Opening Day at Tampa 2023
Nov 21, 2023 20:15:27 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Nov 21, 2023 20:15:27 GMT -5
Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023 - Opening Day
A prudent bettor will find his sea legs or risk being swallowed up by the storm.
1st – Dini 2.1 has shown tremendous improvement in recent years, and yet, his average win price has remained steady at $5.80-1 in L12T. Mike is 27 & 60 with StR + FTTs in L4T, has an IV of 1.00 with 2YO + Turf types and is 16 & 28 with 2TSs. He’s been bombing with 1st 3 Mdns and 1st 3 Ts too. Add to that, he’s a Value Leader for ITM with an IV of 3.74. It’s also noted that Dini won 18% with the runners he owned versus 14% when training for others in 2023.
Robertson wins his share and with an AEPS of $6K and that’s still big $$$ around here, where AEPS is $2800. He’s 18 & 54 with this angle at Delaware and 12 & 37 with FTTs.
Munoz as a 48% ITM record with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown.
Engler is 0-49 with 2YO + Turf and Padilla is 1-20 ITM with FTTs here. Pilot Fernando Jara has had 3 mounts since 2015.
DD 5,6/6 (if the 6 in R2 gets solid action in the DD pool)
2nd – Avila has a price sensitive piece here. JC is 23 & 64 when < 5-1 at the post. This runner will go at 3-1 unless it’s a dud.
Arriagada has no multiple angles, but Del shippers have an IV of 1.24 until Christmas and Batista is 24 & 60 when up for Juan in L4T.
Torres (24 & 48) bought R Love five weeks ago. Can Pablo turn things around in a month. Well, that would be something, wouldn’t it.
Cajun Breeze has sired almost 25% winners here at the Downs, but Bowersock is 0-27 in L2T when Rockin’ Ronnie is not in the irons. Also note that PID shippers had an of 0.73 last year and have been trending in the wrong direction.
Back in the day, I would have called this an Up In Class move for KOC, but I’ve been using the CC NOS (Class Change Not Otherwise Specified) designation for 5 years now, so what was once a part of the calculation of a 34% win angle for Kathy is now a goose egg (0-6) in L5T. Cognitive structures matter!
Exacta Key Box 6/1,4,7 if the key is < 5-1
3rd – McGoey has a 38 & 58 angle here with a Del shipper (IV 1.24) and a pilot who bombed in 3 of 4 ITM for Monica last season. They bombed again two back up north. Fifty-nine per cent of all of her wins are Non-layoff Distance Change types. They bombed again two back up north.
Village Preacher (10) had a bullet work at Crown’s Way and Lusk has an 18 & 29 angle. Can’t escape our radar.
We could be Ambushed (8) by Guciardo. She’s 40% ITM at 10-1 with PTBs and this one is coming back home.
Potts is 1-7 ITM with Non-layoff + OC, and 0-24 with Stretchouts.
Padilla is 0-39 with L4-8s.
$25 Place and Show 6 and $1.00 Trifectas 6/All/8,10 (16 bets)($16)
4th – Sacco has a 24 & 48 angle and gets Camacho with this sure to be favorite, but Ghostryder (2) ships from Aqu (IV 3.38 for the last decade) and Morey has a 24% win angle, while Negrete has something going with our #1 Bomb Maker in 22-23, Nestor Cascallares and Ferrer had an IV of 1.46 from the chute last year. RG Smith is respectable with Layoffs. KOC is on the cusp of a 44% Win angle (5 days over) but goes from PP12.
Win 4 (a favorite that will be short on value)
5th – In a lousy field of N1Ys, Fly Fly Away (7) has finished up close in 5 of last 10. Old man Bush has been lighting up the board with 8 of last 25 ITM with 3 Wins. Cahill had 16% bombs here last year.
$5 ATB 7
6th – Ness returns to the Downs after 7 years (and we haven’t forgotten that 100-day suspension in 2014). Seven years is a long time for a profile to sit on a shelf and a dog can learn some new tricks, but I’ll bet that Ness’s profile will look pretty much the same at the end of this meeting as it did before his long absence and if I’m right, we’ll have a leg up on the sharks for a change (and for at least a little while).
