Betting Handle

[1hooper]

Best article I've read this year.  www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/letter-to-the-editor-existential-crisis-no-hyperbole/

[turffan]

Thought provoking letter.

[spiderjohn]

Amazing read
Worse than I thought, and written by someone from within
Thank you!

[eye123]

You can look to many places over the last 20 yrs where this is the thought....

[shoes]

Who are the "powers that be" here, who can address this in the industry?

[tenfurlongs]

One side of the discussion:

pastthewire.com/horseracings-true-lifeline


Another side, with numbers:

racingthinktank.com/blog/sharks-and-minnows-managing-growing-imbalance-racing-wagering-markets


Elite Turf Club:

opencorporates.com/companies/cw/86733




TW

[merasmag]

after 30 years of this
sum1 has a solution

[spiderjohn]

So interesting….
Thanx again!

[eye123]

June 19th,2023



Just last weekend, when Santa Anita offered a mandatory payout on its jackpot pick six play, its parent company’s ADW, Xpressbet, sought to attract play by offering up to $20 back as a bonus if players staked $100 on the bet, both in the two days before the mandatory payout and on the day itself. The parent company of both Santa Anita and Xpressbet, 1/ST Racing, is the majority owner of Elite Turf Club.

The marketing has “worked,” as has the reduction of minimum bet amounts on such plays. Total handle for the pick six on their last mandatory payout day, June 18, was over $3.7 million. TIF observations of the accumulations of the pool suggest well more than 40% of that came from CAW play, chasing a carryover of just more than $346,000. These figures are similar to other mandatory payout day observations with smaller jackpots. When the carryovers balloon, so too does CAW handle.

While tracks and regulators generally do not identify what amount of mandatory winnings went to mass market players and CAWs, the Gulfstream data suggests these sorts of bets serve mostly as handouts to CAWs and as dumpster fires for mass market players.

[merasmag]

which is EXACTLY why i didn't take the bait (i played it the day b4)
horseplayers r supposed to be smarter than the average gambler
those who aren't just
aren't.
there is a point here
BUT TONIGHT
the writer is WAY off
cubs v braves would have 40k on a thursday afternoon
whereas tonite...i may do "the blowout"

[spiderjohn]

Probably need to read all above again, since I have so many ?s

Do they play every race or input every race?
Certain types of races prioritized?
What are the key factors and how are they weighted(probably a private program thing)?

As with everything, the big players get a huge edge and with this, the tracks/wagering outlets are in on it

So—- I will cut back on p3/4/5/6 wagers and go with win exacta and tri wagers and getting ready for football since legalized in my state now

[spiderjohn]

It would be interesting to see the wagers made on a race or on a day’s racing…..
I assume they are layering possibilities

[Deleted]

Interesting action in the ASD Super Hi 5 last night. The bet is offered on the last 2 races of the night. Not a jackpot bet but if nobody has a winning ticket the pool carries over.  

Race 6 pool is 5.7 k. No winners so there is 4.4K of dead money going to the last. CAW’s get triggered and the pool for the last is over 133k. The robots like this bet because it is high takeout which means bigger rebates and the seven horse field reduced the possible combos.

[spiderjohn]

So interesting—today I checked the pools in the toga 1st
40% was on the p5

Do these players get a bigger rebate when the take out is higher?

I don’t play those wagers as much now

[mysaladdays]

I am wondering why this "subject matter" is showing up all over the place recently? Bill Ziemba was writing about racetrack efficiency models back in 1981, Bill Benter was developing statistical models/factors for race predictions back in 1984 (later paired up with Alan Woods).

This is kinda old news to many?

But the short story is: No recreational player can compete with multi-million dollar bankrolls, lightning-fast networks (dedicated circuit for their own use, not shared w/other users, very little latency, etc), and carefully-designed probability-crunching database systems designed by high level M.I.T. type engineer/mathematics grads. The parimutual fund managers have lots of employees on their "team" and they all have the data that their machines "spit out" before putting down $600K+ on one race....and they are entering the numbers in tandem. Wanna be a CTO/CFO of one? Salary is about $1 million.

