LARRY'S PICKS for the 150th Belmont Stakes!
Jun 5, 2018 17:48:51 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Jun 5, 2018 17:48:51 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 150th Belmont Stakes, the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown! For nearly 30 years I’ve told people that it takes “speed and stamina” to win the Belmont. It is rare to see the winner not blessed with a blend of both attributes. A relatively large field of 10 is poised to meet the starter in this 1 ½ mile “Test of a Champion” at beautiful Belmont Park, most hoping to derail the Triple Crown bid of JUSTIFY who of course prevailed in the first 2 legs of the series! As usual, my analysis will be in the order of favoritism as I see the betting public setting the post time odds, with my personal “Selection” page on display at the end. I hope you enjoy the 150th Belmont Stakes!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(#1) JUSTIFY 6-5 JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
While seriously challenged for the first time in the Preakness, this son of SCAT DADDY nonetheless remains perfect and now he seeks to join SEATTLE SLEW as the only undefeated Triple Crown winners in history! The May 29th A.M. “bullet” move at Churchill notwithstanding, I suspect there is vulnerability herein as the colt prepares to make his 6th start in 16 weeks. 1 of only 2 projected prime speeds from my perspective, we can expect Mike Smith to try and control the pace from flag fall to finish and they will likely have to catch him in the late stages to beat him.
(#3) BRAVAZO 5-1 JOCKEY – LUIS SAEZ
This D. Wayne Lukas trainee fell out of the superfecta placings midstretch in Baltimore only to find a 2nd gear and come on again stoutly for the place dough. His ½ length loss is the closest anyone has gotten to JUSTIFY thus far and many will see him as the likeliest candidate to dethrone the champ. Saez will likely sit a few lengths off the pace and try to employ a “stalk and pounce” strategy with a well timed midstretch move. Given all the excitement he generated last out, he may be overbet in this spot!
This son of PROUD CITIZEN showed a new dimension when he won the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes over this track on May 12th. Traditionally a late runner in most of his races, he stayed closer to the pace that day over a surface that had some moisture in it. Upon close inspection the trip may have been more a product of the shorter field he faced compared to his recent races but the versatility was on display nonetheless. He is a curious item on at least 2 fronts this time out. He is the lone runner in here to have ever raced over “big sandy” as the Belmont main track is often referred to. While that could be a plus, a potential negative is that he has not done his best work over dirt surfaces rated “fast”! In 4 such scenarios he has yet to hit the board. LARRY’S PICKS 2014 top selection TONALIST was the last runner to complete the Peter Pan Stakes / Belmont Stakes double and absent some unexpected moisture in the surface on Saturday, I don’t think BLENDED CITIZEN will be the next!
(#4) HOFBURG 10-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
This well bred son of TAPIT finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby following a less than ideal trip and he has worked well since at his Saratoga base. Maternal grandsire TOUCH GOLD won this race in 1997 and if HOFBURG improves just a bit, he could garner a share while making only his 5th lifetime start. Look for him in the late stages, if at all!
(#7) TENFOLD 12-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
Bothered a bit at the 7/8ths marker, this son of CURLIN came oh so close to making the Preakness edition of LARRY’S PICKS “great again” only to be “trumped” by a resurgent BRAVAZO in the shadow of the wire! My 2nd choice behind my top choice winner and the longest shot on the board in Baltimore at 26-1, he lost it all by less than a length. That said, he continues to build on an ascending speed figure pattern and another forward move is not beyond the realm of possibility for the lightly raced colt.
This colt by CURLIN got off to a slow start in the Kentucky Derby last out but managed to pass several tiring runners in the latter stages finishing 9th, beaten 10 lengths. The Grade II Wood Memorial winner in his penultimate start has worked well since the Derby and could be poised to show better. Contention runs deep in what appears to be a terrific betting affair.
(#6) GRONKOWSKI 16-1 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
This interloper from Great Britain has won 4 straight over 3 different all weather surfaces after failing to face the lensman in his first 2 starts over the turf. While bred in Kentucky, he has campaigned exclusively across the pond where they carry more weight in their races. He gets his lightest weight assignment yet while picking up Jose Ortiz, the hero of last years’ Belmont aboard LARRY’S PICKS top selection TAPWRIT! I expect Ortiz to assume a stalking posture and give the colt every chance to prove that he is good enough when the serious running begins!