Jamie has three 30+% winning angles here but is only 16% Win with 2YOs on the Dirt.
Sacco has a 24 & 48 angle and appears to be the main contender after 2nd best effort in last in open company.
Mrs. Bennett is 75% ITM with all FTSs lifetime.
Exacta Key 9/2,4
Saver Trifectas 2,4/9/8,11 (4 bets) and 2,4/9/1,3,10 (6 bets)
7th – I’m not enchanted with Enchantment (2) but it isn’t hard to make excuses for this one. Owner MJM was 31% Win here last season. Look for Carrasco Jr.’s piece to improve today.
Dini 2.1 is 23 & 50 with UCEs. Delgado is 6 for 6 ITM with 3 Wins here with the Non-layoff Shipper + Favorite angle (if that happens).
Trifectas 2,5,9/1,8/2,5,9 (12 bets) (because Kevin says Dini’s horses don’t finish)
8th – As if the $16K Claimers and N1Xs didn’t already have an advantage on the N2Ls in these hybrid races, now they have doubled the purses making the competition that much tougher for the N2Ls. There were some N2L winners, but they were most often the favorites and no worse than the 3rd betting choice (and this is the cue to look for).
I’m trying to get behind something here, but it isn’t happening.
IMO, Mr. Bennett’s big dropdown looks for a savior. Gerry has a 34 & 61 angle here and goes to his top rider Ferrer (30 & 59 last year when up for Bennett). Razor sharp work at 3F recently. I’m not touching it.
This will be my take a flyer race of the day –
$1 Trifectas All/10/5 (8 bets)($8)
9th – Avila is 3 for 3 ITM with UCEs here with 2 wins. Sweeping Giant (8) comes out of an optional claimer in which 7 of the 8 runners were entered for $25K. As I said in R2, Avila’s runners’ luck is often price sensitive.
Exacta Key Box 8/2,3,10 if the 8 is < 5-1
A prudent bettor will find his sea legs or risk being swallowed up by the storm.
1st – Dini 2.1 has shown tremendous improvement in recent years, and yet, his average win price has remained steady at $5.80-1 in L12T. Mike is 27 & 60 with StR + FTTs in L4T, has an IV of 1.00 with 2YO + Turf types and is 16 & 28 with 2TSs. He’s been bombing with 1st 3 Mdns and 1st 3 Ts too. Add to that, he’s a Value Leader for ITM with an IV of 3.74. It’s also noted that Dini won 18% with the runners he owned versus 14% when training for others in 2023.
Robertson wins his share and with an AEPS of $6K and that’s still big $$$ around here, where AEPS is $2800. He’s 18 & 54 with this angle at Delaware and 12 & 37 with FTTs.
Munoz as a 48% ITM record with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown.
Engler is 0-49 with 2YO + Turf and Padilla is 1-20 ITM with FTTs here. Pilot Fernando Jara has had 3 mounts since 2015.
DD 5,6/6 (if the 6 in R2 gets solid action in the DD pool)
2nd – Avila has a price sensitive piece here. JC is 23 & 64 when < 5-1 at the post. This runner will go at 3-1 unless it’s a dud.
Arriagada has no multiple angles, but Del shippers have an IV of 1.24 until Christmas and Batista is 24 & 60 when up for Juan in L4T.
Torres (24 & 48) bought R Love five weeks ago. Can Pablo turn things around in a month. Well, that would be something, wouldn’t it.
Cajun Breeze has sired almost 25% winners here at the Downs, but Bowersock is 0-27 in L2T when Rockin’ Ronnie is not in the irons. Also note that PID shippers had an of 0.73 last year and have been trending in the wrong direction.
Back in the day, I would have called this an Up In Class move for KOC, but I’ve been using the CC NOS (Class Change Not Otherwise Specified) designation for 5 years now, so what was once a part of the calculation of a 34% win angle for Kathy is now a goose egg (0-6) in L5T. Cognitive structures matter!
