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BC Filly & Mare Turf 2022
Oct 13, 2022 8:05:33 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 13, 2022 8:05:33 GMT -5
REPLAYS:
Longchamp, Prix de l'Opera (GI, 10F), Oct. 2nd
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822982
York, Yorkshire Oaks (GI, 12F), Aug. 18th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/107/york/2022-08-18/813942
Keeneland, First Lady Stakes (GI, 8F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE100822USA8.pdf
Saratoga, Flower Bowl Stakes (GI, 11F), Sep. 3rd
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=09/03/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Santa Anita, Rodeo Drive Stakes (GI, 10F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA100822USA5.pdf
Woodbine, E.P. Taylor Stakes (GI, 10F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/WO100822CAN9.pdf
Early speed: Lady Speightspeare, In Italian, Toy
Closer: Moira, Rougir, Tuesday
Form Analysis:
Lady Speightspeare- Last two races were GIII-wins on the AW, where she is undefeated in three starts. Won GII Nassau Stakes at Woodbine in July going a mile, this will be her first attempt beyond 8.5F since the Hillsborough (GII) at TAM where she faded to fourth. A bridge too far for her, especially in GI company. Grade- D
Going to Vegas- She's back for another go after inexplicably stopping badly in the stretch last year at Del Mar, although that was at 11F. Shorter distance this year will benefit her. Hasn't missed the board in five CA starts this year, and beat Family Way to once again take the GI Rodeo Drive (GI) when last seen. Nice mare, if she's tenth or better she can head off to the breeding shed as a millionaire as well as a multiple GI-winner.
Grade- C
Nashwa- Progressive 3yo Frankel filly (7/4-1-2) finished third behind Tuesday and Emily Upjohn in her fourth career outing in the Epsom Oaks, rewarding the faith the Gosdens had in her. She put up brilliant victories in her next two GI starts in the Prix de Diane and Nassau Stakes, and was very game in defeat behind Place du Carrousel in the Prix de l'Opera, finishing a head in front of Above the Curve. Hollie Doyle will look to wow the American viewers with a victory, and I'm here for all of it. Grade- A
Above the Curve- 3yo daughter of American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare has been highly progressive through six starts, won the GI Prix Saint-Alary (10F) at Longchamp over eventual Prix de l'Opera winner Place du Carrousel, then was third behind her and Nashwa in her most recent effort. Ryan Moore is committed to Tuesday, so Joseph O'Brien reaches out to Johnny V, who has had good success for him. Drew well in PP four and could easily get overlooked in here. Think she drifts up from m/l odds of 9-2. Big chance. Grade- A
Tuesday- Meanwhile at Ballydoyle, Aidan O'Brien is in the somewhat rare position of being the underdog, and with the Oaks winner to boot! Tuesday has done little wrong in eight starts this year, running a distant fourth in an ambitious Irish Derby attempt, then going a close-up fourth and sixth in two runs at Longchamp on soft ground, over which we can conclude she is less effective. 12F would seem to be her best distance, but I don't think this will be too sharp for her if In Italian and others can go :47 early. I could see her going off fifth choice if the Moira train picks up steam. Don't sleep on her. Grade- B
Mise En Scene- ('Staging' in French) Will have to stage a huge forward jump to compete with this group, she just doesn't have the talent right now to do it. Grade- D
Toy- Second in the Irish Oaks over 12F on good ground is her claim to fame. Won a Listed race at Naas going a mile prepping for this three weeks ago. Presumably in here to give Ryan Moore a friendly escort/target while trying to ensure an honest pace. Toy's dam, You'resothrilling, is a remarkable producer of high-quality horses, including four GI-winners (Gleneagles, Marvellous, Happily, Joan of Arc.) She's by Storm Cat, out of Mariah's Storm (Rahy), which should ring a bell to an American audience. Here is her page: www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/680927/youresothrilling Grade- C
Family Way- Another which should be a millionaire after the race, albeit with only a single GIII-win on her card. She's run well at KEE twice, but the distance might be just a bit too short for her best. She does want firm ground. Could hit the board in an unexpectedly chaotic race. Grade- C
