Wednesday, April 10th at Tampa
Apr 10, 2024 11:29:48 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Apr 10, 2024 11:29:48 GMT -5
1st – KOC is 20 & 50 with Shortenups, Gun Right (2) was close to par in last two and she has Iorio up (6 of last 20 Win).
Tiz A Beast (1) has had only one Dirt Sprint start over a FAST surface. He’s the fly in the ointment.
Dobber is 0-53 with his angle.
Yates killed my Early Pick Four Sunday with his first win a Non-Stakes race here in years (now 1-9 in L5T).
DD 2/4 and Saver Trifectas 1,3,5/2/1,3,5,7 (9 bets)
2nd – Both Sea Art and Pretty N’Awesome met our 3+3 condition in Ritabook’s (4) last (an OC16/N1X) so this is Dropdown for Rigatierri and he’s 29 & 71 with this type. Two back Rita went +10,-2 at 7F. Owner Monarch is 1-13 at the meeting and time is running out. Maldonado has been his “go to” at the meeting (21 & 64).
$50 Conditional Win 4 for > 7/5
DDs 4/7,8 and Saver Trifectas 1,3,5,6/4/1,3,5,6 (12 bets) to cover
3rd – Granitz is 18% Win with PTBs and has a 49% ITM three characteristic angle (2L9up + 2S + Shortenup. Switches to Camacho after better than par effort in last.
Ferraro has a 10% Win angle and his piece went +11,+3 in last. He sticks with Iorio (6 of last 20 Win).
Block has cut ties with Themischievousone (2) and Dixon is 0-12 with her angle.
Saver Exacta 10/7,8 to cover if alive in the DD
4th – Bennett has an IV of 0.59 with Non-shipping L1-3s when they are not the top choice.
It appears that the likely favorite will be the 2, as Potts is 56% Win in 1st 3 OC (but only 7 samples), is 20% Win when the BF and Baby (2) was close to par while Camacho stays in the irons. Reliable Bill Deaton was also close to par in this one’s Tampa debut and went better than that at GP in first at rock bottom.
None of these look all that bad. I’m going long…
$1 Pick 3 – All/2,4,6/7 (27 bets)($27)
5th – We tagged Dini’s Bramble Blaze (6) in last at 10-1 and Iorio was going well at the finish (just ran out of real estate). Ballybrit, Dini’s ATM remains winless after 37 tries. Mike has no angle here (but is 13% Win) and Iorio gets another shot at it today. PP6 is more overdue that a woman in her 10th month and it’s weakness has been inexplicable. The law of large numbers must be chomping at the bit…
Hamm has a UCE (22 & 55). The 2 was par in N2L win and he is 10% Win on the Rightback.
Saver Trifectas 3,4,9/2,6/2,3,4,6,9 (18 bets) to cover if alive to a nice P3
$1.50 Saver Pick 3 – 2,4,6/3/2,3,5,6 ($18)
6th – Dini’s Hopesanddreams (7) is the obvious choice after par effort in NGS in last. Mike is 21 & 56 with Dropdowns.
Bowersock is 1-52 when her partner is not riding, however Marquez has been up in all of Chief Lady’s starts. Exceptions, like shit, happens.
$1 Pick 4 - 7/2,3,5,6/All/4 (40 bets)($40)
7th – KOC presents with a powerful weakness, 1 for 70 with the Plain UC + FTT angle.
Conversely, Dini is 81% ITM if the favorite in this scenario. He was 24% Win with RBs recently and is also 56% ITM with No Changes.
McGoey is 29 & 66 with No Changes.
D’Angelo is 39% Win with his angle and is 50 & 70 if he happens to be the top choice. He goes from the 5.3% PP6. Overdue or cursed?
Bowersock is 29% win in 2nd or 3rd try off the claim, unfortunately I can’t breakout Dirt from Turf, but we do know that Rockin’ Ronnie has had better luck on the dirt than the grass (13% vs 10%), ergo, Bowersock must have a similar record.
By the numbers its: Trifecta Box 2,3,5,6
8th – KOC is 28 & 47 with FTSs in dirt sprints with a +35% ROI and already ,has 5 of 15 at the current meeting. She’s also 30 & 69 with UCEs. She has 14 wins with Gallardo up (3 on FTSs) and none with Centeno, hinting that the other (#6) with a 75% ITM angle may be the more well-intended in this race.
Saver DDs 1,2,4,5,6,7/9,12 if alive in the P4
9th – Here we have another weakness angle, Bennett is only 10% win in 120 tries when not the favorite under these conditions.
Klickitat (4) returns to 8F where he was par in last try for D’Angelo, 12-31 Win with this angle.
Trifectas 4/1,2,3,5,12/9 (10 bets)
Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 04/10/2024
Another whitewash on Sunday, however, the picks were closer
....not that that makes a difference, but it soothes the lost
confidence and swagger that losing 40 ducats can cause ...uh,
yeah, .. right ... now, I'm not bashing, because I think highly
of her riding skills, but Sunday's R 8 was yet another example
of the 7 pound weight differential ....2 excellent riders, one
with a ton more experience, and that pesky 7lbs cost me ....
errr, uh, anyone that had the fav 7 singled in their saver pic
3 ....so it goes
Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50
2) 1, 3, 5
3) 7, 8, 9
4) 1, 4
5) 4, 9, (5***)
$18.00 ($9.00)
Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50
6) 1, 3, 5, 6
7) 1, 2, 5
8) 1, 6, 8
9) 4 **
Tiz A Beast (1) has had only one Dirt Sprint start over a FAST surface. He’s the fly in the ointment.