And the bigger the handle, the less likely the odds are going to move too much--- so they make their money. And more extravagant the crazy betting opportunities are, the more they make, because they have the resources and technology to nail them down. They love these "smorgasboard wagers".


I also remember when all the Pick exotics wagering started, and I disconnected from racing TV at the time because their "boxes" with picks started covering up the screen, and interfered w/the time and visuals that I get to see the horses themselves.......I want to see them a lot and in full, legs, ankles, hooves, walking, cantering, etc. post parade, etc. But the boxes were in the way.

So I never wagered any Pick races and not about to.

I also know I don't have the resources to go up against these pari-mutual fund managers.


But one of the reasons I started betting at Oaklawn back in the day (even before I moved to Arkansas)  was because the Sr. Cella was very much opposed to CAWs and didn't allow them in the pools.  I'm sure that has changed now, but they are most likely "reined in" in many ways, like they are at NYRA now (late to the party in that respect). 

[mysaladdays]

Jul 18, 2023 12:13:42 GMT -5 1hooper said:

Best article I've read this year.  www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/letter-to-the-editor-existential-crisis-no-hyperbole/

 I would have to know a LOT MORE about Jerry Brown to know exactly and in detail, how he has or has not "benefitted" from the things he talkss about.  

Since I do not know, I can't begin to answer that question.  

[merasmag]

just this itself is enuf to know betting on racing is just stupid
(says a michael jordan-type addict)
"But the short story is: No recreational player can compete with...lightning-fast networks (dedicated circuit for their own use, not shared w/other users, very little latency, etc)

my ex-bf's crew had a member (low-level owner/teller baby daddy)
who got his kicks by betting 500 to win on ls at erie or other such tracks
and then cancelling at the last second
i hated him and that teller
he's dead, she's probably rich, otb is closed

[1hooper]

According to panelists presenting at the 71st Annual Round Table Conference on Matters Pertaining to Racing in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., this week, computer players are driving out more traditional horseplayers – but they're probably here to stay.

Data presented by Thoroughbred Idea Foundation executive director Pat Cummings shows that in 2003, computer-assisted wagering accounted for $1.2 billion in parimutuel handle (or $1.93 billion when adjusted for inflation). At that time other players were responsible for $13.98 billion in handle (or $22.51 billion when adjusted for inflation). By 2022, computer-assisted wagering was up 109% to $4 billion, while other wagering was down 64 percent to $8.1 billion.

[mysaladdays]

Jul 18, 2023 14:17:47 GMT -5 shoes said:

Who are the "powers that be" here, who can address this in the industry?

In one way you are asking "who are the friends of the recreational gambler?"  People like many of us, who go to the track in person (so they don't become ghostowns), and/or support the track with our (combined) wagers.  Our money is in the pools, therefore we contribute to the game. 

for me, it cannot be someone selling a service, a product, etc.  


So if anyone comes up with an answer, LMK.  

[merasmag]

boy i came up with a lot b4 the game started...
this is from this financialpost.com/executive/executive-women/belinda-stronachs-big-bet-on-the-sport-of-kings article:

It is a game of “eyeballs,” Stronach said. And if the eyeballs still don’t show up, TSG just so happens to own several substantial tracts of prime, warm weather real estate, including Santa Anita, which is a stone’s throw from Los Angeles, Golden Gate Fields in the San Francisco Bay area, and Gulfstream Park north of Miami.

That’s not to suggest she is interested in selling any of the above, not at this moment, and quite possibly not ever, but it is nice to know one has options should the need for a fallback plan arise.

[merasmag]

i was going to C&P a large chunk of this and then I realized i should just put the link-

www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/when-do-caws-help-and-hurt-california-racing/

live and learn peoples
(i was feeling sorry 4 myself knot being able to afford to bet as much but now i am happy)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%AAte_noire

[merasmag]

heard the new temporary bally's casino's opening downtown
is being delayed another month
but i hope they have nickel slots (do they still make those?)