Rougir- Watching her 3yo races, I thought she could really dominate when they brought her stateside, but it hasn't turned out quite like that. Perhaps she needs some serious cut in the turf, like she had in France, to do her best running; she doesn't figure to see that here. She did well to win the GI E.P. Taylor last time after the pinball-named-Moira ducked out heading towards the far turn, costing her three lengths, but she kept on running and despite having to make up a lot of ground off of a sloooow pace (1:15 on firm), got up at the wire. Not sure if that was a good effort, or the rest of that field turned into pumpkins. Flavien Prat gets to try again, picturing another wide trip with her late-running style. Grade- C
Virginia Joy- Another Chad Brown trainee drawn outside. Consistent mare hasn't seen a fast pace, um, ever. Not sure how Irad decides to ride her, but she'd ideally want more distance, and a smaller field. Having said that, this just the kind of Chad that I dismiss and it comes back to bite me, off a 'GI-win', but you can't bet 'em all. Grade- C
In Italian- The likely pacesetter has been smoothly progressive through eight career starts, never off-the-board. She's untested beyond 9F, but her pedigree says it shouldn't be an issue. Should be a fascinating chess match to see how the pace develops, and who's involved. After the 9F win in the GI Diana, and her First Lady (GI) feat of strength, only a European horse can down her IMO. Grade- A
Moira- Fun fact: She's named after Canadian actress Catherine O'Hara's character from Schitt's Creek, as the horse is a CAN-bred too (Adena Springs.) First five starts came on the AW at Woodbine, where she won the WO Oaks by ten lengths, and the Queen's Plate against colts by seven in track record time. Switched to the Turf for the E. P. Taylor, she ran very unevenly, though whether that was due to operator error, or greenness, is debatable (I think Hernandez screwed it up.) After shoving Rougir towards the outside rail for a better look at the barn area, she was bottled up behind horses entering the stretch, and Hernandez ducked towards the rail, sawing off Lemista and giving Luis Contreras a whiff of the 3/16 pole. Eventually, Moira got the courage to go through the hole that finally opened at the rail, but there was a litany of jockeys in her wake wanting a moment of the Stewards' time. Frankie Dettori gets to drive this go around, and he'll need all his magic from the outside draw. Yikes. Grade- C
Top selection(s)- Nashwa, Above the Curve, In Italian
Contenders- Tuesday
Must use underneath- All button
Got an opinion, post it here!
TW
Longchamp, Prix de l'Opera (GI, 10F), Oct. 2nd
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822982
York, Yorkshire Oaks (GI, 12F), Aug. 18th
Chart- www.racingpost.com/results/107/york/2022-08-18/813942
Keeneland, First Lady Stakes (GI, 8F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE100822USA8.pdf
Saratoga, Flower Bowl Stakes (GI, 11F), Sep. 3rd
Chart- www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=10&BorP=P&TID=SAR&CTRY=USA&DT=09/03/2022&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB
Santa Anita, Rodeo Drive Stakes (GI, 10F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/SA100822USA5.pdf
Woodbine, E.P. Taylor Stakes (GI, 10F), Oct. 8th
Chart- www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/WO100822CAN9.pdf
Early speed: Lady Speightspeare, In Italian, Toy
Closer: Moira, Rougir, Tuesday
Form Analysis:
Lady Speightspeare- Last two races were GIII-wins on the AW, where she is undefeated in three starts. Won GII Nassau Stakes at Woodbine in July going a mile, this will be her first attempt beyond 8.5F since the Hillsborough (GII) at TAM where she faded to fourth. A bridge too far for her, especially in GI company. Grade- D
Going to Vegas- She's back for another go after inexplicably stopping badly in the stretch last year at Del Mar, although that was at 11F. Shorter distance this year will benefit her. Hasn't missed the board in five CA starts this year, and beat Family Way to once again take the GI Rodeo Drive (GI) when last seen. Nice mare, if she's tenth or better she can head off to the breeding shed as a millionaire as well as a multiple GI-winner.