Dobber is 0-53 with his angle.
Yates killed my Early Pick Four Sunday with his first win a Non-Stakes race here in years (now 1-9 in L5T).
DD 2/4 and Saver Trifectas 1,3,5/2/1,3,5,7 (9 bets)
2nd – Both Sea Art and Pretty N’Awesome met our 3+3 condition in Ritabook’s (4) last (an OC16/N1X) so this is Dropdown for Rigatierri and he’s 29 & 71 with this type. Two back Rita went +10,-2 at 7F. Owner Monarch is 1-13 at the meeting and time is running out. Maldonado has been his “go to” at the meeting (21 & 64).
$50 Conditional Win 4 for > 7/5
DDs 4/7,8 and Saver Trifectas 1,3,5,6/4/1,3,5,6 (12 bets) to cover
3rd – Granitz is 18% Win with PTBs and has a 49% ITM three characteristic angle (2L9up + 2S + Shortenup. Switches to Camacho after better than par effort in last.
Ferraro has a 10% Win angle and his piece went +11,+3 in last. He sticks with Iorio (6 of last 20 Win).
Block has cut ties with Themischievousone (2) and Dixon is 0-12 with her angle.
Saver Exacta 10/7,8 to cover if alive in the DD
4th – Bennett has an IV of 0.59 with Non-shipping L1-3s when they are not the top choice.
It appears that the likely favorite will be the 2, as Potts is 56% Win in 1st 3 OC (but only 7 samples), is 20% Win when the BF and Baby (2) was close to par while Camacho stays in the irons. Reliable Bill Deaton was also close to par in this one’s Tampa debut and went better than that at GP in first at rock bottom.
None of these look all that bad. I’m going long…
$1 Pick 3 – All/2,4,6/7 (27 bets)($27)
5th – We tagged Dini’s Bramble Blaze (6) in last at 10-1 and Iorio was going well at the finish (just ran out of real estate). Ballybrit, Dini’s ATM remains winless after 37 tries. Mike has no angle here (but is 13% Win) and Iorio gets another shot at it today. PP6 is more overdue that a woman in her 10th month and it’s weakness has been inexplicable. The law of large numbers must be chomping at the bit…
Hamm has a UCE (22 & 55). The 2 was par in N2L win and he is 10% Win on the Rightback.
Saver Trifectas 3,4,9/2,6/2,3,4,6,9 (18 bets) to cover if alive to a nice P3
$1.50 Saver Pick 3 – 2,4,6/3/2,3,5,6 ($18)
6th – Dini’s Hopesanddreams (7) is the obvious choice after par effort in NGS in last. Mike is 21 & 56 with Dropdowns.
Bowersock is 1-52 when her partner is not riding, however Marquez has been up in all of Chief Lady’s starts. Exceptions, like shit, happens.
$1 Pick 4 - 7/2,3,5,6/All/4 (40 bets)($40)
7th – KOC presents with a powerful weakness, 1 for 70 with the Plain UC + FTT angle.
Conversely, Dini is 81% ITM if the favorite in this scenario. He was 24% Win with RBs recently and is also 56% ITM with No Changes.
McGoey is 29 & 66 with No Changes.
D’Angelo is 39% Win with his angle and is 50 & 70 if he happens to be the top choice. He goes from the 5.3% PP6. Overdue or cursed?
Bowersock is 29% win in 2nd or 3rd try off the claim, unfortunately I can’t breakout Dirt from Turf, but we do know that Rockin’ Ronnie has had better luck on the dirt than the grass (13% vs 10%), ergo, Bowersock must have a similar record.
By the numbers its: Trifecta Box 2,3,5,6
8th – KOC is 28 & 47 with FTSs in dirt sprints with a +35% ROI and already ,has 5 of 15 at the current meeting. She’s also 30 & 69 with UCEs. She has 14 wins with Gallardo up (3 on FTSs) and none with Centeno, hinting that the other (#6) with a 75% ITM angle may be the more well-intended in this race.
Saver DDs 1,2,4,5,6,7/9,12 if alive in the P4
9th – Here we have another weakness angle, Bennett is only 10% win in 120 tries when not the favorite under these conditions.
Klickitat (4) returns to 8F where he was par in last try for D’Angelo, 12-31 Win with this angle.
Trifectas 4/1,2,3,5,12/9 (10 bets)
Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for 04/10/2024
Another whitewash on Sunday, however, the picks were closer
....not that that makes a difference, but it soothes the lost
confidence and swagger that losing 40 ducats can cause ...uh,
yeah, .. right ... now, I'm not bashing, because I think highly
of her riding skills, but Sunday's R 8 was yet another example
of the 7 pound weight differential ....2 excellent riders, one
with a ton more experience, and that pesky 7lbs cost me ....
errr, uh, anyone that had the fav 7 singled in their saver pic
3 ....so it goes
Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50
2) 1, 3, 5
3) 7, 8, 9
4) 1, 4
5) 4, 9, (5***)
$18.00 ($9.00)
Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50
6) 1, 3, 5, 6
7) 1, 2, 5
8) 1, 6, 8
9) 4 **
