Over the Fences - week 2.
Jul 25, 2023 20:54:02 GMT -5
Post by propro on Jul 25, 2023 20:54:02 GMT -5
www.equibase.com/content/CustomPPs/NYRA/NyraBroadcast072623.pdf
1st Race. (C1) ALLOWANCE HURDLE
James W. (Woody) Maloney, Jr.
Purse $70,000 (Up to $12,180 NYSBFOA) Two Miles And One Sixteenth (National Fences)
For Four Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races.
2 - pp1 Salvino (IRE) B.g.7 152 McGivern, C Merrigan, P Neville, Patrick
3 - pp2 Hoffman (IRE)(L) Ch.g.4 150 Dunne, R Smith, M Young, Leslie
4 - pp3 Mr. Connecticut(L) B.g.5 156 Beswick, H Upland Flats Racing Hendriks, Richard
1 - pp4 Modus Operandi (IRE)(L) B.g.5 152 Hendriks, P Hudson River Farms Brion, Keri
5 - pp5 Gold (FR)(L) B.g.5 152 Dalton, B Rolling Tide LLC Fout, Paul
6 - pp6 Beat Le Bon (FR)(L) B.g.7 156 Watters, G Merriebelle Stable LLC Fisher, Jack
1a - pp7 L'Imperator (FR) B.g.6 156 Mulqueen, S Hudson River Farms Kingsley, Jr., Archibald
7 - pp8 Top Brass (GB)(L) B.g.5 152 Galligan, G Ashwell Stable, LLC Young, Leslie
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8 fences and a long half mile run on the flat to finish. This should be one heck of a race.
#2 Salvino. Wheels right back after a miserable run in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick last week. Takes blinkers off and adds at least one cheek piece. While this is arguably easier, I think he needs more ground and is a toss for me.
#3 Hoffman. Leslie Young's first entrant. While he shouldn't be eligible for this N2L race, he is because he ran on the wrong side of a marker pole on the course and was disqualified for leaving the course in his last. Import started jumping last year at three and has been nothing short of beastly this year. His first start in 2023 was against an excellent group and he ran them off their feet. Last out, against a much weaker field, he went clear immediately after the start. Chart had him in front by 50 lengths at one point and it had to be closer to 100 lengths. His pace was faster than the Grade 2 Semmes Memorial run by older horses the same day. Wednesday, he's going to be challenged by the start. The starter at Saratoga likes to keep them in post position order. This doesn't happen in the spring races. He will need to be alert and forward (risking a reformation) since the inside and outside 2-3 runners can be compromised by the start, since they're still trying to line up while the middle of the pack runners are moving forward. This IS the horse to beat and will be the favorite, but remember, he's a 4YO facing older.
#4 Mr. Connecticut. NY Bred completely outran his non-betting "odds" last out with a huge effort in a starter allowance MSW for former claimers. That was 3 weeks after being claimed. He ran by Quid last out, who would have been favored in his 2023 return. Fastest time at the distance on the card and has closing racetrack form on his card from last year. He's going to be closing late, but has a lot of work to do here.
#1(poe) Modus Operandi. Hudson River Farms sends out two here, this one trained by Keri Brion. While Brion hasn't won as often as last year, her runners hit the board regularly and it's hard leaving her out of the trifecta. I think this gelded son of Frankel is the weaker of her two. He will be closing from far back, but he's too much of a tweener in here for me (not enough speed, not enough closing ability). I'm not a fan today.
#5 Gold. Beware. Making his first start of 2023 after breaking his maiden last fall at the International Gold Cup meet at Great Meadow in October at 22-1 while first time Lasix. He was never, ever in doubt. Jumped like a veteran and was completely on his own after the final jump while still drawing away full of run, posting the fastest time of the card at the distance. Is this a prep for the fall races? Maybe. I'm VERY interested and hope there's some hidden info in the Special.
(GOLD HAS BEEN SCRATCHED...GRRRRR)
#6 Beat Le Bon. 1 for 1 this year, breaking his maiden at the Tryon Block House meet in April. Would have been 3/5 there with betting. Went to the front and set a good pace with Agitaire on his heels. Agitaire was making his jump debut, but won the flat race at Far Hills last year. Would have been an excellent race had Parker Hendricks not screwed up a fence and Agitaire went down. Beat Le Bon was on his own after that and crushed the overmatched field. Import won 374k on the flat in the UK before shipping to the US, winding up in the NSA after a coupld of flat tries. Jack Fisher is one of the best trainers in the game and this runner will be forwardly placed. 4-1 morning line, wouldn't surprise me if he's much shorter than that.
#1a L'Imperator. Other half of the entry, comes off a flat prep after breaking his maiden over the jumps at the Iroquois meet, although his division ran about 10 seconds slower than the other MSW. Will be closing and looks like the better half of the entry. At 2-1ml, I'm looking elsewhere for value.
#7 Top Brass. Leslie Young's other entrant 5 year old has had moderate success against weaker conditioned and claimers. He's consistent, but these look too quick for him. He's a toss for me.
(TOP BRASS HAS BEEN SCRATCHED...)
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Gold. Hoffman. Beat Le Bon. Mr. Connecticut. I'll be playing around with these and hoping for some "gold" after they hit the wire.
After scratches, there are 5 betting interests left. I still think the Hudson River Farms entry is going to be overbet and I'm leaving them out. Hoffman and Beat Le Bon are going to be clear of this group early and it's going to take some catching to get to them....
