IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY- Valentine's Day at Tampa
Feb 14, 2024 11:11:06 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Feb 14, 2024 11:11:06 GMT -5
Wednesday, Feb 14th
In my excitement over the mandatory P6 payout on Sunday, I overlooked a nice betting opportunity. I’ve been touting Tedston Holder for weeks now and he bombed at 28-1 in his 2nd start of the meeting. To make matters worse, I played what became the 8th race trifecta box in my P3 and P4 (2,3,4,7), a $70 return for $12 up in smoke. So it goes…
I LOVE UPINCLASS....Thanks for being here!!!
1st – Galvan is 13% With FTSs and 24% with 2TSs. It may not be love, but I’ll flirt with her.
Miss Unconcerned (5) is usually close to par and Arroyo 18 (5-2-1) on the dirt in L2W, sticks.
Pick 3 – 3,5/2,5,7/1,4,8 (18 bets)
2nd – Spirit of Power (3) is a lightly raced 5YO. They have been more than patient with her and her last two were par. Romero is 22 (5-4-1) with his angle but if the love affair is to continue, the relationship will have to move to the next level soon.
Ochoa is 44% ITM at 18.30-1 with Plain Shortenups and he is the SOLITARY profiled trainer here (IV 1.53). Again, it’s Arroyo in the saddle.
Orseno is 54% ITM with his angle and Iorio is 18 (3-0-4) on the dirt in L2W.
Trifecta Box 2,3,5,7
3rd – Delacour is 27 & 57 with StRs and Team Valor has an AEPS of $15K. Won with a 95-93. Today’s par is 97-95 but none of these has made it.
Ryan is 24% Win with L1-3s.
Dini 2.0, the “Miracles Happen” man has no angle here.
Dr. No and I have a love/hate relationship, but he has a habit of surprising when the price is right and Breen is overdue.
The wildcard here is Sueno Profundo (Profound Dream) from the Volver Al Futuro (Back to the Future) Stable and bred by Vacacion (Holiday) farm. D’angelo is usually well intended with Long Layoffs but 16 months and 5,000 miles is a lot of space between races.
Exacta Box 1,4,8 and Saver Trifecta Box 1,4,8,10
4th – Arriagada has a 45% Win angle here and when the favorite it rises to 88% Win. Sneaky Cheeky (7) was an APD at today’s distance in 22-23 and Maldonado is 19 (4-2-3) on the dirt in L2W and they are 47 & 87 when teamed up at the meeting. What’s love got to do with it?
Woods Hole (1) is also an APD at 7F but has never gotten closer than 8 beaten lengths at today’s or related distances on the dirt.
Bennett is 20 & 53 with StRs and Chrome (3) went +5,+4 in last.
If the favorite, then:
Win 7, Exacta 7/3 and Trifecta 7/6/3
5th – Granitz presents with contrasting angles. He’s 41% Win with the PTB + Dropdown angle, but only 12% Win with Non-shipping Layoffs.
Robertson is overdue. He’s 5% on the lawn at the meeting but he’s a 14% Turf trainer. Lapinski Union (2) went +5,-2 in last.
DDs 2,5/1,6
Trifectas 2,5/4,8/2,5 (4 bets) and Superfectas 2,5/7,9,10/2,5/4,8 (12 bets)
6th – Bowersock is 22 & 44 with UCEs and she’s 1-48 when Ronnie is not up. Maria is 21 & 48 with FBKs and jumps to 50 & 80 when favored. Allen Jr. historically is the very best rider in starts from the chute, with an IV of 1.2 for a decade and ya gotta love that!
Simone’s piece puts up big numbers and he is 10 & 55 with this type. He’s 28 & 56 in Oldsmar with FBKs and 48% ITM (14-29) with all FBKs in 23-24.
Trifectas 1,6/2,4/1,6 (4 bets) and Superfectas 1,6/5,6,7,8/1,6/2,4 (16 bets)
$1.50 Pick 4 – 1,6/4,6,8,9/8/3,6,7,8,9 (40 bets)($60)
7th – Brown is 36 & 76 with his angle, while D’angelo is 40% Win with his. Delacour is 82% ITM with 1st 3 Turf types and McGaughey is 3-4 Win with his angle.
Datt Stable and McGaughey had GIII winner Smokin’ T at 9F on the Turf last Fall at Churchill and Datt has a dozen six figure winners and Quality Road has 17% Winners here at Tampa.
Hamm has 8 FTT bombs and 2 FTS bombs recently. Could prove to be the fly in the ointment.
It’s only love, and that is all. Why should I feel the way I do? It’s only love and that is all, but it’s so hard loving you (plural)….
Trifecta Box 4,6,8,9/7/4,6,8,9 (12 bets)
$5 Pick 3
4,6,8,9/1,7,8/4 (12 bets) if alive after Leg 1 of the Pick 4 ($60)
8th – Cupid’s Dude (8) – RUFKM - dueled with Just Plain Ornery, who came back fast to win again with another par effort. Villalobos is off, Centeno is on.
Exacting is 13 (5-1-1) when the favorite on the FBK. Made par in two of last three and MJM is 19 (5-1-2) at the meeting.
World’s On High (1) was par in last two, Simone is 28 & 70 off the claim and he has a 27 & 54 angle.
They will LOVE Cupid’s Dude today, as well they probably should.
Exacta Key 8/1,7
9th – As much as the poetic inevitability of Love Rhapsody (2) is not lost on me, Ryan’s War Museum (4) will have a 54 & 77 angle if the favorite and appears to be the most likely candidate to have the *.
Mille Dreams (3) allegedly posted big numbers in last, but so did Cloudy Bay, and that one cost me a buck and a half on Sunday.
“All you need is love! Love is all you need, Love is all you need, love is all you need. She loves you yeah, yeah, yeah…..”
See Rs 6 & 7
Mr. Pick 4 at Tampa for Valentine's Day 02/14/2024
Another terrible day on Sunday left us 24 doubloons short
again, as the picks were all over Oldsmar ....it was definitely
a day for the smaller outfits, as they gobbled up the king's
ransom share of the purses .... very active day at the claim
box also ....today looks as though the usual suspects will
muscle their way to the spoils
Editor's note: Looks like me and Kevin are of the same mind today!
Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50
2) 2, 3
3) 1, 4, 10
4) 3, 6, 7
5) 5, 6
$18.00
Late Pic 4 (6-9) $0.50
6) 1, 6
7) 6, 8, 9
8) 1, 6, 7, 8
9) 3 **
$12.00
** = Best Bet
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