IT'S SUMMER FESTIVAL 2023 at Tampa and FREE PLAYS ARE HERE!
Jun 30, 2023 7:57:24 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Jun 30, 2023 7:57:24 GMT -5
Summer Festival 2023 – June 30th
Some are only here for the Starter’s Bonus, some are only here for the Jockey’s Bonus and some of us are only here because we have nowhere else to go. An extreme UV index of 11 and a 95-degree afternoon will keep all but a few hundred Gen Y types at home today.
I got a handful of chalky types, but I guess that’s to be expected at this annual Shit Show.
1st – HVG was Chavez’s regular boy in 22-23 and they have 4 going at the Summer Festival. HVG comes all the way from Lake Erie and a busy schedule there for 11 mounts here in two days. Surprisingly, Chavez/HVG had two FTS + FTT types at the regular meeting and both hit the board.
Manning is 3 days short of a 46 & 60 multiple angle. What’s a few days between friends. Verifiable (7) went +7,0 here in May while weakening late. Might just destroy these.
Deaton’s AE will be trouble if it gets in. Bill is 23% win in all turf tries and shortens up today (78% ITM) after two successive up-close finishes on the grass.
$10 Win 7 and $10 DD 7/1
2nd – I happened to notice a bit of a spread between my numbers and the Bris numbers today and that could produce something worthwhile. On the day that Duke Skywalker (1) broke his maiden, Bris called the effort 1 better than today’s par while I called it +4, while on 4/29 Bris called it -12, while I had only a -5. In both races, I had him +10 and +6 early. Javier Gonzalez is a respectable 23 (2-0-5) with this type in L5T. PP1 has won 6 of last 20 on the dirt at the Summer Festival. Just sayin’.
I was digging, hoping to find some evidence that Karen Philipp might have had some luck with FBKs, but I found none. Tom (3) has been close to par here in the past.
Erlan (7) drops after horrendous start in mud. N2L is the bottom. This type often surprises (again).
$10 Win 1 and Weighted Exacta Key 1/2,3,7
3rd – Spanabel is back in the saddle and Skyler bombed 10 times for Waz in 21-22. Hey, ya never know!
Exacta Box 2,4,6
4th – In another case of spread dysfunction, Remember the Tune (2) was 10 better than Bris reported in Turf win. Chavez/Generazio/HVG go for it again here.
Santillana is having his two best years in the last twenty in 22-23, winning 10 of last 85. He’s 19% Win lifetime on the lawn.
$25 Win 2 and Saver Trifectas 5/2/1,4,8 to cover
5th – Even effort at 5F improves outlook for long time bomb maker Yanez who was 40% ITM with this type of StRer at 13-1 in the past. Moises prices have slipped in 2023, more evidence that yesterday’s bomb makers are today’s chalky types.
$10 ATB 4
6th – McGoey was 5 of 7 ITM with 2 wins with the S + Dropdown at the 22-23 meeting.
Drake bombed with RD Blessing more often than Margo takes the elevator but now he’s got one that he has to play it straight with. 77Cat (6) accounts for 20% of Drakes LT Earnings. He has no choice but to try…
$25 Weighted DDs 1,6/5 and $2 Pick 3 -1,6/All/1 ($32)
7th – Cahill (16% Bombs in L2T) is surrogate for KOC who is10% Win with FTTs but 0-12 with FTTs in Sprints but with 5 ITM. Santos had only two mounts for KOC in 22-23, a winner and a 3rd. How about that?
$5 ATB 5
8th – Stewart is 20% Win on the Dropdown here and often has them ready off the long layoff (15% Win). Versus these, chances look even better. Santos is up again.
Saver Exactas 4,5,9/1 if alive in the P3 to cover
Mr. Pick 4 at Ocala Downs South for 06/30/2023
First things first .....just a quick review of the first 93 days at the
current meet .... we had 77 plays total, resulting in a loss of $385.15.
Now, that may sound like it sucks, but it boils down to $5.00 per play.
77 plays, at $10 a day is an awful lot of action for the money. I don't
know what the TV guys ROI's are, but I'm gonna venture a guess, and
think that it's a much larger minus ............
Now, the ever popular Summer Festival of Racing, which ends the current
meet, and commences the '23-'24 racing season, is on tap. I just have to
say, that it hurt, just to handicap these cards .....they have nothing on
Fairmount or Mountaineer .....can I get a big UGH !?!?
Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50
2) 1, 3, 6, 7
3) 2, 3
4) 2, 4, 5, 8
5) 2, 6
$32.00
Late Pic 4 (5-8) $0.50
5) 2, 3, 4, 6
6) 2, 7
7) 3 ** (Go Skyler)
8) 1, 4
$8.00
** Best Bet
Some are only here for the Starter’s Bonus, some are only here for the Jockey’s Bonus and some of us are only here because we have nowhere else to go. An extreme UV index of 11 and a 95-degree afternoon will keep all but a few hundred Gen Y types at home today.
I got a handful of chalky types, but I guess that’s to be expected at this annual Shit Show.
1st – HVG was Chavez’s regular boy in 22-23 and they have 4 going at the Summer Festival. HVG comes all the way from Lake Erie and a busy schedule there for 11 mounts here in two days. Surprisingly, Chavez/HVG had two FTS + FTT types at the regular meeting and both hit the board.
Manning is 3 days short of a 46 & 60 multiple angle. What’s a few days between friends. Verifiable (7) went +7,0 here in May while weakening late. Might just destroy these.
Deaton’s AE will be trouble if it gets in. Bill is 23% win in all turf tries and shortens up today (78% ITM) after two successive up-close finishes on the grass.
$10 Win 7 and $10 DD 7/1
2nd – I happened to notice a bit of a spread between my numbers and the Bris numbers today and that could produce something worthwhile. On the day that Duke Skywalker (1) broke his maiden, Bris called the effort 1 better than today’s par while I called it +4, while on 4/29 Bris called it -12, while I had only a -5. In both races, I had him +10 and +6 early. Javier Gonzalez is a respectable 23 (2-0-5) with this type in L5T. PP1 has won 6 of last 20 on the dirt at the Summer Festival. Just sayin’.
I was digging, hoping to find some evidence that Karen Philipp might have had some luck with FBKs, but I found none. Tom (3) has been close to par here in the past.
Erlan (7) drops after horrendous start in mud. N2L is the bottom. This type often surprises (again).
$10 Win 1 and Weighted Exacta Key 1/2,3,7
3rd – Spanabel is back in the saddle and Skyler bombed 10 times for Waz in 21-22. Hey, ya never know!
Exacta Box 2,4,6
4th – In another case of spread dysfunction, Remember the Tune (2) was 10 better than Bris reported in Turf win. Chavez/Generazio/HVG go for it again here.
Santillana is having his two best years in the last twenty in 22-23, winning 10 of last 85. He’s 19% Win lifetime on the lawn.
$25 Win 2 and Saver Trifectas 5/2/1,4,8 to cover
5th – Even effort at 5F improves outlook for long time bomb maker Yanez who was 40% ITM with this type of StRer at 13-1 in the past. Moises prices have slipped in 2023, more evidence that yesterday’s bomb makers are today’s chalky types.
$10 ATB 4
6th – McGoey was 5 of 7 ITM with 2 wins with the S + Dropdown at the 22-23 meeting.
Drake bombed with RD Blessing more often than Margo takes the elevator but now he’s got one that he has to play it straight with. 77Cat (6) accounts for 20% of Drakes LT Earnings. He has no choice but to try…
$25 Weighted DDs 1,6/5 and $2 Pick 3 -1,6/All/1 ($32)
7th – Cahill (16% Bombs in L2T) is surrogate for KOC who is10% Win with FTTs but 0-12 with FTTs in Sprints but with 5 ITM. Santos had only two mounts for KOC in 22-23, a winner and a 3rd. How about that?
$5 ATB 5
8th – Stewart is 20% Win on the Dropdown here and often has them ready off the long layoff (15% Win). Versus these, chances look even better. Santos is up again.
Saver Exactas 4,5,9/1 if alive in the P3 to cover
Mr. Pick 4 at Ocala Downs South for 06/30/2023
First things first .....just a quick review of the first 93 days at the
current meet .... we had 77 plays total, resulting in a loss of $385.15.
Now, that may sound like it sucks, but it boils down to $5.00 per play.
77 plays, at $10 a day is an awful lot of action for the money. I don't
know what the TV guys ROI's are, but I'm gonna venture a guess, and
think that it's a much larger minus ............
Now, the ever popular Summer Festival of Racing, which ends the current
meet, and commences the '23-'24 racing season, is on tap. I just have to
say, that it hurt, just to handicap these cards .....they have nothing on
Fairmount or Mountaineer .....can I get a big UGH !?!?
Early Pic 4 (2-5) $0.50
2) 1, 3, 6, 7
3) 2, 3
4) 2, 4, 5, 8
5) 2, 6
$32.00
Late Pic 4 (5-8) $0.50
5) 2, 3, 4, 6
6) 2, 7
7) 3 ** (Go Skyler)
8) 1, 4
$8.00
** Best Bet
