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Post by quickcall on May 8, 2023 9:58:39 GMT -5
No handicapping necessary.
Bet the post time favorite in an Exacta box with a few longshots.
Simple as that.
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Post by damascus on May 8, 2023 10:39:43 GMT -5
LOL. Best advice yet! As a followup, what notes do you have for betting the Preakness?  |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 8, 2023 10:59:05 GMT -5
I have good Preakness notes and angles. I will post them up later in the week.
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,135
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Post by shoes on May 8, 2023 14:19:54 GMT -5
I don't have any major regrets. I felt Mage was too big of a question mark given:
Only 3 career starts, all at 3, and he did not resemble Justify coming in in terms of performance figs.
Propensity to start bad and would likely fall behind too many horses.
Seemed to tire at 1 1/8.
On the flip side:
Obviously talented, made a move on the final turn in the Florida Derby, that resembled many Derby winning moves.
Young 3 year old can improve rapidly, and he was certainly eligible to do so.
The flip side was the winner and the price was nice. I admire those who took the chance on him, but won't feel bad about my making a different choice. I was alive to Dermo and Angel, OAKs-Derby doubles, Two day pick 3s, and same day pick 3s. I thought I had a pace presser and a closer with big shots. They ran 3rd and 6th, not horrible.
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Post by spiderjohn on May 8, 2023 14:24:29 GMT -5
Maybe not a strong class of 3yos?
Maybe the best are yet to come…
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Post by mysaladdays on May 9, 2023 9:56:37 GMT -5
I was looking at final Q times for all the prep races, Mage was in a very small group with final Q times that would have made me eliminate him as the winner.
As for angles, I don't believe in "making angles fit, after the race". Now somebody tells me "it was turn time that was the clue"........after same person was using final Q for other years as an "main" angle.
Point is, you can't use EVERY ANGLE. There are too many.
And any horse who wins the KY Derby, we can go back and look at our notes and "find a reason they won". Pertinent to the outcome, of course, is that we USED that angle, more exclusively and gave it more weight than other angles.
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
Posts: 850
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Post by ozzy on May 9, 2023 10:48:37 GMT -5
Mage is talented no doubt. He definitely showed that talent in the FL Derby and I think made his move a bit too soon. He ran to that race on Saturday, but I'm still not one to use a horse with only 3 starts coming in to the KY Derby. I think those horses run more like Kingsbarns than Mage nearly every time and will continue to fade them. I think I'll be right more than wrong, just didn't happen this year and ran 2-3-4-5 as a result. We're on to Baltimore....
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