(#2) FREE DROP BILLY 19-1 JOCKEY – ROBBY ALBARADO
This colt by 2012 Belmont winner UNION RAGS threw in a real clunker in the Kentucky Derby last out. Drawn in a difficult inside post, he broke a bit slow but then moved into a midpack position less than half a dozen lengths back of the leaders. Stuck down inside, he never seemed to get settled and at one point in the race he dropped from 8th to last before coming back on to finish 16th. He has worked extremely well over a “fast” track at Churchill Downs since and my inclination is to toss the Derby effort over the extreme sloppy conditions that prevailed that day. Aside from JUSTIFY he is the lone Grade I Stakes winner in this field having captured the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last Fall beating among others, Triple Crown series campaigners LONE SAILOR and BRAVAZO! I expect him to fly under the radar on the toteboard and if he draws some stamina influence from the damside, he could rebound in a big way and post the upset.
The 2nd runner being saddled by Trainer Todd Pletcher is this grandson of 1992 Belmont winner A.P. INDY who occupied the top slot on LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page 26 years ago! This lightly raced Kentucky bred misfired in the Derby and he has much more speed than he was able to demonstrate over the sloppy track in Louisville. I would expect him to be closest to JUSTIFY early on and that could take a toll when the serious running begins.
(#5) RESTORING HOPE 29-1 JOCKEY – FLORENT GEROUX
While trying to win the Triple Crown with JUSTIFY, trainer Bob Baffert nonetheless must pay attention to other owner connections who feel the need to be a part of the festivities. He also trains this colt by GIANT’S CAUSEWAY and while less accomplished than many signed on, he nonetheless deserves a chance to show what he can do against the best in the division! 3rd behind VINO ROSSO 2 back in the Wood Memorial, if you like 1 of them I suppose you could like both. While not impossible for a piece, neither will make LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page!
“SELECTIONS”
(#2) FREE DROP BILLY 19-1 JOCKEY – ROBBY ALBARADO
On Travers Day in 2007 I had a very interesting conversation with Robby Albarado. Over the years I’ve always sought player autographs on my analysis when something special was produced therein. Jerry Bailey on the SEA HERO Derby write-up. Julie Krone when I tabbed her and COLONIAL AFFAIR on top in the Belmont. Pletcher and Borel on my Derby write-up tabbing SUPER SAVER as the one that would finally put Todd in the Derby “Winners’ Circle”! Then in 2014 came what I would consider the ultimate item from a classic standpoint. I caught up to the players in Saratoga to autograph my Belmont analysis that tabbed the “cold” exacta for $348.00 when I spotted CALIFORNIA CHROME 3rd in predicting he would not win the Triple Crown. Joel Rosario autographed the “Selection” page as the victorious rider of TONALIST. Javier Castellano was reminded just how brilliant his ride was on COMMISSIONER and he thankfully added his autograph to the page but the best was yet to come. Later on I caught up to legendary race caller Tom Durkin as he was about to retire and he autographed my 2014 Belmont analysis “From One Great Call To Another”!
Getting back to the 2007 Travers Day, the race wasn’t much of a puzzle as this game goes and the anticipated returns were modest at best. That said my “Selection” page was occupied by only 2 runners who ran in the order listed. Calvin Borel rode Derby winner STREET SENSE to victory over GRASSHOPPER who was ridden well by Albarado but was simply 2nd best! Getting Calvin’s autograph was easy as he had just won. As I approached Robby however my sense was to be apologetic since I had spotted him 2nd. He was the consummate gentleman as he autographed the page he remarked “sir, there is no need to apologize. I’ll take 2nd in a million dollar race every time”! FREE DROP BILLY began his career and got good around this time last year. By a Belmont winner out of a GIANT’S CAUSEWAY mare, if he draws some stamina influences from the damside, Robby may not have to settle for 2nd best in this million dollar race!
(#7) TENFOLD 12-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
Solid connections bring this improving colt to the Belmont and another forward move could put him in the picture. He has a good tracking gear and will probably get the first jump on the others as they try to run down the favorite.
(#1) JUSTIFY 6-5 JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
He has done everything asked of him so far and if left alone on the pace he could become our 13th Triple Crown winner! If so, he will have defeated the largest field in Belmont history to earn it!
LL
