Over The Fences with Propro

[tenfurlongs]

I'm hoping that UIC's own jump race specialist Propro will see this, and maybe he can be coaxed into providing analysis for the 'steeplechase' race to be run every Wednesday at Saratoga for the next seven weeks. No pressure, but the rest of us are just throwing darts, for the most part.

nationalsteeplechase.com/nsa-summer-kickoff-set-for-colonial-downs-saratoga


www.racingpost.com/racecards/445/saratoga/2023-07-19/845656


PP Horse Sex/Age Wgt Jockey Owner Trainer Equip Change


SAR 1st Race. (C1) HANDICAP STAKE HURDLE


THE A.P. SMITHWICK MEMORIAL Grade I - $150,000

Non-Lasix race pursuant to 4043.2 (7)(e)(5) Lasix not permitted within 48 hours of post time

Purse $150,000 (Up to $26,100 NYSBFOA) Two Miles And One Sixteenth (National Fences)

A HURDLE FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.


1 Freddy Flintshire B.g.5 148 Hendriks, P Upland Flats Racing Brion, Keri

2 Redicean (GB)(O) B.g.9 146 Dunne, R Sheppard, S Young, Leslie

3 Noah And The Ark (IRE) Ch.g.9 158 Beswick, H Keystone Thoroughbreds McKenna, Todd

4 Historic Heart (IRE) Ch.g.6 148 Mullins, D Atlantic Friends Racing Brion, Keri

5 Salvino (IRE) B.g.7 140 Sheehan, G Merrigan, P Neville, Patrick Blk-On

6 West Newton (GB)(O) B.g.7 144 Kennedy, J Upland Flats Racing Hendriks, Richard

7 Gordon's Jet (IRE)(O) Ch.g.7 144 Garner, T Riverdee Stable Fisher, Jack

8 Welshman(O) B.g.5 152 Watters, G Via, Jr., H Fisher, Jack

9 Belfast Banter (IRE)(O) B.g.8 144 Foley, B Naylor, I Murphy, Cyril




TW

[cherokeescot]

This is not a race to make a snap decision on . Several of these horses have ran against each other recently. Could be a good contest race to get a decent price winner.

[cherokeescot]

#6 West Newton was bred by Her Majesty The Queen. Won last time out after a 1402 day lay off.

[phlierfreak]

and the queen will be with her.

[propro]

Tom, I'd be happy to add some content here. There's no clear favorite here and the likelihood of a soft turf course (rated FIRM by NYRA) adds more mystique. Hopefully it isn't too firm where they have to postpone the race...some thoughts, even though I don't have any picks yet.

Freddy Flintshire - Stepping up from the Novice ranks, Freddy ran well here last year and finishes very well, which suits the "we don't want jumpers jumping the last jump" awful logic we see at NYRA and other flat tracks. Well beaten second last out in Nashville and would have been a well beaten third had The Hero Next Door not slipped and belly flopped over the last jump while clear. Big contender here.

Redicean - Old veteran had no shot in the Iroquois and chased Snap Decision in his 2023 debut. Going to be a great price if he runs his best, but without Lasix, he's a toss for me.

Noah and The Ark - 158lbs high weight. Can handle soft, but giving weight on soft is tricky. Way best here if he runs back to his 2022 Lonesome Glory. Figures to get a perfect trip here behind the speed and there are no monsters like he's faced in his last two. Iroquois at PW and Grand National at FH are the two best races we run in the US. Should have been the ML favorite and is the horse to beat.

Historic Heart - prepped on the flat for this. Not sure why Keri didn't send him over the jumps, but it's a shrewd move if she thinks he's finally ready to explode on to the scene and convert his Novice success into open success.

Salvino - Import has had limited success going much longer in England. Soft going won't be an issue, but the shorter distance isn't going to help him. Guessing this is a prep for the longer races later.

West Newton - Giant effort at Foxfield last out in a 130 or under ratings race. Set an unpressured pace and looked like he was going to be left in the dust when stakes winners City Dreaming and Scorpion's Revenge ranged up with 2 jumps to go. West Newton dug in and exploded home to keep Scorpion's Revenge behind him. Although it was the season's debut for those two runners, it was a really impressive race and he's going to be a solid price today. Note to Bev: West Newton didn't have a layoff like you think.

Gordon's Jet - Hard running second behind stablemate Welshman at the Virginia Gold Cup meeting at Great Meadow. Sharp in his two US starts and the Clancy boys will be cheering him on. Definite contender to hit the board.

Welshman - 5yo has really improved his game with experience. Got the jump on Gordon's Jet last out and finished strong. I think he's sitting on a huge effort here for Jack Fisher.

Belfast Banter - don't be so quick to toss this 20-1 ML shot. A good third behind Welshman and Gordon's Jet last out in his second race of the year. He gave six and ten pounds to those two that day and drops 14 pounds today. I think he's another sitting on a big effort and could juice up the exotics even if he runs second or third.

Will be looking to see what the Clancy's write up on this race is. Love the extra info they write on the hurdle races that you can't find through any other method.

[tenfurlongs]

Knew I could count of you, thanks Peter! Agreed that you can't get any better inside info than from the Saratoga Special, especially when they have a runner in the race.

I made you a logo, if you want I'll email it to you, or you can just copy it from here:








TW

[merasmag]

GREAT logo (imho)
just humidity itself will keep it soft
mayb 2 much

[propro]

Thanks Tom! Too big for an avatar, but the horse looks good. :-)

[mysaladdays]

Thanks to pro pro and you guys, I made a bundle of money on this race, only betting the lowest amounts allowable on each wager. I never do this well, and probably woould not have w/out your input, so thanks. I had to share.

and am alive to the P-3.

COMPLETED:f11c6-dec84 SAR #1 $1 Exacta BX, 4, 9 none $2.00
$103.00 + $101.00
COMPLETED:aeae4-4930f SAR #1 $0.50 Trifecta BX, 1, 4, 9 none $3.00
$191.25 + $188.25
COMPLETED:aa042-e421d SAR #1 $0.10 Superfecta BX, 1, 3, 4, 9 none $2.40
$195.05 + $192.65


ACCEPTED:b57ff-14673
SAR #1
$1 Pick-3 3, 9, WT, 1, WT, 4 none $2.00

I don't expect to get the P3 but fingers crossed, I did not want to spend more money than #2.00 on it so I picked a longer shot for R2.  

[tenfurlongs]

Jul 19, 2023 12:26:23 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Thanks to pro pro and you guys, I made a bundle of money on this race, only betting the lowest amounts allowable on each wager. I never do this well, and probably woould not have w/out your input, so thanks. I had to share.

and am alive to the P-3.

COMPLETED:f11c6-dec84 SAR #1 $1 Exacta BX, 4, 9 none $2.00
$103.00 + $101.00
COMPLETED:aeae4-4930f SAR #1 $0.50 Trifecta BX, 1, 4, 9 none $3.00
$191.25 + $188.25
COMPLETED:aa042-e421d SAR #1 $0.10 Superfecta BX, 1, 3, 4, 9 none $2.40
$195.05 + $192.65


ACCEPTED:b57ff-14673
SAR #1
$1 Pick-3 3, 9, WT, 1, WT, 4 none $2.00

I don't expect to get the P3 but fingers crossed, I did not want to spend more money than #2.00 on it so I picked a longer shot for R2.  

Wow, that was a spectacular way to start the day, good for you! If you can get the #1 home in the 2nd, the pick-3 will-pay will be ginormous. Rooting!




TW

[propro]

mysaladdays....outstanding bets there!! Great job!

[merasmag]

AWESOME!