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Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 9, 2023 15:20:20 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 10, 2023 9:03:54 GMT -5
Watched a bunch of replays and looked at charts. The rail, really anywhere inside the 3-path, has not been the place to be on the dirt track. Jockeys are avoiding it like there are alligators lurking down there ( ). Unless you are much the best, the winners are all finishing up the crown of the track, in the 4 or 5 path. Watch some replays from Feb. 11th (Sam F. Davis Stakes, etc.) and see what you think. www.youtube.com/@tampabaydowns7594/videosTW
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jolyb
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Post by jolyb on Mar 10, 2023 10:32:26 GMT -5
After watching the Sam F. Davis a couple of times, I am having difficulty liking any of the horses coming out of it in the Tampa Bay Derby. Each of them appear to me as if they will need to improve quite a lot to be competitive with some of the new faces.
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Post by Badactor on Mar 10, 2023 19:18:08 GMT -5
Failed to Menace.. great screen name.
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Post by cherokeescot on Mar 10, 2023 19:20:17 GMT -5
Spanky should use it for his next reincarnation
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Post by Badactor on Mar 10, 2023 19:43:01 GMT -5
The fellow in the video, he's OK... I'm much more interested in what you have to say, Tom. That's why I got here early right now,
so I could be first in line to read your point of view.
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Post by Badactor on Mar 11, 2023 10:20:39 GMT -5
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 11, 2023 11:03:14 GMT -5
Seems like Tampa Bay Derby has always played toward the outside for routes, looking thru the post positions of winners for about 16 years.
Destin #7, Tawrit #5, Osysseyus #7, Big Truck #6, King Guillermo #11, Tacitus #10 ..... it was unusual last year that Classic Causeway or Ring Weekend won from the #1 hole.
Even the PPs say "inside posts have poor win % blah blah blah.
Lasix Free horses (for entire career so far if you like this angle) Lord Miles,Classic Legacy, Dreaming of Kona, Groveland.
Do I like this angle? I do. The superfecta of last years KY Derby were 4 horses who had never received lasix in their careers. A friend of mine boxed those and did very well as you can imagine (only played the tri). The winner of The Belmont Stakes last year was also a horse who had never received lasix in career. LS winner at Gotham Stakes, same dealie. (yet we keep hearing 'bout how they need that shot in their neck every race).
OTOH, Pletcher horses can jump up after receiving 1st time lasix in a non graded stakes then not getting it for next stakes race, ditto Cox plays this game as well. Watched them do this many times, Cox hides them in non stakes races at Indiana, etc. where nobody is watching, before they make it to a big stakes race.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 11, 2023 11:49:24 GMT -5
Starting with the pick-3 in races 4-5-6.
R4- ALWn1x33000 4up f&m 8F turf
#6- Texas Shuffle (5-2) looks like a solid choice for Shug/Saez, but worried that she has weakened late too often. #4- Eau Claire (9-2) has come to life since arriving in FL, dominated weaker groups in last two. Delacour/Centeno are a potent team. #8- Saturday Night Girl (9-2) showed a new dimension last time under J. Ortiz, coming from off the pace. I haven't won with Leparoux in years, but the horse fits with these.
PICK3- 4,6,8/2,5,6/3,7,9 EX- 4,6/3,4,5,6,8
R5- HCP50000 4up f&m 7F
#2- Sterling Silver (4-1) just missed in GII Prioress which points her out, but needs to be closer early if the speed bias on dirt continues today. Ditto for #5- Tap Dance Fever (5-1) which goes for Bennett/Ferrer, she won the Wayward Lass here going two-turns in January. #6- Olivia Darling (6-1) has been a new filly since arriving in the Delgado barn, she'll show speed and looks dangerous in the Amo USA colors. Separate win bet.
WIN- 6
R6- MSW37000 3yo f 6F
#3- Ms. Bucchero (4-1) looks like a well meant FTS. Vinson trains (ed?) the much-older half brother Red Crescent, which won half-a-million $$ mostly at GP & GPW (Calder) but was still running this past December, winning a 7F AOC race right here at Tampa. #7- Broken Hearts Bay (3-1) has two good dirt starts here, leading rider Camacho should be flying late. #9- Kaely's Fantasy (12-1) is a FTS from Dennis Ward, from a fast family w/SW, good series of works.
