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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 15, 2024 8:05:52 GMT -5
The Craven meeting runs Tuesday to Thursday this week, with major preps for the European Classics on tap. The Craven Stakes is race 4 on Thursday, at 11:35am ET. One mile for 3yos on the straight Rowley Mile course, currently rated GOOD. NEW R4 (11:35am ET)- 1mi (Row) Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-18/863376TW |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 15, 2024 10:30:39 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 15, 2024 10:50:39 GMT -5
Fine writing and word imagery, I'm stoked! TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 15, 2024 11:28:51 GMT -5
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 15, 2024 12:08:57 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 16, 2024 11:45:59 GMT -5
Winner! Interview with Harry Charlton at the end. TW |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 16, 2024 15:46:22 GMT -5
TW, I was surprised the Godolphin runner went favored in that race.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 17, 2024 5:28:48 GMT -5
TW, I was surprised the Godolphin runner went favored in that race. Me too. I thought the form of Kikkuli's first race, over the Newmarket course as well, had worked out very well with the winner Zoum Zoum going on to win a Listed event in France to end his season. Still, he only beat the Godolphin runner-up by a neck yesterday, not a lot between them right now. It did look like it was a very educational experience for Kikkuli, Ryan Moore had to move him through tight quarters, correct him a few times, but there's definitely an engine under the hood. TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 17, 2024 6:31:06 GMT -5
Wednesday-NEW R1 (9:50am ET)- 6f (Row) Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-17/863372Not usually a good idea to bet the two topweights in a handicap, but they are topweighted for a reason. #1- Significantly (8-1) had a fine 2023 season in big $ handicaps, with a win and three seconds, winning the Ayr Gold Cup while progressing back to career best form at the end of the year. #2- Orazio (9-2) won this race last year, and it is very difficult to repeat in handicaps, as he is now 11lbs higher. Can't deny that he runs well fresh, however, and he already had a run, a fine third behind Montassib at Doncaster three weeks ago in the Listed Cammidge Trophy. Drops into an easier spot and gets reunited with William Buick. EX- 1,2/1,2,8,10,20 NEW R2 (10:25am ET)- 1m1f (Row) Feilden Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-17/8633713yo going nine furlongs, all with pedigrees to handle longer still, other than #8- Native American. I think #1- Ambiente Friendly (7-1) might turn out to be a gift at 7-1. Won his debut smartly at Leicester, then was third here over C&D behind Ancient Wisdom and Chief Little Rock in the GIII Autumn Stakes, both of which are near the top of the markets in Classic wagering. Ambiente Friendly is a front-runner, and seeing him adding blinkers today makes me wonder what they are trying to correct/enhance, but taking a positive view. #7- Narkez (9-5) arrives from France for Andre Fabre who might be the hottest trainer on the planet currently. Narkez already ran this season, a 6+ length demolition of overmatched rivals on heavy ground at Saint-Cloud. Trainer wanted to get him on better ground than the current slog in France, and the colt has entries in the French Guineas and Prix du Jockey Club (Derby). Watch out. WIN- 1 EX- 1,7/1,4,6,7,8,10 NEW R3 (11:00am ET)- 1m1f (Row) Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-17/863369
#4- Embesto (5-1) is a progressive 4yo for Roger Varian, DHd for a GIII win at Salisbury against older in August, then wasn't embarrassed when a close up fourth in GII Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp to cap his season. Taken to hit the ground running. At a big price, I'll take a flyer on the 4yo filly #6- Novus (15-1). Consistent sort progressed beautifully through the second half of last year, culminating in a GIII win going 10F here in October, which will negate her 3lb allowance today. A lot to ask to beat all of these veteran middle-distance runners, but expecting that she could end up north of 20-1. EX- 4,6/1,4,6,7,8 NEW R4 (11:35am ET)- 7f (Row) Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-17/8633703yo fillies with 1000 Guineas ambitions, with varying levels of experience (one start, ten starts.) #2- Dance Sequence (4-5) is a well thought of Godolphin filly by Dubawi, she won the GIII Oh So Sharp Stakes over C&D last fall to remain undefeated. Charlie Appleby sounded upbeat about his sophomores for 2024, so can't ignore this one. #7- Matrika (4-1) shows up here for Aidan O'Brien, Ryan Moore and the Ballydoyle bunch. She was brilliant at 6F winning two-of-three starts last season, just missing to Porta Fortuna in the Albany S. (GIII) at Royal Ascot, then winning a GII at the Curragh in July before going on the shelf. She should race forwardly and could prove tough to deny if she's fully fit off the layup. EX- 2,7/2,6,7,8,10 NEW R7 (1:20pm ET)- 1m2f (Row) Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-95)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-17/863373The Godolphin run may continue with #4 Stormy Waves (4-1), a Dubawi out of a Galileo mare which progressed smoothly through four starts last year, breaking his maiden when stretched to a mile here in September. 10F-12F or more figures to be his game, so this should bring forth more improvement. WIN- 4 (if >2-1) EX- 4/2,6,8,9 Good luck if you play, and you should! TW
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propro
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Post by propro on Apr 17, 2024 8:00:32 GMT -5
The winning rider of the first race just talked about tailwinds and how you want to be near the front like on Tuesday. Nobody made any serious progress from the back in the first.
