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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 19, 2023 14:18:01 GMT -5
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docd
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Post by docd on Oct 19, 2023 14:35:41 GMT -5
I hope they don't scratch out too bad.Weather looks.......typical,rain.Bet the Micks. 
Put the Bat light on for ProPro 
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 19, 2023 15:00:44 GMT -5
No Bat light required.  Tom, let's call the John Forbes Memorial a "super bumper". IIRC, bumper races overseas are for real novice types. This is a legit stake, run under NSA rules. Condition of the course is going to have a lot to do with the success of the USA based runners. Waiting to see what happens tomorrow and Saturday. I'll have a pick or two here. The NYRA free equibase pps have had the FH races in the last few years. Link for pps is live! It's combined with the BAQ program. www.equibase.com/content/CustomPPs/NYRA/NyraBroadcast102123.pdf |
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 20, 2023 7:09:32 GMT -5
One addition to the wagering menu this year is fixed odds wagering. www.monmouthbets.com This is only available for wagering if you're physically located in New Jersey through the website or app or possibly live at Monmouth or the Meadowlands. I've never used this, but it's certainly worth a compare since it's likely the final odds through the tote are going to be fairly close to these. The only race currently showing odds is the Grand National. 2.00 (even money in decimal format) for Salvador Ziggy and 2.45 for Seddon. Scorpion's Revenge (14.00), Noah and the Ark (FTL) (26.00) and Merry Maker (18.00) are interesting longshots on the likely off going. Snap Decision is 4-1 in the morning line, yet 7.00 here. Gooey ground isn't going to help Snappy. |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 20, 2023 7:13:23 GMT -5
One addition to the wagering menu this year is fixed odds wagering. www.monmouthbets.com This is only available for wagering if you're physically located in New Jersey through the website or app or possibly live at Monmouth or the Meadowlands. I've never used this, but it's certainly worth a compare since it's likely the final odds through the tote are going to be fairly close to these. The only race currently showing odds is the Grand National. 2.00 (even money in decimal format) for Salvador Ziggy and 2.45 for Seddon. Scorpion's Revenge (14.00), Noah and the Ark (FTL) (26.00) and Merry Maker (18.00) are interesting longshots on the likely off going. Snap Decision is 4-1 in the morning line, yet 7.00 here. Gooey ground isn't going to help Snappy. What's your weather like this morning Peter? How much rain is expected? TW |
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 20, 2023 8:49:28 GMT -5
Rained hard for a while, but not that bad. Steve Byk (at the races, can listen online without a subscription and replays available) is onsite at FH and said the same. Rain is supposed to end by tomorrow morning and a chance of sun after that.
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docd
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Post by docd on Oct 20, 2023 17:03:46 GMT -5
FH1
8 Kyogo 4/1 ,gets FTL ,+ROI high% trainer
GL
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 20, 2023 18:03:55 GMT -5
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 20, 2023 22:35:40 GMT -5
One runner I just can't use is Our Boy Wes in the first. His trio of jump races went from good to okay to bad. Okay to bad was 10 days apart, now it's only 11 days since that bad race where he went to the front and nearly fell over the last 4 fences. He looked tired there to me and coming back in 10 days along with a flight to the US and a new trainer? Not sure what my play will be, but I'm interested in Kyogo, Clifton Down and Anzio more than the others. St John's is a nice runner, but a combination of his hurdle debut, off turf debut and a likely shorter price than I want for that combo is going to make him tough to add.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 10:57:36 GMT -5
The big disappointment for me when seeing the fixed odds is the 3rd race. While I figured Awakened would likely scratch with the off going, I never saw The Hero Next Door at 1.45 (2/5) early on. I've been waiting to play this one back since he fell at Percy Warner. Figured it would be here off the layoff since he wants off ground and you can't depend on that at Saratoga. They need to run this horse on the flat turf too. He crushed the field at Foxfield last week in a training flat and was going to be a big play for me today, but not at this price.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 21, 2023 12:14:30 GMT -5
Good job with Kyogo, same sire as Facteur Cheval at Ascot earlier.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 12:44:22 GMT -5
Happy to get 3-1 on Kyogo....but talk about tired!! He could barely lift his feet in the final quarter mile and Our Boy Wes couldn't go by. Going to be another day for the IRE, GB and FR breds. Calico crushed 'em in the second. Disappointed that Total Joy lost his rider while moving. Would have been a nice ticket for me.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 21, 2023 12:52:13 GMT -5
Played Total Joy sire angle.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 21, 2023 12:53:24 GMT -5
Tom's An Idiot...Episode 27
So I really liked #8- Kyogo (3-1) in the first. Saw that there was $0.50 triple wager available. "Why not 8/All/All ? Total cost $21. Hmmm, do I really want to put that kind of money into this race, with much better later on? I know, I'll throw out the two worst looking horses, that'll make it a ten dollar bet. Tossing the 4 & 5."