EXBOX- 3,7,9
TW
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Mar 11, 2023 12:45:37 GMT -5
r3 - # 4 Roses by Liam, should have a dream trip and be fitter 2nd off the layoff. FTS ( Smooth Flyin Mike ) is the fav , love to bet against these. # 4 w, ex box 4,5,8 r4 - # 5 Prudent Song. Has 5fur speed and can carry it a mile, so I expect this one to be in front a long way. 2 for 2 on the TB turf. 3,4 & 8 look the main dangers. #5 w , ex's 5/3,4,8 3,4,8/5
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Post by Badactor on Mar 11, 2023 13:34:11 GMT -5
r4 - # 5 Prudent Song. Has 5fur speed and can carry it a mile, so I expect this one to be in front a long way. 2 for 2 on the TB turf. 3,4 & 8 look the main dangers. #5 w , ex's 5/3,4,8 3,4,8/5 Brilliant!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 11, 2023 13:35:20 GMT -5
r3 - # 4 Roses by Liam, should have a dream trip and be fitter 2nd off the layoff. FTS ( Smooth Flyin Mike ) is the fav , love to bet against these. # 4 w, ex box 4,5,8 r4 - # 5 Prudent Song. Has 5fur speed and can carry it a mile, so I expect this one to be in front a long way. 2 for 2 on the TB turf. 3,4 & 8 look the main dangers. #5 w , ex's 5/3,4,8 3,4,8/5 Great call on Prudent Song ($25.20)! Looked like he was going to be pressured all the way around, but they slowed it down it the middle quarters, and he had plenty left as the others all floated wide. TW
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Mar 11, 2023 13:35:20 GMT -5
r3 - # 4 Roses by Liam, should have a dream trip and be fitter 2nd off the layoff. FTS ( Smooth Flyin Mike ) is the fav , love to bet against these. # 4 w, ex box 4,5,8 r4 - # 5 Prudent Song. Has 5fur speed and can carry it a mile, so I expect this one to be in front a long way. 2 for 2 on the TB turf. 3,4 & 8 look the main dangers. #5 w , ex's 5/3,4,8 3,4,8/5 the FTS was good enough in r3
2 Smooth Flyin Mike L. Saez J. Cibelli 4.60 3.60 3.00 1 Rainbow's Pride P. Morales T. E. Hamm 5.60 4.80 6 Classic Mo Town M. Meneses S. A. Joseph, Jr. 6.00
hit the win and ex in r4
5 Prudent Song H. Villa-Gomez D. F. Hunt 25.20 11.80 8.00 8 Saturday Nite Girl J. R. Leparoux T. F. Proctor 6.80 5.00 2 Except Temptation P. Lopez T. Albertrani 14.20 Payoffs $2.00 EXACTA (5-8) $177.25
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docd
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Post by docd on Mar 11, 2023 13:37:26 GMT -5
r3 - # 4 Roses by Liam, should have a dream trip and be fitter 2nd off the layoff. FTS ( Smooth Flyin Mike ) is the fav , love to bet against these. # 4 w, ex box 4,5,8 r4 - # 5 Prudent Song. Has 5fur speed and can carry it a mile, so I expect this one to be in front a long way. 2 for 2 on the TB turf. 3,4 & 8 look the main dangers. #5 w , ex's 5/3,4,8 3,4,8/5 Nice. I keyed 2@40/1 ...ran third, think I had a show bet? $14.20......Noooooooooooooooooooooooo
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 11, 2023 13:37:51 GMT -5
r3 - # 4 Roses by Liam, should have a dream trip and be fitter 2nd off the layoff. FTS ( Smooth Flyin Mike ) is the fav , love to bet against these. # 4 w, ex box 4,5,8 r4 - # 5 Prudent Song. Has 5fur speed and can carry it a mile, so I expect this one to be in front a long way. 2 for 2 on the TB turf. 3,4 & 8 look the main dangers. #5 w , ex's 5/3,4,8 3,4,8/5 Bravo! That was a nice pick Hope you played the trifecta too
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Mar 11, 2023 13:40:12 GMT -5
Thanks everyone , actually backed my opinion a little heavier than normal. win and ex . Bonus, he's in my Faux stable.