Exacta Key Box 6/1,4,7 if the key is < 5-1
3rd – McGoey has a 38 & 58 angle here with a Del shipper (IV 1.24) and a pilot who bombed in 3 of 4 ITM for Monica last season. They bombed again two back up north. Fifty-nine per cent of all of her wins are Non-layoff Distance Change types. They bombed again two back up north.
Village Preacher (10) had a bullet work at Crown’s Way and Lusk has an 18 & 29 angle. Can’t escape our radar.
We could be Ambushed (8) by Guciardo. She’s 40% ITM at 10-1 with PTBs and this one is coming back home.
Potts is 1-7 ITM with Non-layoff + OC, and 0-24 with Stretchouts.
Padilla is 0-39 with L4-8s.
$25 Place and Show 6 and $1.00 Trifectas 6/All/8,10 (16 bets)($16)
4th – Sacco has a 24 & 48 angle and gets Camacho with this sure to be favorite, but Ghostryder (2) ships from Aqu (IV 3.38 for the last decade) and Morey has a 24% win angle, while Negrete has something going with our #1 Bomb Maker in 22-23, Nestor Cascallares and Ferrer had an IV of 1.46 from the chute last year. RG Smith is respectable with Layoffs. KOC is on the cusp of a 44% Win angle (5 days over) but goes from PP12.
Win 4 (a favorite that will be short on value)
5th – In a lousy field of N1Ys, Fly Fly Away (7) has finished up close in 5 of last 10. Old man Bush has been lighting up the board with 8 of last 25 ITM with 3 Wins. Cahill had 16% bombs here last year.
$5 ATB 7
6th – Ness returns to the Downs after 7 years (and we haven’t forgotten that 100-day suspension in 2014). Seven years is a long time for a profile to sit on a shelf and a dog can learn some new tricks, but I’ll bet that Ness’s profile will look pretty much the same at the end of this meeting as it did before his long absence and if I’m right, we’ll have a leg up on the sharks for a change (and for at least a little while).
Jamie has three 30+% winning angles here but is only 16% Win with 2YOs on the Dirt.
Sacco has a 24 & 48 angle and appears to be the main contender after 2nd best effort in last in open company.
Mrs. Bennett is 75% ITM with all FTSs lifetime.
Exacta Key 9/2,4
Saver Trifectas 2,4/9/8,11 (4 bets) and 2,4/9/1,3,10 (6 bets)
7th – I’m not enchanted with Enchantment (2) but it isn’t hard to make excuses for this one. Owner MJM was 31% Win here last season. Look for Carrasco Jr.’s piece to improve today.
Dini 2.1 is 23 & 50 with UCEs. Delgado is 6 for 6 ITM with 3 Wins here with the Non-layoff Shipper + Favorite angle (if that happens).
Trifectas 2,5,9/1,8/2,5,9 (12 bets) (because Kevin says Dini’s horses don’t finish)
8th – As if the $16K Claimers and N1Xs didn’t already have an advantage on the N2Ls in these hybrid races, now they have doubled the purses making the competition that much tougher for the N2Ls. There were some N2L winners, but they were most often the favorites and no worse than the 3rd betting choice (and this is the cue to look for).
I’m trying to get behind something here, but it isn’t happening.
IMO, Mr. Bennett’s big dropdown looks for a savior. Gerry has a 34 & 61 angle here and goes to his top rider Ferrer (30 & 59 last year when up for Bennett). Razor sharp work at 3F recently. I’m not touching it.
This will be my take a flyer race of the day –
$1 Trifectas All/10/5 (8 bets)($8)
9th – Avila is 3 for 3 ITM with UCEs here with 2 wins. Sweeping Giant (8) comes out of an optional claimer in which 7 of the 8 runners were entered for $25K. As I said in R2, Avila’s runners’ luck is often price sensitive.
Exacta Key Box 8/2,3,10 if the 8 is < 5-1
