Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 22, 2018 8:20:24 GMT -5
Thoughts before the pre-entries:
Whitmore- 6F record 13/ 9-2-1. If all the front-end speed shows up for this race, a stalker could sit a nice open pocket trip. Several other horses fit that bill, Roy H, Limousine Liberal, Imperial Hint. This race is always a head scratcher for me. Maybe put three logicals on top, find a couple of big-price closers/turnbacks to hit the exacta. Won't spent a lot of money on a race where a bad start = doom.
I think Limousine Liberal was easily best last out a Keeneland with a horrendous rail trip. The horse has a big affinity for CD, especially if any moisture in the track. Would prefer 7f but will likely use with Imperial Hint and a closer to be named later
Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 28, 2018 11:10:21 GMT -5
Looks like a field of twelve will go. Imperial Hint is a beast at 6F, has stellar wet track record, too. Also 3 for 3 at TAM . Limousine Liberal would be favored if this race were run at 7F, or even 6.5F. Loves this CD surface, 3 for 3 when wet. Promises Fulfilled is pure speed. Romans decided to make him into a sprinter after the TC. Go with him at your own peril, he's going to be on the lead. Roy H defending champ looks the part, will sit just off the pace, think he'd prefer an outside post draw. Whitmore has been banging heads with some of these all year, would likely benefit if XY Jet and Promises Fulfilled go medieval early. Another who'd prefer an outside post. XY Jet may not be the monster he was two years ago, but he's still lightning fast, training very well up to the race.
Most likely winners: Roy H (P), Whitmore (S).
Other win candidates: Imperial Hint (E).
Can use underneath: Limousine Liberal (S), Promises Fulfilled (E).
Running Style: (E)= Early speed; (P)= Pace tracker; (S)= Sustained late run.
What Gooch said. Sprinting is tough on the body so I like horses in great form without much regard to class, and the front runners have the best chance to make their own luck in a race that requires a lot. Watch how PromisesFulfilled bounds out of gate to take the lead, and how game he is when other horses challenge him. Hoping he has the fitness edge in the loooong stretch over last year's exacta pair, and that they take a lot of $$.
Tom, remember that we saw Promises Fulfilled lay outside the speed at Saratoga when he ran his best race to date in the Amsterdam. However...recall that runner up Engage has absolutely no heart and hasn't run well since. In fact, the rest of the field in the Amsterdam is proving they're not much.
If Promises Fulfilled can rate outside for 3/8 and try to get the jump on Imperial Hint (who is an absolute beast), I'm sure trainer Dale Romans would take that trip all day, win or lose.
I can give him a pass for 7f in the slop and a mile in his previous at CD. A mile is way out of his range and nobody was competing with Sharp Azteca that day. My concern with Imperial Hint is more about someone getting to him late than it is the track. Roy H looked like a Clydesdale compared to him last year at Dmr and Imperial Hint had nothing for that big stride late. IH kicked away from Whitmore in the True North in the stretch, then lasted late against him at 6.5f when Whitmore's big grinding stride got him closer.
I think Imperial Hint is going to run huge on Saturday, but Roy H grabbed a perfect post for his style and can get the trip he wants. I'm not sure IH can hold him off this year either and Roy H has the look of a back to back BC champion to me.
Hint Hint: Romans offered one more quirk: The run-up in a six-furlong race at Churchill makes the race nearly 6 1/2 furlongs in distance. The run-up is because the starting gate isn't positioned in the gap where the chute and the clubhouse turn meet.
"At six furlongs when they start timing them, they're at a dead-run already," he said, noting the extra distance can lead to some eye-popping quarter-mile fractions. "This has to be one of the longest run-ups on any three-quarter-of-a-mile race."