinet today. You’ll recall that it identifies those trainers that have outperformed in the Final 3 Weeks of the meeting for the past 10 years.
1st – In the PE Ness is 14% Win with firsters on the dirt but he’s 0-5 here in Tampa. Overdue or not well-intended?
Rodriguez on the other hand is 25% Win in the PE with this type and 12 (2-1-2) here in Oldsmar. I’m not crazy about FTSs going from the chute. It’s kinda like going to your favorite supermarket in another neighborhood; familiar, but you don’t know where to look for anything.
Dini is 50% ITM with the TtoD + RtS is 54 tries but only 29% ITM with 2TSs.
Arriagada is 47 & 81 with Plain Distance Change types when they are favored (15 & 51 when not). Last went -3,-2.
Trifectas 4,6,8/4,6,8/2,3,4,6,8 (18 bets)
2nd – She’s So Bearrish (6) drew off versus Exagedora and Always Connected, but those two were beaten by that 1-31 mutt, 6YO, Morena Dancer on Sunday. I’m gonna look elsewhere…
What a Knockout (1) made the same Quirins as the 6 in last, Puckett is 14 (3-3-2) with his angle, Morales is in the top 5 pilots in Dirt Routes at 18% Win and is #1 for ITM with 59% in L2T. The 6YO mare worked 4 better than the bullet par last Friday. 57% of her ITM finishes have been right here in Oldsmar.
Simone and AM Rodriguez are both 50% Win and Place with their angles. Dr. No could be the life of the party or a wallflower. Ya never know.
$100 Weighted Exacta Key Box 1/2,5
3rd – Ballybrit still looks for first win at the meeting after 42 tries while Dini is 26% Win with his own runners. What’s wrong with this picture? Mike is 20% Win with UCEs and Marquez is 16 (3-2-0) on the grass in the past few weeks. Is this the one?
Clement is 20 & 43 with this type with a +53% ROI.
Exacta Box 1,3,9
4th – We are in the midst of a generational changing of the guard here in Oldsmar. Mr. Bennett is 80 years old now and while he’s still competitive, his Win record has been slipping. Before the pandemic, he never had a meeting with less than 20+% Winners, since then he’s had two of four that were sub-20%.
The Young Turks have arrived and they aren’t satisfied with the crumbs either. Since the year before the Pandemic Era (PE) began, they now have 51% of the starters and 43% of the Winners among the Top 25 in the standings.
While we’re resting on the laurels of The Oldtimers, Gen Zer’s are asking “Who’s that dinosaur?” While they are attending the Taylor Swift Eras Tour, we are buying tickets for the Jimmy Buffett tribute band at Jack Willie’s. WTF?
Over the summer, I’ll be doing a deep dive into folks like D’Angelo, Avila, Simone, Moysey and Crichton. It’s time to wake up and smell the horseshit!
Anyway, in the old days, the Bennett, Baxter & Averill team would have been a lock in this race. Today, not so much…
Exacta Box 6,8,9
5th – Barbazon III is 10-22 ITM on the grass here in L2T and Party Dream (2) was par in last.
Sire Not This Time has 7 winners at the meeting including a marathon on the lawn (see FTS Waitlist).
In the PE, Ness is 2 for 7 Win with this type.
Bowersock and Guciardo are 3% and 6% respectively with Long Layoffs.
Trifecta Box 2,3,6,10
6th – The Claimers have an IV of 2.02 in these Optional Claimers/N2Ls in L3T but there isn’t an N2L in the bunch.
Wheelingndealing (4) has established her value and Spieth outperforms with 2OC + Class Change types (13% Win).
Bennett’s piece has been par in last 3.
Richards is 33% Win and Place with his angle.
Parlay ½ of any winnings from the Race 2 play into these wagers as follows:
50% to the Trifectas
25% to the Pick 4 and 25% to the Saver Pick 3s, otherwise, no further action today.
Trifectas All/4/2,3 (10 bets)
Pick 4 – 2,3,4/4,7,10/7/2,8 (18 bets)
7th – Saver Pick 3 - 5,8,9/7/2,8 (6 bets) and 5,8,9/1,5/2,8 (12 bets)
if alive after Leg 1 of the Pick 4
8th – Arriagada presents with a solid weakness. He’s only 2-18 or 11% Win with the L1-3 + 1OC in L5T.
Barboza Jr. may very well be the favorite on the dropdown today and if so, Victor is 50 & 75 in 12 tries with this angle. He’s also 35 & 75 with Dropdowns and 32 & 58 with 2Ss.
DDs 7/2,8 and Exactas 7/1,5
9th – Trifectas 2,8/3,6,7/2,8 (6 bets)