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 17, 2024 10:09:39 GMT -5
Hey Tom , UK is now 5 hours ahead of us . I just missed watching the two big stakes races 😜
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Post by diablo313 on Apr 17, 2024 11:24:23 GMT -5
Hi Tom - saw your post and jumped in and played along, missed a couple of races - hit a couple of exactas but basically just broke even, but really enjoyed getting back at it - always enjoy your euro betting insights!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 17, 2024 12:35:49 GMT -5
Hey Tom , UK is now 5 hours ahead of us . I just missed watching the two big stakes races 😜 Oops, sorry about that, I should have looked at my PPs for the off times. Didn't make any difference for me, I put my wagers in around 7am and went to do other things. Wish I had got shutout though, I didn't get a sniff today. Ofer. TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 18, 2024 6:58:51 GMT -5
Less than stellar Wednesday for wagers, to say the least. After the wettest winter in 250 years in England, it has been difficult to train horses to proper fitness, and betting young 3yos which can change substantially (or not) from two to three makes for a real crapshoot. Onwards. Thursday- GOING: GOOD (Good to firm 7.5) (Mostly cloudy) NEW R1 (8:50am ET)- 6f (Row) Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-18/863379Spreading wide with these 3yo sprinters. #3- Blue Prince (12-1) should not be short of fitness after fourteen career starts, including four AW runs already this season. Needs to reproduce his AW form on the turf, but noting that one Ryan Moore has taken the mount. #5- Woodhay Wonder (12-1) filly had a fine freshman campaign, finishing third in GII over course and distance behind Persian Dreamer and Star Of Mystery, then winning two valuable Sales races also over C&D in August and October. Needs to be more professional at the starting stalls this season, if she looks hyper cancel your bets. EX- 3,5/3,5,8,9,11,13,16 Result: 5,17,1 The field split into two groups, with Woodhay Wonder ($20.00) taking charge at the front of the larger, far-side bunch, and she toughed it out all the way to the wire ahead of a hard-to-figure Charlie Hills runner (22-1) and an overlayed, progressive Hannon colt. Hannon runners should get extra looks as he has come out firing. Exacta was $231.40 for a buck. $1 Triple was $5456.30, ouch. NEW R2 (9:25am ET)- 1m (Row) Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 2) (3yo)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-18/863381Twelve unraced 3yos with pedigrees as milers, to go long, and longer. I think one of three will take this: #6- Gilded Water (10-1) from the Wm Haggas yard, bred by the late Queen Elizabeth II, and races in the Royal colours. He won't become a stallion (gelded), but he has the Galileo x Fastnet Rock cross that has been pretty potent, with the latter on top in this case. From a good female family, jockey & trainer are going well, and he's 9-1 with 18MTP. The bet for me. #8- Padesha (3-1) is co-favorite with Hoop's Juddmonte colt, Davis is going great guns this season and could have a nice one here. #10- Sanat (9-1) comes from the sharp Roger Varian outfit, was an expensive yearling and is bred to be a miler at best. WIN- 6 Result: 5,7,4 First Conquest ($8.00) just hung on by a desperate nose over Lead Artist, with Earl Of Rochester a fast closing third well clear of the rest. All three should have promising futures.
NEW R3 (10:00am ET)- 6f (Row) Abernant Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-18/863377#9- Shouldvebeenaring (3-1) improved markedly for Hannon last season, GI-placed. #10- Spycatcher (6-1) was similarly consistent last year, running well at the highest level. Casting a wide net underneath. EX- 9,10/1,2,3,4,7,9,10,12 Result: 13,4,10 I couldn't have found Washington Heights ($83.80) with both hands, a flashlight, and a bloodhound. NEW R4 (10:35am ET)- 1m (Row) Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-18/863376Godolphin runner is seen as the favorite, as Charlie has won three of the last five runnings, I believe. I really like #4- Eben Shaddad (4-1) which ran close to Alyanaabi twice, and was third to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst. All three career races over the course. Biggest worry is Andre Fabre's #1- Alcantor (7-2). WIN- 4 Result: 5,4,7 Like I said, give a second look at all of Richard Hannon's runners. I did, but couldn't convince myself that Haatem ($19.00) was more than a 6F-7F runner. Won easily, with Eben Shaddad running on well to be second well clear of the rest.NEW R7 (12:20pm ET)- 7f (Row) Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2024-04-18/863378TW |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 18, 2024 7:26:05 GMT -5
R2 13 first time starters.
Might try #7 Lead Artist for Juddmonte. Female family of the great broodmare Hasili, can't imagine you'd get anywhere near the 7-1 ML but playable down to 3-1.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Apr 18, 2024 7:47:29 GMT -5
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propro
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Post by propro on Apr 18, 2024 8:54:09 GMT -5
ITV interviewed Charlie Appleby before the race and he liked his gelding First Conquest, who managed a head bob over the Juddmonte colt Lead Artist after being caught right at the wire. Nice race, still all speed at Newmarket.
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