Who do you like and why? Good luck!!
1st Race. (C1) ALLOWANCE HURDLE
James W. (Woody) Maloney, Jr.
Purse $70,000 (Up to $12,180 NYSBFOA) Two Miles And One Sixteenth (National Fences)
For Four Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races.
2 - pp1 Salvino (IRE) B.g.7 152 McGivern, C Merrigan, P Neville, Patrick
3 - pp2 Hoffman (IRE)(L) Ch.g.4 150 Dunne, R Smith, M Young, Leslie
4 - pp3 Mr. Connecticut(L) B.g.5 156 Beswick, H Upland Flats Racing Hendriks, Richard
1 - pp4 Modus Operandi (IRE)(L) B.g.5 152 Hendriks, P Hudson River Farms Brion, Keri
5 - pp5 Gold (FR)(L) B.g.5 152 Dalton, B Rolling Tide LLC Fout, Paul
6 - pp6 Beat Le Bon (FR)(L) B.g.7 156 Watters, G Merriebelle Stable LLC Fisher, Jack
1a - pp7 L'Imperator (FR) B.g.6 156 Mulqueen, S Hudson River Farms Kingsley, Jr., Archibald
7 - pp8 Top Brass (GB)(L) B.g.5 152 Galligan, G Ashwell Stable, LLC Young, Leslie
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 fences and a long half mile run on the flat to finish. This should be one heck of a race.
#2 Salvino. Wheels right back after a miserable run in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick last week. Takes blinkers off and adds at least one cheek piece. While this is arguably easier, I think he needs more ground and is a toss for me.
#3 Hoffman. Leslie Young's first entrant. While he shouldn't be eligible for this N2L race, he is because he ran on the wrong side of a marker pole on the course and was disqualified for leaving the course in his last. Import started jumping last year at three and has been nothing short of beastly this year. His first start in 2023 was against an excellent group and he ran them off their feet. Last out, against a much weaker field, he went clear immediately after the start. Chart had him in front by 50 lengths at one point and it had to be closer to 100 lengths. His pace was faster than the Grade 2 Semmes Memorial run by older horses the same day. Wednesday, he's going to be challenged by the start. The starter at Saratoga likes to keep them in post position order. This doesn't happen in the spring races. He will need to be alert and forward (risking a reformation) since the inside and outside 2-3 runners can be compromised by the start, since they're still trying to line up while the middle of the pack runners are moving forward. This IS the horse to beat and will be the favorite, but remember, he's a 4YO facing older.
#4 Mr. Connecticut. NY Bred completely outran his non-betting "odds" last out with a huge effort in a starter allowance MSW for former claimers. That was 3 weeks after being claimed. He ran by Quid last out, who would have been favored in his 2023 return. Fastest time at the distance on the card and has closing racetrack form on his card from last year. He's going to be closing late, but has a lot of work to do here.
#1(poe) Modus Operandi. Hudson River Farms sends out two here, this one trained by Keri Brion. While Brion hasn't won as often as last year, her runners hit the board regularly and it's hard leaving her out of the trifecta. I think this gelded son of Frankel is the weaker of her two. He will be closing from far back, but he's too much of a tweener in here for me (not enough speed, not enough closing ability). I'm not a fan today.
#5 Gold. Beware. Making his first start of 2023 after breaking his maiden last fall at the International Gold Cup meet at Great Meadow in October at 22-1 while first time Lasix. He was never, ever in doubt. Jumped like a veteran and was completely on his own after the final jump while still drawing away full of run, posting the fastest time of the card at the distance. Is this a prep for the fall races? Maybe. I'm VERY interested and hope there's some hidden info in the Special.
(GOLD HAS BEEN SCRATCHED...GRRRRR)
#6 Beat Le Bon. 1 for 1 this year, breaking his maiden at the Tryon Block House meet in April. Would have been 3/5 there with betting. Went to the front and set a good pace with Agitaire on his heels. Agitaire was making his jump debut, but won the flat race at Far Hills last year. Would have been an excellent race had Parker Hendricks not screwed up a fence and Agitaire went down. Beat Le Bon was on his own after that and crushed the overmatched field. Import won 374k on the flat in the UK before shipping to the US, winding up in the NSA after a coupld of flat tries. Jack Fisher is one of the best trainers in the game and this runner will be forwardly placed. 4-1 morning line, wouldn't surprise me if he's much shorter than that.
#1a L'Imperator. Other half of the entry, comes off a flat prep after breaking his maiden over the jumps at the Iroquois meet, although his division ran about 10 seconds slower than the other MSW. Will be closing and looks like the better half of the entry. At 2-1ml, I'm looking elsewhere for value.
#7 Top Brass. Leslie Young's other entrant 5 year old has had moderate success against weaker conditioned and claimers. He's consistent, but these look too quick for him. He's a toss for me.
(TOP BRASS HAS BEEN SCRATCHED...)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold. Hoffman. Beat Le Bon. Mr. Connecticut. I'll be playing around with these and hoping for some "gold" after they hit the wire.
After scratches, there are 5 betting interests left. I still think the Hudson River Farms entry is going to be overbet and I'm leaving them out. Hoffman and Beat Le Bon are going to be clear of this group early and it's going to take some catching to get to them....
Who do you like and why? Good luck!!
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