Triple 8,7,4 - $138.05
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 21, 2023 13:05:35 GMT -5
If #4- The Hero Next Door (2-1) doesn't fall in this, can he lose? Just goes right to the front and leads them on a merry chase. Looking like they all go off at 2-1 or 5-2. I think L'Imperator is by far the class of the field, but tactics will negate his superiority. Probably sitting this one out.
TW
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 13:13:45 GMT -5
At least I don't have to worry about a short win price. I put $9 into multi race bets. $4 834 pick 3 and a $5 double 34. Wish I had paid attention to the double will pays. I'd be on this for more. double is an astonishing 31.50 for $1 and the pick 3 is $61.50 for $1.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 13:15:59 GMT -5
Tom, I think Hero goes to the front and lulls them to sleep and sprints clear. Always holding my breath when the last fence comes up. I've won and lost at FH because of that fence.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 13:23:53 GMT -5
Abaan was super impressive. I didn't think he'd go by the Hero when they came up the hill. Great job by the Daltons to spoil my score.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 14:16:52 GMT -5
Say Goodbye.....crushed 'em even carrying 163lbs. I keyed 1/2,5,7....but didn't hit the superfecta button with the same runners. Trifecta 36.50 for $1, super an amazing $397 for $1. Ugh.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 14:40:34 GMT -5
5th is the most wide open race of the day. Nobody loves a soft course here more than Redecian and he's my pick. Boxing 3-4-5 here along with across on Redecian.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 21, 2023 14:46:26 GMT -5
Used Redicean and Fast Vision on top. Was against favored Gordon's Jet.
TW
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 14:48:26 GMT -5
I realize this is Gordon Elliott putting on a clinic today, but I really like Seddon in the Grand National. He jumped flawlessly when he won in March at the Cheltenham Festival and again in April at Punchestown. Missed some time and came back with a flat race and a hurdle at Galway where he just got tired late and was caught. Hoping John McConnell has him in top fitness for this and I think he'll be on or close to the pace and tough when he moves. Elliott's Salvador Ziggy is a formidable jumper, but I think Seddon is just a little better today.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 21, 2023 15:09:12 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 21, 2023 15:26:36 GMT -5
If I bet the flat race, and I probably will, I'll still be wearing the Team Valor hat.
TRI- 8/1,4,6/All
Also, thanks for the PPs link propro, most appreciated!
TW
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docd
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Post by docd on Oct 21, 2023 15:30:55 GMT -5
Nice price on Snap Decision.Gets Lasix back,good punchers chance here. Eased,ran out of gas. 
GL
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 21, 2023 15:41:13 GMT -5
Did The Mean Queen retire?
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 15:46:48 GMT -5
Doc, wish I had seen your post. I've been the leader of the Snap Decision fan club, but he can't run at all on soft turf. While Seddon didn't quite have it today when he got pressure, I saw three prices on the fixed odds market earlier in the day. Put a whole $1 on each of these three. Noah and The Ark at 50.00, Merry Maker was 20.00 and Scorpion's Revenge at 18.00. First, second and fourth with Seddon third. Needed to spread through the tote, but I certainly didn't. Happy with the $51 winning ticket though on the 17-1 shot that the tote paid. Edit...just looked at the closing price on the fixed odds for Noah....60.00!!!!! A $2 win ticket on the fixed at CP paid $122, he paid $37 through the Far Hills pools. Wow. |
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 15:54:28 GMT -5
Did The Mean Queen retire? As of now, no. Keri Brion was on At The Races yesterday with Steve Byk and her name came up. Keri said she's perfectly sound and they're hoping to bring her back next year. That's the plan at least for now...you never know how she's going to feel next year. |
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 16:07:20 GMT -5
I'm certainly trying to beat the favored Team Valor runner here. Agitare was so good here winning this race in his US debut last year. He loves it wet, has proven he can't jump fences and wants to do exactly this. I have a $5 fixed ticket at $13.00. He's 7/2 on the tote with 15 minutes to post. Who's Counting was excellent here last year in the 4yo jump race, so I know he's handling the surface as well. Cibolian is a ? ? ? on soft ground. King Tsunami was a closing third on yl at Pen after winning at 12f at Delaware. While I'm tossing Clubbing because of his awful run here last year, was it the ground or did he have something wrong? Scanno's going right to the front. While I don't know if he can handle the ground either, he's 28-1. McLovin. 8/5 right now. Has no speed and I have some question marks on his ability on the off ground.
6/1,2,4,7 and some boxes since the prices are right.
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propro
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Post by propro on Oct 21, 2023 16:23:28 GMT -5
I wasn't a believer, but McLovin dominated that final lap. Congrats to all that had him!
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.jpg)
Tom, let's call the John Forbes Memorial a "super bumper". IIRC, bumper races overseas are for real novice types. This is a legit stake, run under NSA rules. Condition of the course is going to have a lot to do with the success of the USA based runners. Waiting to see what happens tomorrow and Saturday. I'll have a pick or two here.