Grade- C
Nashwa- Progressive 3yo Frankel filly (7/4-1-2) finished third behind Tuesday and Emily Upjohn in her fourth career outing in the Epsom Oaks, rewarding the faith the Gosdens had in her. She put up brilliant victories in her next two GI starts in the Prix de Diane and Nassau Stakes, and was very game in defeat behind Place du Carrousel in the Prix de l'Opera, finishing a head in front of Above the Curve. Hollie Doyle will look to wow the American viewers with a victory, and I'm here for all of it. Grade- A
Above the Curve- 3yo daughter of American Pharoah out of a Galileo mare has been highly progressive through six starts, won the GI Prix Saint-Alary (10F) at Longchamp over eventual Prix de l'Opera winner Place du Carrousel, then was third behind her and Nashwa in her most recent effort. Ryan Moore is committed to Tuesday, so Joseph O'Brien reaches out to Johnny V, who has had good success for him. Drew well in PP four and could easily get overlooked in here. Think she drifts up from m/l odds of 9-2. Big chance. Grade- A
Tuesday- Meanwhile at Ballydoyle, Aidan O'Brien is in the somewhat rare position of being the underdog, and with the Oaks winner to boot! Tuesday has done little wrong in eight starts this year, running a distant fourth in an ambitious Irish Derby attempt, then going a close-up fourth and sixth in two runs at Longchamp on soft ground, over which we can conclude she is less effective. 12F would seem to be her best distance, but I don't think this will be too sharp for her if In Italian and others can go :47 early. I could see her going off fifth choice if the Moira train picks up steam. Don't sleep on her. Grade- B
Mise En Scene- ('Staging' in French) Will have to stage a huge forward jump to compete with this group, she just doesn't have the talent right now to do it. Grade- D
Toy- Second in the Irish Oaks over 12F on good ground is her claim to fame. Won a Listed race at Naas going a mile prepping for this three weeks ago. Presumably in here to give Ryan Moore a friendly escort/target while trying to ensure an honest pace. Toy's dam, You'resothrilling, is a remarkable producer of high-quality horses, including four GI-winners (Gleneagles, Marvellous, Happily, Joan of Arc.) She's by Storm Cat, out of Mariah's Storm (Rahy), which should ring a bell to an American audience. Here is her page: www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/680927/youresothrilling Grade- C
Family Way- Another which should be a millionaire after the race, albeit with only a single GIII-win on her card. She's run well at KEE twice, but the distance might be just a bit too short for her best. She does want firm ground. Could hit the board in an unexpectedly chaotic race. Grade- C
Rougir- Watching her 3yo races, I thought she could really dominate when they brought her stateside, but it hasn't turned out quite like that. Perhaps she needs some serious cut in the turf, like she had in France, to do her best running; she doesn't figure to see that here. She did well to win the GI E.P. Taylor last time after the pinball-named-Moira ducked out heading towards the far turn, costing her three lengths, but she kept on running and despite having to make up a lot of ground off of a sloooow pace (1:15 on firm), got up at the wire. Not sure if that was a good effort, or the rest of that field turned into pumpkins. Flavien Prat gets to try again, picturing another wide trip with her late-running style. Grade- C
Virginia Joy- Another Chad Brown trainee drawn outside. Consistent mare hasn't seen a fast pace, um, ever. Not sure how Irad decides to ride her, but she'd ideally want more distance, and a smaller field. Having said that, this just the kind of Chad that I dismiss and it comes back to bite me, off a 'GI-win', but you can't bet 'em all. Grade- C
In Italian- The likely pacesetter has been smoothly progressive through eight career starts, never off-the-board. She's untested beyond 9F, but her pedigree says it shouldn't be an issue. Should be a fascinating chess match to see how the pace develops, and who's involved. After the 9F win in the GI Diana, and her First Lady (GI) feat of strength, only a European horse can down her IMO. Grade- A
Moira- Fun fact: She's named after Canadian actress Catherine O'Hara's character from Schitt's Creek, as the horse is a CAN-bred too (Adena Springs.) First five starts came on the AW at Woodbine, where she won the WO Oaks by ten lengths, and the Queen's Plate against colts by seven in track record time. Switched to the Turf for the E. P. Taylor, she ran very unevenly, though whether that was due to operator error, or greenness, is debatable (I think Hernandez screwed it up.) After shoving Rougir towards the outside rail for a better look at the barn area, she was bottled up behind horses entering the stretch, and Hernandez ducked towards the rail, sawing off Lemista and giving Luis Contreras a whiff of the 3/16 pole. Eventually, Moira got the courage to go through the hole that finally opened at the rail, but there was a litany of jockeys in her wake wanting a moment of the Stewards' time. Frankie Dettori gets to drive this go around, and he'll need all his magic from the outside draw. Yikes. Grade- C
Top selection(s)- Nashwa, Above the Curve, In Italian
Contenders- Tuesday
Must use underneath- All button
Got an opinion, post it here!
TW
