Preakness Futures

[Badactor]

For your consideration...
www.preakness.com/future-wager

[Badactor]

Preakness price currently 52-1 on my Kentucky Derby winner.

[merasmag]

i made sum2dollarbets yesterday
i have never taken these bets seriously so i
have a question
if i bet sum1 at 50-1 and they close at 12-1
is the 12-1 what i get?
signed
already know the answer but wouldn't overseas be better for this where u can actually
"lock-in"
i think?
basically 4 future reference but there is a wrigley book opening soon

[1hooper]

Rules page. www.preakness.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/FUTURE-WAGER-WIN-POOL-RULES-Final-.pdf

[Badactor]

Kentucky Derby scratches make for interesting Preakness prospects.

[merasmag]

3
Chase The Chaos
8
Disarm
15
Lord Miles
22
Rocket Can
23
Skinner
27
Verifying

[mysaladdays]

I did First Mission (9-1), Instant Coffee (40-1), Mandarin Hero (15-1) and All Other 3-year Olds (8-1)


My brain was scrambled from handicapping all day so I couldn't really think about it too hard, and usually don't spend $ on Futures wagers anyway.

Now that I've had time to look at the Futures board, Practical Move at 17-1, Verifying at 30-1, Jaces Road at 60-1, Kingsbarns at 18-1, Lord Miles at 60-1, and Rocket Can at 60-1 might have been better picks on my part.

[cherokeescot]

Don’t see Verifying, Jaces Road, Kingsbarns or Rocket Can showing up at Pimlico.

[cherokeescot]

Here are the final odds

[mysaladdays]

May 7, 2023 15:09:34 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Don’t see Verifying, Jaces Road, Kingsbarns or Rocket Can showing up at Pimlico.

Well then I guess it's good I didn't waste my money.  

Reason I usually only do Futures every 4-5 years if the mood strikes.  I'd rather use that money toward a $0.50 or $1.00 trifecta somewhere. 

[shoes]

First Mission was the horse I was interested in, but I didn't bite at the price.

[Badactor]

no hit show?
no practical move?

I had plans.

[ozzy]

First Mission at 6-1 in the only correct wager that could have been made. Horse rolls in this one.

[mysaladdays]

So I received some early Brisnet PPs. Final PPs not out yet.


Problem: Seems as though about 1/2 to 1/4 of the horses who were in the Preakness Future Wager that ran April 28th to May 6th are not even listed as probables yet? If true, this seems like a massive cash grab by Pimlico, since bettors are not refunded if their selection does not run in the Preakness, which is limited to a maximum of 14 starters..

And,right after the Derby Cox seemed to say none of his would go to the Preakness, but was still deliberating.  

From early Bris PPs:
Mage
Arabian Lion
Disarm
First Mission
Henry Q
National Treasure
Red Route One
Perform - supplemented for $150K?
Confidence Game
Chase the Chaos
Blazing Sevens
Il Miracolo


Combined with the official Preakness Future Wager (who they had listed in the official Preakness Future Wager who are not listed above):
Instant Coffee
Tapit Trice
Two Phil's - not going
Verifying
Sun Thunder
Skinner
Rocket Can
Reincarnate
Raise Cain
Mandarin Hero
Practical Move
Lord Miles
Kingsbarns
Jaces Road
Forte
Hit Show
Derma Sotogake
Cyclone Mischief
Continuar
Angel of Empire


So who is Perform, who I see paid the $150K Supplement to get into the race? I know nothing about this horse.

[mysaladdays]

May 11, 2023 13:59:49 GMT -5 ozzy said:

First Mission at 6-1 in the only correct wager that could have been made. Horse rolls in this one.

I thought that too but once I started going over the horses carefully I could see he could run 1st, but he could also run 3rd.  I believe Blazing Sevens was pointed to this race for a while now, and Chad Brown has won it a few times. And there are 3 Gun Runners in here, like Early Voting was.  And tons of RAN sirelines who often do well in this race.   We have riders who have won and/or made the trifecta multiple times as well.  

My initial thoughts are the Chase the Chaos isn't a very good gate horse.   Desormeaux could pull a win or place like he did with Exaggerator.  National Treasure is somewhat dangerous,too with JV aboard.  As is Rosario who I believe will be on Disarm.    I would reserve Henry Q for bottom of superfecta.  


Il Miracolo would be my super bomb if the race were run today.......off for 49 days is too long for the way I cap though which is why the word bomb applies. 


Note:  I don't wager the Preakness.  I enjoy doing the puzzle and have stats, angles, and such going back to 2010 on this race, and I like to see what pops up.   I practice my handicapping even when I don't wager on races.   I mostly only play Oaklawn but like to test my skill at other tracks, some of which I am truly snake bit at.  Putting together the puzzle is a good way to hone one's skills.  You get better at what you practice, IMHO. 

Is this a year when the "rested/new shooters" do well, or a year when horses who ran in the Derby do well?  That trend oscillates over time.  

[ozzy]

Perform is a Good Magic colt for Shug who won the Tesio in mid-April. The Preakness wager is a bit of a trap for me as unless the Derby horses won, it was highly unlikely many would run back on the short turn around.

I'm still all in on First Mission and think he ultimately ends up being the best colt in this crop if all goes well. I think he is special and I can tell you the farm has for a long time as well. Blazing Sevens is interesting, especially with Brown using this MO twice before and winning. I can see Mage running well again in Baltimore, no reason he should not. Confidence Game should be better 2nd of the long layoff and Disarm, I kind of like him for a big piece despite this being his 3rd race in 5 weeks. He had a late start to the year, should be getting cranked, and had a mild excuse in the Derby. I see a ton of early foot here potentially so Red Route One could resort to closing tactics and make a sweeping move late.... all that said, if First Mission doesn't win or run 2nd, I won't cash. The good thing is they will settle it on the track and each of us can be rewarding for having the correct opinion!

[1hooper]

Can he be as good as Bernardini who won the Preakness in his 4th start?

[5wide]

I missed the 6/1 on FM at William Hill, only on offer at 2/1 now.

Took a nibble on Red Route One at 33/1, 1/5 odds 1,2,3

[mysaladdays]

May 12, 2023 13:59:46 GMT -5 ozzy said:

Perform is a Good Magic colt for Shug who won the Tesio in mid-April. The Preakness wager is a bit of a trap for me as unless the Derby horses won, it was highly unlikely many would run back on the short turn around.

I'm still all in on First Mission and think he ultimately ends up being the best colt in this crop if all goes well. I think he is special and I can tell you the farm has for a long time as well. Blazing Sevens is interesting, especially with Brown using this MO twice before and winning. I can see Mage running well again in Baltimore, no reason he should not. Confidence Game should be better 2nd of the long layoff and Disarm, I kind of like him for a big piece despite this being his 3rd race in 5 weeks. He had a late start to the year, should be getting cranked, and had a mild excuse in the Derby. I see a ton of early foot here potentially so Red Route One could resort to closing tactics and make a sweeping move late.... all that said, if First Mission doesn't win or run 2nd, I won't cash. The good thing is they will settle it on the track and each of us can be rewarding for having the correct opinion!

TY for the info on Perform.   I would certainly not leave First Mission off a ticket, so I hope you do well.  I like the horses you like, I just haven't put them in order yet 

I AM a bit worried about National Treasure though.


And not sure I can see Red Route One in this race. I am even thinking maybe he won't even run in this.  Not sure about a deep closer in the Preakness?  Closer okay, but he's a deep closer and will be 10 lengths behind a lot of fast horses. 

So you are not concerned about the Bafferts I see?  


My longshot bomber is not going to be in the race.  I like him though and he is a nice miler type.