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 11, 2023 14:38:06 GMT -5
A trip handicapper might check out super bomb longshot #10 in the Tampa Bay Derby---- he's been bumped......and bumped.......and bumped. Then in 1m route race was "coming late" at AQ. I think this horse is better than he's looked.
Might put a single on him.
Maybe play with the lasix free horses and the Tapit chalk
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Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 11, 2023 14:53:52 GMT -5
R7- Columbia Stakes
#3- A Western Yarn (12-1) was just waiting for two-turns on grass apparently. Delacour/Centeno again, might hit the front and never look back. #9- Mo Stash (7-2) I remember from the BC Juv Turf, he was an AE and drew in late so I never looked at his form, but he ran pretty damn good first time at a route, made the lead in the stretch and gave way late at 52-1. Progressive colt gets FTL and Saez.
WIN- 9 EX- 3,9/1,3,5,9,10
TW
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Mar 11, 2023 15:00:46 GMT -5
r8 - #4 Classic Causeway, back on the dirt and looks like he has no company out front. 2for 2 on TB dirt. r9 - #7 Scottish star, same, should be alone on the front end . r10 - #6 Navy Goat, big fan of Delacour on the turf, improving sort, had an awkward start last, should be close.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Mar 11, 2023 15:02:21 GMT -5
A trip handicapper might check out super bomb longshot #10 in the Tampa Bay Derby---- he's been bumped......and bumped.......and bumped. Then in 1m route race was "coming late" at AQ. I think this horse is better than he's looked. Might put a single on him. Maybe play with the lasix free horses and the Tapit chalk interesting.
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 11, 2023 15:09:25 GMT -5
Also just noticed that Groveland is not TC nominated. He will have to run great today if the owners even think about supplementing him
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Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 11, 2023 15:12:24 GMT -5
R9- Hillsborough Stakes G2
#7- Scotish Star (6-1) could control the pace, although I think Chad entered Kali Queen to help her stablemates who prefer something to run at.
TRI- 7/2,6/ALL
R10- Florida Oaks G3
Hoping that Chad's #10- Free Look (2-1) makes quick work of this field, and a bomb gets second.
TRI- 10/ALL/3,6,11
TW
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Mar 11, 2023 15:14:51 GMT -5
R9- Hillsborough Stakes G2 #7- Scotish Star (6-1) could control the pace, although I think Chad entered Kali Queen to help her stablemates who prefer something to run at. TRI- 7/2,6/ALL TW Good luck to us on this one !!
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 11, 2023 15:20:26 GMT -5
I also like you guys picks A western yarn and navy goat. Hope they win or run ITM. So I will give my super longshot bomb in R12, Lance's Smile #11. Stretching out but at 30-1 a Candy Ride can do that.
I never play the super high fives, wish I did in R7, I had 2 superfecta boxes: 10-9-3-1 and 10-9-6-1.........had a I made a super high I would have gotten $834. Almost doesn't count though, esp. when you dont' even place the darn wager! I had used Summer Bee before ---
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Mar 11, 2023 15:20:30 GMT -5
Looking for Tax to complete the ex under Skippy.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 11, 2023 15:27:11 GMT -5
Also just noticed that Groveland is not TC nominated. He will have to run great today if the owners even think about supplementing him Agreed, but I think his owners have a couple of bucks put away... . TW
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 11, 2023 15:30:41 GMT -5
Looking for Tax to complete the ex under Skippy. That looks good. I mmight throw the #3 in there with yours
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Mar 11, 2023 15:33:36 GMT -5
Can nominate by Monday March 27 for $6,000.
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Post by mysaladdays on Mar 11, 2023 15:44:03 GMT -5
Can nominate by Monday March 27 for $6,000. TY for that info. Hope he does well
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Mar 11, 2023 15:47:59 GMT -5
one for Aqueduct
R7 - # 2 Bella Principessa , off the layoff trainer is 20% , +1.39, loves the slop , steady works since Dec.
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