LARRY'S PICKS for the BC on Friday, November 2nd, 2018! Oct 30, 2018 17:46:05 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Oct 30, 2018 17:46:05 GMT -5
Analysis of the “BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS”, racings’ $28,000,000.00 weekend! Expanded to 2 days in 2007, this edition of LARRY’S PICKS will analyze the Friday menu with 5 events contested at varying distances over both dirt and turf. The 5 Breeders’ Cup races at Churchill Downs today will begin with the 5th race.
With full, typically well balanced fields to decipher I can’t promise to uncover another score like the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 that I gave out in the 2016 BC Mile, but I can promise you that the time and effort has gone into the analysis to give us a fighting chance to make some money! To all those reading my analysis and playing the 2018 Breeders’ Cup, I wish you nothing but the best of luck!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous “old world” IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
5 FIFTH RACE (3:21 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade I)
5 ½ Furlongs on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(8) SERGEI PROKOFIEV overcame trouble to capture a Group III affair at Newmarket earning his best Timeform speed rating to date. The expensive son of SCAT DADDY wouldn’t mind the anticipated moisture we could get in the turf course and he should go well from a stalking posture. (2) SOLDIER’S CALL is a speedy son of SHOWCASING who is 4 for 6 at the short sprint distances. He just missed last out in a bulky 16 horse Group I field at Longchamp and he could be right there as they hit the wire. (5) BULLETIN won his debut in an ungraded stakes race at Gulfstream Park 5 weeks back and he has worked well since. The son of CITY ZIP could be ready to take on better. (1) STRIKE SILVER overcame trouble to win his first try on turf and may improve quickly. (10) SO PERFECT is also on the improve and deserves a look in a tough heat!
6 SIXTH RACE (4:00 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I)
1 mile on the Turf for 2 year old Fillies. Purse $1,000,000.00
(6) NEWSPAPEROFRECORD cuts back slightly after drawing off by 6+ lengths in both lifetime starts. Those races were contested over courses labeled “yielding” and the promise of early week wet weather may produce another surface to her liking. She should be prominent throughout and may keep her perfect record intact. (3) LILY’S CANDLE shocked the field in the Group I Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp and the versatile French bred could go well no matter the condition of the turf course. (2) THE MACKEM BULLET has been unlucky while finishing 2nd to FAIRYLAND in her last 2 Euro Stakes. She has improved her speed figure in each successive start and another move forward is possible. (14) EAST is a lightly raced undefeated filly by FRANKEL who could appreciate the stretchout to a mile.
7 SEVENTH RACE (4:40 P.M. EST)
Tito’s Handmade Vodka Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade I)
1 1/16th Miles on the Dirt for 2 year olds Fillies. Purse $2,000,000.00
(2) SERENGETI EMPRESS has come to hand for trainer Tom Amoss winning her last 2 races impressively while seemingly not being asked. Solid works over the CD main track since her Grade II score in the Pocanhantas Stakes are displayed and this bargain Keeneland sales purchase and daughter of ALTERNATION seems poised to have a great future. In a race where several may have designs on the engine duties, she may get a perfect “stalk and pounce” type journey. (10) BELLAFINA is a 2 time Grade I winner on the West Coast who ships East for Simon Callaghan. The expensive daughter of QUALITY ROAD has drawn off in winning her last 3 and seems clearly the one to beat! (7) JAYWALK exits a victory in the Grade I Frizette Stakes at Belmont and that prep race has produced the most Juvenile Fillies victors with 11 so far. Jockey Joel Rosario lands here when he had at least 2 other options and this filly could go well while seeking her 4th straight win. (4) RESTLESS RIDER won the Grade I Alcibiades at Keeneland last out and began her career going 2 for 2 over the CD main track in June. She is another who could go well from just off the pace.
8 EIGHTH RACE (5:22 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade I)
1 Mile on the Turf for 2 year olds. Purse $1,000,000.00
(14) ANTHONY VAN DYCK is a Group II winner over soft turf in Ireland who ships across the pond for Aidan O’Brien. He will need clever handling to overcome his wide draw but he could go well for strong connections. (6) HENLEY’S JOY missed by a nose in the Grade III Bourbon Stakes last out and he hasn’t run a bad race in 3 lifetime starts. 2 for 2 at this mile distance, he could be in line for a good “stalk and pounce” trip. (12) CURRENT was the recipient of that nose bob in the aforementioned Bourbon and while that was run over a course labeled “firm” he has run well over a good surface also. He is another who will need to overcome a wide post but he deserves consideration. (4) FORTY UNDER has won his last 2 including the Grade III Pilgrim Stakes over a “yielding” Belmont course. Extremely well bred for the cutback to this distance, he could better this rating. (5) LINE OF DUTY sports an ascending speed figure pattern and he has never been out of the exacta in 4 lifetime starts. Include if spreading in exotics!
9 NINTH RACE (6:05 P.M. EST)
Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade I)
1 1/16th Miles on the Dirt for 2 year olds. Purse $2,000,000.00
(6) COMPLEXITY is a speedy son of MACLEAN’S MUSIC and is 2 for 2 lifetime which includes winning the Grade I Champagne Stakes last out. He will need to avoid a speed duel but could be the one to beat in this well balanced affair. (1) DUELING is a pricey son of VIOLENCE who just broke his maiden last out. He was actually favored 2 back when facing the likely post time favorite in this heat but proved to be 2nd best that day. If a speed duel does develop he may arrive on the scene in the late stages and garner a major share at a price. (9) GAME WINNER is a perfect 3 for 3 lifetime including a Grade I win at this distance on the West Coast last out. He could take another step forward as the likely post time favorite. (4) TIGHT TEN shows trouble lines in all 3 lifetime starts including as the beaten favorite in the Grade III Iroquois last out. The son of TAPIT has shown an affinity for the Churchill Downs main track surface and he could improve quickly especially if there is some moisture in the track. He is worth a long look especially underneath in gimmicks!