Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 27, 2018 11:55:46 GMT -5
As of today no defections from the race. Only eleven entered, and I think six can be eliminated from the first two spots. The big three preps produced three logical contenders, and I'll play against Serengeti Empress who will be overbet because of ridiculous win margins, comes back to earth against real competition, probable pace duel. Seems like this race is destined for low payouts unless you can find a price underneath.
Most likely winners: Bellafina (E), Jaywalk (E), Restless Rider (P).
Other win candidates: None.
Can use underneath: closers Sippican Harbor (P), Cassies Dreamer (S) (with a better start/different rider).
Running Style: (E)= Early speed; (P)= Pace tracker; (S)= Sustained late run.
Post by cherokeescot on Nov 1, 2018 15:52:54 GMT -5
I’m also rooting for Sippican Harbor whose connections will be delighted if the conditions are sloppy. My main concern on her though is that Joel Rosario has decided to ride Jaywalk instead . Not often you see a jockey coming off a Grade 1 winner . Rosario rides a lot for Contessa so his agent must think there is quite a class gap between Jaywalk and Sippican Harbor.
Irad not a bad replacement though..... Not sure what to make of Sippican Harbor. Romps on front end in the slop, closes like a freight train last out. By Orb who rolled on this track on the slop out of a Deputy Minister mare so moisture no problem (although as of this typing it has stopping raining in Louisville). I just don’t like this race but forced I am RR - SH- Jaywalk I think..... Now watch Serengeti Empress destroy the field by 10.
In the Billy's Machine Made Scotch Juvenile Fillies, I have to go with Serengeti Empress (7/2). I thought her Ellis win was a fluke against a bad field and tried to beat her in the Pocahontas. Bad idea. She draws well for the two-turn race at the distance and track at which she won the last time. There is enough speed in the race to make Sippican Harbor (12/1) a strong play assuming they take her at least a bit off the pace, a place she found herself by accident in her impressive Spinaway win. Bellafine (2/1) would be no surprise but her post suggests that she may have to be used early.